Lincoln's 2009 MLB Draft Board

As college and high school regular seasons come to a close it’s time for the latest incarnation of my 2009 MLB draft board. [insert trumpet sounds] It’s been about six weeks since the last draft board and as a result there are plenty of changes this time around.

Tanner Scheppers shoots into the top five due to positive reports on his health and velocity after a shoulder injury cost him time last year and made contract negotiations with the Pirates somewhat acrimonious. When healthy, like he now seems to be, Scheppers has as good an arm as anyone in this draft – other than Strasburg. He toyed with hitters in 2008 as a Fresno State bulldog, using his mid-to-upper 90’s fastball and killer slider to rack up a 40.1% strikeout rate. A poor follow through was the likely culprit behind Scheppers’ shoulder problems last year, but that can be remedied relatively easily. Scheppers could go as high as No. 2 overall to Seattle, should they decide against Dustin Ackley, but won’t fall out of the top 10 if he stays healthy.

Rich “The Kodiak Bear” Poythress continues to be Brett Wallace east this year. In a draft devoid of many high profile college hitters Poythress provides a sense of security and upside that only Ackley can match. You might see Billy Beane tap-dancing on the set of “Moneyball” if the Georgia first baseman is still on the board at No. 13.

The strength of this draft class was supposed to be college pitching, but my doubts as to Kyle Gibson, Alex White, and Aaron Crow’s abilities to stay healthy means that a guy like Mike Leake gets bumped up the board a little bit. A deep pitch repertoire, terrific command, good mechanics, natural athleticism, and a strong statistical profile all give Leake one of the highest floors in this draft. In a somewhat weak draft filled with uncertainty (even guys I do like, James Paxton, Sam Dyson, Alex Wilson come with a good deal of uncertainty) Leake should go in the middle of the first round. Cleveland at No. 16 would be an ideal fit, but he could be in play as early as Washington at No. 10 if they want to save some money after negotiations with Strasburg and the baseball Anti-Christ Scott Boras.

I’ve tempered my enthusiasm for Indiana University catcher Josh Phegley slightly as there is a real possibility he does not remain at catcher long-term. I still believe in his bat, and value catcher defense less than most, but he would lose a lot of value if he were a left fielder or first baseman. The rest of the baseball industry remains much more bearish on Phegley than I, so he’ll have to wait until the supplemental or second round to be picked. Whoever gets him at that kind of value will win the draft.

I am a Sam Dyson believer. With elite arm strength and an out pitch breaking ball Dyson has front of the rotation upside. He hasn’t dominated to the extent you want in a college pitcher with his kind of stuff, but he projects very well to the highest level. He has strong mechanics but needs to repeat a bit better, good coaching and experience can fix this and improve his command.

Jared Mitchell takes the biggest fall on this list. After flashing top 10 talent early in the year, the strikeout bug came back. Despite his tools and good production for LSU, anyone who strikes out 23.8% of the time is not a first round pick.

A trio of high profile college pitchers fell off my list this week in Andrew Oliver, Alex White and Aaron Crow. With Oliver the reason is his lack of a breaking ball, he’s basically a one-pitch pitcher at this point and that makes him too much of a project as a college pitcher to invest a first round pick in. With White and Crow the reason is mechanical. Though they have different motions; both pitchers hyperabduct their elbows severely leading to an injury plagued future. Both White and Crow have the stuff to be high leverage relievers, but without major adjustments to their motions neither will have long careers as starters.

I’m usually a little bit leery of the pop-up guy from the Northeast who seems to come out of nowhere each spring. But I haven’t spoken to anyone who’s seen Mike Trout and not walked away very impressed. He plays the game with Aaron Rowand type intensity, and shows natural instincts and tools that should help him overcome his relative inexperience.

Feel free to share your opinions/questions in our College/Draft Forum.