2009 Quantitative Draft Analysis

With conference tournaments coming to an end and the draft just a few weeks away, I figured this was the best time to bust out my quantitative draft rankings. We here at Project Prospect always aim to give you the best in informed, unique, objective analysis and these rankings come directly from that vein.

I've detailed my ranking methodology in the past, but a quick refresher. I've developed an algorithm focusing on multi-season trends in quantitative data. I adjust for park, age, position, and conference effects and compare current players to a database of previous draftees. This data is just a part of the picture and is meant to be used in tandem with scouting information to get a full picture of a player's ability.

Onto the numbers! For this particular article I've decided to focus on the players most likely to be drafted highly. By my counting there are 16 college position player who are likely to go on the first day of the MLB daft, it's these player we'll take a look at today.

UNC's Dustin Ackley, the college first baseman who projects as a center fielder in the pros, rates as the No. 2 overall prospect on my draft board. Ackley's the clear top prospect in this group, scoring above average in every category. I plan on a more in-depth post soon, seeing just how well Ackley scores in my system compared to some of the best from recent drafts. So I'll skip with my Ackley love and move onto other parts of this list.

Jason Kipnis of Arizona Stat is generally thought of as a guy with average tools, who might not quite have the range to play center and might not quite have the power for a corner outfield spot. While he may not have a plus tool, his on-base ability is elite. You can't really find a hole in anything Kipnis has done in college. A fourth round pick of the Padres last year, Kipnis is a likely second round selection this June. I'll take my chances on a guy with 2nd-3rd round tools and first round production.

Marc Krauss and Rich Poythress come out almost dead even, and that makes sense. Both are corner guys with good power and patience who've been very productive. As a third baseman, Krauss gets a positional boost but Poythress gets benefits from his park and strength of schedule. I've been upfront about my love for Rich "The Kodiak Bear" Poythress, but Krauss deserves plenty of praise as one of the best hitters in the country.

I'm surprised by how well Sacramento State's Tim Wheeler scored in this system. His .385/.494/.765 line gets a nice park boost and when coupled with terrific contact ability makes for the second best 2009 score. Wheeler projects as a good defender in center, well above-average runner but with somewhat questionable power. Wheeler has a few mechanical questions in his swing, he turns his hips too early and has an unusual toe-tap that throws off is balance, so there is reason to question his recent power spike. His isolated power went from .114 in 2008 to .410 this year, expect some power regression. His marginal walk rate is offset somewhat by his positional value. Tim Wheeler has shown terrific growth this spring.

Golden Domer AJ Pollock rates as nearly identical to Wheeler, with a little better contact rate but a little less power. Both Tim Wheeler and Pollock are possible first round picks, with good speed and solid all around tools.

Personal favorite IU catcher Josh Phegley just keeps hitting. While generally thought of as a lesser prospect than BC's backstop Tony Sanchez, Phegley has a clear statistical advantage. Phegley's combination of plus patience and well above-average contact ability and power make him a good bet to keep hitting as a big leaguer. He's a relatively poor defender, but not completely hopeless. If he stays as a catcher he projects as an elite hitter, but even if he has to shift to a corner he could be solid-average offensively and still a possible everyday player.

After Phegley's there is a big drop off. A score under 480 tends to spell doom for a players ability to be a productive big league hitter. Loyola Marymount first baseman Ryan Wheeler uses his great contact ability to just sneak above the 480 line. Wheeler's a good all-around hitter who has below-average power for a first baseman.

Clemson's Ben Paulsen hasn't shown the patience or power usually demonstrated by elite college first basemen. With very little value outside of this bat, Paulsen will need to show more of the power he displayed as a sophomore (45.6% XBH in 2008) in order to have a successful big league career.

Possible top 10 pick Grant Green scores poorly in my system. The drop off in power (his IsoP dropped 60 points from 2008 to 2009) and lack of improvement in his walk and strikeout rates are bad signs for a player who wasn't productive enough as a sophomore to warrant high round consideration.

BC's Tony Sanchez made good improvement this year, but his very poor 2008 season keeps his overall score down. My system sees a hitter with average power, poor patience, and iffy contact ability - which isn't a good recipe for a big league hitter. Sanchez has the tools and reputation to profile as a good defender and could have a decent future as a long time big league backup.

The rest of the list is rounded out by good athletes with intriguing sets of tools who just don't make enough contact to think they will hit big league pitching. LSU's Jared Mitchell might be the most likely to outperform his poor projection, as the former football player has only recently fully devoted his full athletic attention to baseball. There is reason to believe Mitchell could keep improving more than the average college hitter; if he comes close to reaching his upside, he would be a special player.

Feel free to get mad at Lincoln for Tony Sanchez being ranked too high or too low. Email him at lhamilton@projectprospect.com