I'm having a stare-down with 2009's first rounders. They're muggin' me. Twenty percent of my top 10 draft prospects fell out of the first round. One of them even told me that he thought he could be selected in the second round (Rich Poythress). I told him I thought he would go higher. He went in the second round...I was wrong.
Here's what I know:
1. MLB teams invest a lot more time into the draft that I do.
2. Only one (1) team needs to be high on a guy for him to be an "overdraft".
3. Selection number should be taken with a grain of salt; signing bonus should be taken with a pinch of sodium chloride.
Stephen Strasburg.
Here's what I know:
1. If I didn't mention him in the first 150 words of this piece, I would have lost 50% of my audience.
2. His changeup is observed in action about as frequently as the Iberian Lynx.
3. MLB Network embarrassed itself with the way it treated Tony Gwynn.
Tenth overall pick Drew Storen has already signed (for $1.6 million). Last year's No. 10 pick, Jason Castro, signed for $2.07 million. Ben Sheets, the 10th pick of 1999, signed for $2.45 million.
Here's what I know:
1. Along with Tony Sanchez and Matt Hobgood, Storen was one of the biggest overdrafts -- or signability picks -- this year.
2. If the Nationals failed to sign Storen, they would not have been granted a compensation pick.
3. Storen has been added to more fantasy rosters than Tanner Scheppers.
The A's selected college second baseman Jemile Weeks 12th overall in 2008. Oakland selected college shortstop Grant Green 13th overall in 2009.
Here's what I know:
1. Green and Weeks were both thought of as potential top 10 overall talents entering their junior seasons. But both entered the draft with concerns. Weeks walked in 11.9% of his junior season plate appearances and had been dealing with leg injuries. Green only walked in 8.4% of his junior season plate appearances, missed time with an ankle injury, and...dealt with a wrist injury?
2. Most of our resident A's fans were flabbergasted with the Green pick.
3. Moneyball, a book about Brad Pitt, details an approach to taking advantage of market inefficiencies, not taking pitches.
We had 252 participants in our draft chat (scroll down to see it). Not all of them voted, but when we asked A.J. Pollock or Jason Kipnis, 100% chose Kipnis.
Here's what I know:
1. We are strong believers that Kipnis' bat will be better in pro ball than Pollock's.
2. Pollock has more defensive value than Kipnis.
3. Defensive value...has a lot of value?
A High School All-American, Dustin Ackley had as extended of a track record as any hitting prospect in this class.
Here's what I know:
1. A lot of people saw Ackley as the second-best talent in this class entering the 2009 NCAA season.
2. An excellent pure hitter, Ackley impressed me as much as any college hitter I saw in 2007 -- this group includes Matt Wieters, Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, and Pedro Alvarez. Wieters is the only "prospect" above who I'd take over Ackley right now.
3. Alex White, who was seen as a RHP/1B when UNC recruited him, was considered the Tar Heel's top recruit in 2006 by many experts. Ackley was part of that class.
Lincoln Hamilton, our in-house draft expert, cited concerns basically with inefficient transfer of energy in Kyle Gibson's delivery near the start of the 2009 college season. Gibson's season was cut short due to a broken bone in his right forearm. The Twins took him 22nd overall.
Here's what I know:
1. The Twins know more about pitching mechanics than I do.
2. Lincoln has spent a lot of time educating himself on pitching mechanics.
3. I'd love to hear the Twins' opinion on Gibson's injury risk.
Mike Trout was swarmed by the media when he was selected 25th overall.
Here's what I know:
1. High school hitters come with so much uncertainty -- remember when Robert Stock was supposed to be one of the best prep hitting prospects in the 2007 Draft?
2. It was pretty awkward when the on-site media swarmed Trout.
3. We're going to spend the next year talking about Bryce Harper.
Adam Foster may not be a Dodgers' fan, but he appreciates the humor, personality, and wisdom that Tommy Lasorda continues to bring to baseball. Lasorda was one of the lone bright spots in MLB Network's golf-clap neutral presentation of the 2009 Draft.