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| Rk | Player | Pos | Comments | BB% | K% | Age | Org | Lvl | Pre | |||||||||
| 1 | Matt Wieters | C | Since AA, walks have dropped with every promotion, strikeouts up, power down | 13.8 | 16.2 | 23.1 | BAL | MLB | 1 ↔ | |||||||||
| 2 | Derek Holland | LHP | Has been stellar through 200+ MLB batters (17.6% K, 7.2% BB) -- poor HR rate | 7.2 | 25.7 | 22.7 | TEX | MLB | 12 ↑ | |||||||||
| 3 | Jason Heyward | RF | Has missed 3+ weeks with hip-flexor and oblique injuries in '09; .381 A+ wOBA | 9.5 | 14.9 | 19.9 | ATL | A+ | 9 ↑ | |||||||||
| 4 | Tommy Hanson | RHP | After walking 17 in 66.1 Triple-A innings, he has walked 17 in 29.0 MLB innings | 9.0 | 28.2 | 22.9 | ATL | MLB | 13 ↑ | |||||||||
| 5 | Brian Matusz | LHP | Struck out 13 on 5/8 (A+) and 10 on 6/17 (AA); 3 or fewer BB in 12-of-13 starts | 7.8 | 27.7 | 22.4 | BAL | AA | 23 ↑ | |||||||||
| 6 | Carlos Santana | C | Strong contact hitter with power and great walk rate; solid bet to stick at catcher | 15.0 | 14.5 | 23.2 | CLE | AA | 26 ↑ | |||||||||
| 7 | Justin Smoak | 1B | Strained oblique during most of June could have been sapping power -- .152 IsoP | 14.3 | 15.7 | 22.6 | TEX | AA | 16 ↑ | |||||||||
| 8 | Buster Posey | C | His bat is Double-A ready; very good in April, not good in May, outstanding in June | 13.3 | 12.7 | 22.3 | SF | A+ | 24 ↑ | |||||||||
| 9 | Chris Tillman | RHP | Walk rate surprisingly down from 11.2 in '08 (AA) to 7.0 in '09 (AAA, 298 TBF) | 10.2 | 25.2 | 21.2 | BAL | AAA | 29 ↑ | |||||||||
| 10 | Fernando Martinez | OF | Went loco in May (.326 IsoP, 6.1% BB, 12.2% K); likely average or better regular | 6.9 | 18.9 | 20.7 | NYM | MLB | 33 ↑ | |||||||||
| 11 | Jesus Montero | C/DH | Excellent contact hitter with decent power and his walk rate is up from A in A+AA | 7.3 | 13.8 | 19.6 | NYY | AA | 37 ↑ | |||||||||
| 12 | Mike Stanton | RF | He owned the Florida State League, but he may be overmatched in Double-A | 10.9 | 27.1 | 19.7 | FLA | AA | 21 ↑ | |||||||||
| 13 | Mat Gamel | 3B | Good all-around hitter could easily surface as an average regular -- LD specialist? | 10.0 | 19.5 | 24.0 | MIL | MLB | 53 ↑ | |||||||||
| 14 | Carlos Carrasco | RHP | Should reach bigs any day; walked 11.3% in AA (806 TBF), 7.1% in AAA (539) | 9.4 | 21.1 | 22.3 | PHI | AAA | 41 ↑ | |||||||||
| 15 | Matt LaPorta | 1B/LF | Solid bet to be an average MLB hitter; won't offer much defensive value, though | 9.6 | 17.9 | 24.5 | CLE | MLB | 14 ↓ | |||||||||
| 16 | Nick Weglarz | LF | Walk machine is posting career power numbers while posting a respectable K% | 15.8 | 20.4 | 21.6 | CLE | AA | 54 ↑ | |||||||||
| 17 | Dominic Brown | RF | Currently sidelined with a broken finger; IsoP way up from '08 (.126 vs. .241) | 10.9 | 16.4 | 21.8 | PHI | A+ | 69 ↑ | |||||||||
| 18 | Jarrod Parker | RHP | Mediocre FB command could be source of rise in walks, drop in Ks from A+ to AA | 7.5 | 23.4 | 20.6 | ARI | AA | 19 ↑ | |||||||||
| 19 | Madison Bumgarner | LHP | We saw him and weren't impressed with breaking ball; plus FB; big K% dip of late | 4.6 | 26.8 | 19.9 | SF | AA | 6 ↓ | |||||||||
| 20 | Yonder Alonso | 1B | Broke his hamate bone on 6/18; still figures to be big-league ready sometime in '10 | 11.5 | 14.0 | 22.2 | CIN | A+ | 27 ↑ | |||||||||
| 21 | Gordon Beckham | 3B | Blazed through the minors before we got a good look at him; good contact/power | 8.2 | 13.2 | 22.8 | CHW | MLB | 32 ↑ | |||||||||
| 22 | Pedro Alvarez | 3B | K rate has been over 24% every month; IsoP and BB are both pretty impressive | 12.3 | 25.9 | 22.4 | PIT | A+ | 10 ↓ | |||||||||
| 23 | Andrew McCutchen | CF | 2,000+ MiLB PA say he's a good contact hitter w/ some power and solid patience | 9.7 | 15.6 | 22.7 | PIT | MLB | 35 ↑ | |||||||||
| 24 | Vin Mazzaro | RHP | Talk about a smooth transition to the bigs; Mazzaro has cruised from AA to Oakland | 8.1 | 17.3 | 22.8 | OAK | MLB | 138 ↑ | |||||||||
| 25 | Desmond Jennings | CF | Has come to a screeching power halt in June, but his BB and K rates are still elite | 10.2 | 12.9 | 22.7 | TB | AA | 75 ↑ | |||||||||
| 26 | Jhoulys Chacin | RHP | Improved K% every month from April-May; elite command SP; close to MLB-ready | 6.6 | 21.4 | 21.5 | COL | AA | 28 ↑ | |||||||||
| 27 | Logan Morrison | 1B | Missed 2 months with a broken wrist to start the season; has been solid in AA | 10.4 | 16.1 | 21.9 | FLA | AA | 30 ↑ | |||||||||
| 28 | Hector Rondon | RHP | Pitching his finest yet and doing in in Double-A; 1 or fewer walks in 12-of-14 starts | 5.8 | 22.4 | 21.4 | CLE | AA | 143 ↑ | |||||||||
| 29 | Michael Saunders | LF/CF | With the best K% and IsoP of his career, he's breaking out…and in AAA (PCL) | 11.1 | 24.4 | 22.6 | SEA | AAA | 102 ↑ | |||||||||
| 30 | Jon Niese | LHP | Ground-ball pitcher has 100+ innings of AAA success, decent K% and OK BB rate | 8.2 | 21.2 | 22.7 | NYM | MLB | 74 ↑ | |||||||||
| 31 | Tim Alderson | RHP | It's easy to doubt his fringe-average FB; command and curve are both plus, though | 5.0 | 21.0 | 20.7 | SF | AA | 34 ↑ | |||||||||
| 32 | Jemile Weeks | 2B | Tiny sample, but holy $%&#! won't keep it up; still, top 15 prospect entering '10? | 13.1 | 15.7 | 22.4 | OAK | A+ | 117 ↑ | |||||||||
| 33 | Kyle Blanks | 1B | Posted highest walk rate of career in AAA; power/contact are his questions now | 9.9 | 19.2 | 22.8 | SD | MLB | 42 ↑ | |||||||||
| 34 | Zach McAllister | RHP | Not someone you expected here? Great command; increased K% from A+ to AA | 5.9 | 20.2 | 21.6 | NYY | AA | 110 ↑ | |||||||||
| 35 | Tyler Flowers | C | Likely catcher has shown impressive plate discipline as well as a big power stroke | 15.3 | 19.6 | 23.4 | CWS | AA | 79 ↑ | |||||||||
| 36 | Wade Davis | RHP | 140+ innings in each of the last 3 seasons; very close to MLB-ready; great June | 9.0 | 24.1 | 23.8 | TB | AAA | 49 ↑ | |||||||||
| 37 | Chris Carter | 1B | Contact up, power down from High-A to Double-A; very stable walk rate '06-'09 | 12.6 | 23.4 | 22.6 | OAK | AA | 98 ↑ | |||||||||
| 38 | Lars Anderson | 1B | Posting the first sub-.350 BABIP of his career, leading to a big dip in IsoP from '08 | 13.9 | 21.1 | 21.8 | BOS | AA | 18 ↓ | |||||||||
| 39 | Brett Cecil | LHP | Continues to succeed, though K% is down in '09; can he do it over 150 innings? | 7.6 | 22.7 | 23.0 | TOR | MLB | 38 ↑ | |||||||||
| 40 | Eric Hosmer | 1B | The truth is, he still has a lot of adjustments to make; walk rate is lone bright spot | 14.2 | 23.3 | 19.7 | KC | A | 22 ↓ | |||||||||
| 41 | Jenrry Mejia | RHP | One of 2009's biggest breakout arms; GB pitcher with a solid K% and decent BB% | 10.2 | 23.3 | 19.7 | NYM | AA | NR ↑ | |||||||||
| 42 | Aaron Hicks | CF | Has yet to find his power in full-season ball, but we're talking about a tiny sample | 14.7 | 16.0 | 19.8 | MIN | A | 40 ↓ | |||||||||
| 43 | Kris Medlen | RHP | Command specialist baffled R, A, A+, AA, and AAA hitters; slowing down in bigs | 6.4 | 28.6 | 23.7 | ATL | MLB | 142 ↑ | |||||||||
| 44 | Martin Perez | LHP | Though it's hard to get excited about Low-A pitchers, he's definitely one to follow | 9.9 | 23.4 | 18.3 | TEX | A | 84 ↑ | |||||||||
| 45 | Brett Lawrie | 2B | Elite power hitter hasn't been dominant in the MWL but he's a solid all-around hitter | 8.4 | 16.7 | 19.5 | MIL | A | 132 ↑ | |||||||||
| 46 | Jake Arrieta | RHP | Commanding the zone much better than he did in '08; large K% drop in AAA so far | 10.1 | 26.3 | 23.3 | BAL | AAA | 131 ↑ | |||||||||
| 47 | Brad Lincoln | RHP | Forgot about him, didn't you? '06 T.J. surgery sidelined him until '08; just tackled AA | 5.2 | 18.9 | 24.1 | PIT | AAA | 186 ↑ | |||||||||
| 48 | Austin Jackson | CF | Speedster doesn't look like much of a power hitter; could be an OK big league OF | 9.1 | 21.7 | 22.4 | NYY | AAA | 52 ↑ | |||||||||
| 49 | Tim Beckham | SS | Still far too early to give up on him, but things aren't looking very good at the plate | 7.0 | 21.7 | 19.4 | TB | A | 31 ↓ | |||||||||
| 50 | Jordan Lyles | RHP | He's Bumgarnering Low-A; K% has gone up every month: 23.3, 28.2, 37.4; WOW! | 6.0 | 29.4 | 18.7 | HOU |
A | NR ↑ | |||||||||
| We do not rank draft picks until they sign pro contracts; Strasburg would be No. 2 on this list, though | 9.8 | 20.5 | 21.8 | |||||||||||||||
| HMs: Jaff Decker (LF), Kyle Drabek (PHI), Mat Latos (RHP), Casey Kelly (RHP), Lonnie Chisenhall (3B), Logan Forsythe (3B), Brett Wallace (3B), | ||||||||||||||||||
| Sean O'Sullivan (RHP), Mike Carp (1B), Christian Friedrich (LHP), Jordan Walden (RHP), Daniel Hudson (RHP), Blake Beavan (RHP), and David Huff (LHP). | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dropped out: Mike Moustakas (11), Neftali Feliz (15), Brett Wallace (36), Dayan Viciedo (43), Jeremy Hellickson (44), Daryl Jones (45), Michael Ynoa (46), | ||||||||||||||||||
| Michael Bowden (47), Wilmer Flores (48), and Freddie Freeman (50). | ||||||||||||||||||
| Graduated: David Price (2), Cameron Maybin (3), Colby Rasmus (4), Dexter Fowler (5), Brett Anderson (7), Travis Snider (8), Rick Porcello (17), | ||||||||||||||||||
| Trevor Cahill (20), Jordan Schafer (25), Jordan Zimmermann (39), Gerardo Parra (78), Brett Gardner (115), Chris Coghlan (119), and Nolan Reimold (120). | ||||||||||||||||||
| * BB% and K% are career rates; Ages are as of July 1, 2009; Lvl is the highest level the player has reached; Our rankings factor in floor and ceiling | ||||||||||||||||||
| <<< Discuss these rankings | ||||||||||||||||||
Note that the previous ranking column shows each prospect's ranking from our March 16, 2009 Top 200. The same goes for the numbers in parentheses for the dropped out and graduated players. Again, BB% and K% are career rates. The bolded BB%, K%, and age at the bottom of the chart are averages.
If you haven't seen our rankings before, you'll notice that we're huge on trying to pick out guys with high floors. Sorry if that approach contrasts with your fantasy league setup.
We strongly considered 110+ players for this list. Hitters with very low walk rates scare us. We're generally shy with pitchers who have injury histories (especially shoulder) and ones who haven't proven they can pitch 140+ innings in a season.
Questions about this list can be directed toward adamf@projectprospect.com or bsullivan@projectprospect.com