Editor's note: The question below is from one of our forum posters. Lincoln Hamilton, our draft expert, sent the response below to the poster.
I'm in a 16 team 10 round prospect draft currently in round 2. The choices I debated for the pick I had were Chad James, Bobby Borchering and Alex Wilson. My mind said either James or Borchering were the right pick, but I went with my gut and took Wilson. I was just very impressed with the video I saw of him.
My question to you is: Was Wilson the worst pick of the 3? Or a reach for the number 22 pick in a draft?
Any info would be much appreciated!
I always appreciate draft lists that lack bias. Chad James, Bobby Borchering, and Alex Wilson have almost nothing in common, except the fact that they're all really good prospects.
For my final draft board, I ranked them: Chad James (11), Alex Wilson (22), and Bobby Borchering (27). It's safe to say that I liked James the best of that trio. However when I rank players for my draft list, I try and emulate the thought process of a real MLB Scouting Director. I try and gauge players by weighing their upside and downside with even a little signability thrown in, putting emphasis on all the facets of being a good, real world baseball player.
That's not necessarily the same way you should approach a fantasy draft. In most fantasy drafts upside and a quick return are more important than in my initial draft calculations. If you focus on upside and the ability to move quickly threw the minors, Alex Wilson has a clear edge. Wilson is the only college product in your troika, and as a pitcher with two plus pitches is the most MLB ready.
Depending on team need and league rules like your particular scoring system and how the 'minors' are set up, I can see an argument for any of the three players. Chad James is a projectable lefty with smooth/easy mechanics and a three pitch mix that projects as at least above-average across the board, he projects as a possible No. 2 or 3 starter and workhorse for a long time. Bobby Borchering had as much raw power as any high school hitter in the draft and should hit for a decent average as well, his upside is as a middle-of-the-order masher on a good team. Wilson projects as a possible high-strikeout front-of-the-rotation starter, with better pure stuff than Chad James and more positional value than Borchering who is likely to just be a 1B/DH is the majors.
Wilson isn't without risk. Already a Tommy John patient, Wilson will always be classified as an injury risk. The organization he's in may also be a negative as far as Wilson's fantasy value is concerned. The Red Sox are terrific in terms of player development, but their gargantuan payroll, deep farm system and constant win-now philosophy mean that Fenway can be a tough place for a young player to get a chance. Clay Buchholz has yet to establish himself as a fixture of the Red Sox rotation despite being an elite prospect, a guy like Michael Bowden has it even harder, once promising young starter Justin Masterson was relegated to bullpen duty before being dealt to the Indians -- where he thrived but in lower fantasy value. Alex Wilson should be able to help most big league clubs within just a few years, but the Red Sox aren't most big league clubs.
It's worth noting that Alex Wilson is off to a great start to his professional career. In 13 outings for the Lowell Spinners, Boston's short-season affiliate, Wilson struck out 33 of the 126 batters he's faced while walking just seven. The 22-year-old fireballer only yielded two earned runs while inducing 51% ground balls.
Like most Project Prospect readers, you've used your love of the game and curiosity about prospects to put yourself in an enviable position in your fantasy league -- splitting hairs between three really good prospects. If your team needs or league scoring give more importance to home runs, RBIs, and such, Bobby Borchering should be your man. If you can afford to wait a few years and need solid work and innings then Chad James should be the pick. If you want someone who could be really special, lots of strikeouts and need a player with more of an MLB ready skill set, then Alex Wilson looks like the best option.