Prospect Stuff Study

September 15, 2009

PitchFX is a wonderful thing.

Every time any pitcher throws a pitch at a big league stadium, we get some pretty good data that quantifies his performance. In preparation for our end-of-the-year top 25 pitching prospect list, I began gathering some PitchFX data this evening. What started as some basic notes turned into the monster of a list below. The list is of the 10 pitchers who have thrown in the bigs this year but still figure to enter 2010 as prospects.

Methods

All of the data below was gathered using the outstanding PitchFX tool from brooksbaseball.net.

Note that the overall swing-through data for individuals as well as starters and relievers is purely an average of the data. Stupid, I know. By the time I realized that I should be counting swing-throughs, I was already about 40 outings deep into this research. But things actually evened out pretty well; you can always perform your own quick estimations.

Velocity ranges are estimated and rounded down. The fastball ranges should be pretty accurate, but secondary ranges may be a little off.

I need to throw out some giant disclaimers:

1. We're still dealing with tiny samples on each of these pitchers.
2. PitchFX data isn't flawless. I did make some minor tweaks for pitches that I believe were incorrectly categorized.
3. I attempted to list data for each outing when the pitcher recorded three or more outs.
4. Make sure to check out my notes at the bottom of the list.

Rankings

Here are some pitch rankings based off of my interpretations of this LIMITED data:

Fastball

1. Neftali Feliz
2. Antonio Bastardo
3. Brian Matusz
4. Aaron Poreda
5. Jhoulys Chacin

6. Daniel Hudson
7. Carlos Carrasco
8. Wade Davis
9. Jon Niese
10. Madison Bumgarner

I intentionally put in the gap between Chacin and Hudson as a divider. These ranks are based off of swing-throughs generated and velocity.

Changeup

1. Jhoulys Chacin
2. Brian Matusz
3. Carlos Carrasco
4. Daniel Hudson
5. Madison Bumgarner

It's hard to judge these changeups because pitchers don't typically throw many changeups and we have small samples.

Curveball

1. Neftali Feliz
2. Carlos Carrasco
3. Brian Matusz
4. Jhoulys Chacin
5. Jon Niese

Feliz has only thrown a couple of curveballs per outing, but he has gotten swing-throughs five of the 20 times he's thrown the pitch. Matusz threw a lot of curveballs in his final three outings this season -- after hardly throwing the pitch in his first five -- and had success. Wade Davis has just one swing-through with his curve, though he has thrown it 23 times. Still, this isn't enough data to rule out his curve as above-average.

Slider

1. Brian Matusz
2. Aaron Poreda
3. Jhoulys Chacin
4. Neftali Feliz
5. Antonio Bastardo

Matusz has four potential above-average pitches. It's really not fair.

 

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Primarily starters to date
Pitcher Date(s) FB velo ST Tot CH velo ST Tot CB velo ST Tot SL velo ST Tot PC
Antonio Bastardo 6/25/2009 88-91 7.3% 55 83-85 12.5% 8 n/a n/a 0 81-83 26.7% 15 78
6/19/2009 89-93 11.5% 79 84-86 0.0% 7 n/a n/a 0 81-84 7.1% 14 100
6/13/2009 90-93 8.8% 34 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 81-83 0.0% 4 38
6/7/2009 89-93 5.1% 79 82-84 0.0% 5 n/a n/a 0 81-84 11.1% 18 102
6/2/2009 90-95 8.8% 91 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 82-84 0.0% 11 102
  overall 89-93 8.3% 68 83-85 4.2% 4 n/a n/a 0 81-84 9.0% 12 84
Brian Matusz 9/12/2009 89-92 4.5% 67 81-84 16.7% 6 75-79 0.0% 11 79-84 4.6% 22 106
9/5/2009 89-93 6.9% 58 82-84 20.0% 10 75-79 23.1% 13 79-92 33.3% 12 93
8/30/2009 90-93 5.3% 61 81-84 0.0% 11 75-78 12.5% 8 77-82 10.0% 20 100
8/25/2009 90-93 4.6% 65 81-84 5.3% 19 77-81 0.0% 2 79-82 7.7% 13 99
8/20/2009 89-92 12.5% 64 81-82 22.2% 9 73-75 0.0% 4 79-82 7.1% 14 91
8/15/2009 89-93 8.3% 60 81-83 20.0% 15 75-79 0.0% 5 79-83 33.3% 18 98
8/9/2009 90-93 11.4% 44 82-83 0.0% 5 76 0.0% 1 81-84 8.3% 12 62
8/4/2009 89-94 8.3% 72 81-83 18.8% 16 77-80 0.0% 4 79-83 28.6% 7 99
  overall 89-93 7.7% 61 81-84 12.9% 11 75-79 4.5% 6 79-83 16.6% 15 94
Carlos Carrasco 9/13/2009 90-94 6.1% 49 84-86 5.6% 18 76-78 16.7% 12 n/a n/a 0 79
9/8/2009 90-95 4.3% 47 86-88 24.0% 25 78-80 30.0% 10 83-88 20.0% 5 87
9/1/2009 91-93 8.0% 50 84-86 6.7% 15 75-77 0.0% 6 79-81 66.7% 3 74
Jon Niese 8/5/2009 86-91 6.3% 16 n/a n/a 0 73-74 33.0% 3 86-88 0.0% 9 28
7/30/2009 86-91 4.8% 63 81 0.0% 1 72-75 17.7% 17 86-89 5.6% 18 99
7/25/2009 86-91 4.9% 61 82-83 0.0% 5 72-76 0.0% 23 85-88 5.9% 17 106
5/13/2009 88-92 19.7% 61 82-83 0.0% 4 72-74 0.0% 6 n/a n/a 0 71
5/8/2009 87-92 6.4% 79 79 0.0% 1 72-75 6.3% 16 n/a n/a 0 96
9/22/2008 87-91 1.9% 54 81-82 0.0% 7 71-74 11.8% 17 n/a n/a 0 78
9/13/2008 86-92 2.5% 79 81-83 0.0% 4 72-75 3.0% 33 n/a n/a 0 116
9/2/2008 87-91 2.3% 44 80-83 9.1% 11 72-74 6.3% 16 81-82 0.0% 2 73
  overall 87-91 6.1% 57 81-83 1.3% 4 72-75 9.8% 16 85-88 2.9% 6 83
Madison Bumgarner 9/8/2009 86-90 3.7% 54 85-87 25.0% 4 n/a n/a 0 78-88 0.0% 18 76
5/4/2009@ 88-92 n/a n/a 81-84 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 79-82 n/a n/a n/a
Wade Davis 9/12/2009 90-94 3.8% 53 83 0.0% 1 79-81 10.0% 10 85-87 0.0% 5 69
9/6/2009 89-93 15.6% 77 81-82 0.0% 5 77-80 0.0% 13 84-86 11.1% 9 104
  All SPs 89-93 7.2% 60 83-84 7.6% 8 76-78 8.0% 8 82-86 12.6% 10 86
Primarily relievers to date
Pitcher Date(s) FB velo ST Tot CH velo ST Tot CB velo ST Tot SL velo ST Tot PC
Aaron Poreda 7/12/2009 89-92 4.8% 21 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 78-81 20.0% 5 26
7/9/2009 90-93 6.3% 32 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 78-80 20.0% 10 42
7/7/2009 90-94 8.3% 24 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 78-81 20.0% 5 29
7/5/2009 92-94 2.0% 10 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 81 50.0% 2 12
6/27/2009 92-93 71.4% 7 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 7
6/25/2009 90-93 30.8% 13 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 77 100.0% 1 14
6/23/2009 91-93 5.6% 18 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 18
6/19/2009 91-95 7.7% 13 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 78-79 0.0% 3 16
6/12/2009 90-95 4.6% 22 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 77-79 0.0% 7 29
  overall 90-94 15.7% 18 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 78-81 30.0% 4 21
Daniel Hudson 9/8/2009 93-95 6.9% 29 83-85 14.3% 14 n/a n/a 0 83 33.3% 3 46
9/4/2009 92-94 0.0% 14 83-84 0.0% 5 n/a n/a 0 83-84 0.0% 5 24
Jhoulys Chacin 9/13/2009 89-92 10.0% 20 86 0.0% 1 n/a n/a 0 80-82 33.3% 3 24
9/10/2009 88-91 0.0% 9 n/a n/a 0 78-80 25.0% 4 n/a n/a 0 13
8/11/2009 88-92 5.4% 37 84-87 0.0% 6 80-83 12.5% 8 83-85 15.0% 20 71
8/8/2009 89-92 18.2% 11 82-84 50.0% 4 81-82 50.0% 2 82-85 75.0% 4 21
8/4/2009 89-91 9.1% 11 83 50.0% 2 n/a n/a 0 81-82 50.0% 2 15
7/28/2009 89-93 7.1% 14 83-85 20.0% 5 79-81 0.0% 2 80-82 0.0% 2 23
7/25/2009 90-93 7.7% 13 n/a n/a 0 82-84 16.7% 6 82-84 0.0% 3 22
  overall 88-92 8.2% 16 82-85 24.0% 3 79-83 20.8% 3 82-85 28.9% 5 27
Neftali Feliz 9/8/2009 94-97 9.5% 21 87 0.0% 1 n/a n/a 0 77-80 0.0% 7 29
9/4/2009 94-99 12.5% 24 86-87 0.0% 4 77-80 25.0% 4 81 0.0% 1 33
9/1/2009 92-95 0.0% 18 85 0.0% 1 77-79 33.0% 3 76-79 0.0% 5 27
8/29/2009 92-95 0.0% 12 85 0.0% 1 77-78 25.0% 4 76-77 20.0% 5 22
8/25/2009 95-99 10.0% 30 86 0.0% 1 83 0.0% 1 79-82 10.0% 10 42
8/22/2009 92-97 9.5% 21 85-87 25.0% 4 n/a n/a 0 77-78 0.0% 5 30
8/20/2009 94-96 0.0% 15 82 0.0% 1 77 0.0% 1 n/a n/a 0 17
8/17/2009 91-95 14.3% 21 80-86 0.0% 4 79 0.0% 1 n/a n/a 0 26
8/15/2009 94-99 14.8% 27 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 79-81 0.0% 4 31
8/13/2009 93-98 10.0% 20 n/a n/a 0 77-79 0.0% 8 n/a n/a 0 28
8/7/2009 97-101 4.2% 24 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a 0 84-86 25.0% 4 28
8/5/2009 96-99 18.2% 11 86 0.0% 1 81 100.0% 1 81 100.0% 1 14
8/3/2009 97-100 14.8% 27 n/a n/a 0 80-82 50.0% 2 81 0.0% 1 30
  overall 93-97 9.1% 21 85-87 2.8% 1 77-80 25.9% 2 77-81 15.5% 3 27
  All RPs 91-94 10.5% 19 83-85 10.8% 2 78-81 23.9% 2 80-83 23.4% 4 26
@ Bumgarner's 5/4/09 High-A velos are from my radar gun                  
* Italicized outings are relief appearances                        
** ST stands for swing-through; Tot is the number of times a pitch was thrown; PC stands for pitch count      
*** For simplicity, I combined two and four-seam fastballs                  
**** Velocities are not exact, I estimated them using Brooks Baseball's PitchFX tool