Rookie Review: Derek Holland

Once a prospect establishes himself as a big leaguer, it's easy to let him fall into the hands of the mainstream media. We specialize in getting out information on guys who are unknowns to the typical baseball fan. But why lose tract of a guy because most fans have become familiar with him?

With the help of PitchFX, we've decided to give some of 2009's rookie pitchers a prospect encore. This time we look at Derek Holland.

After a breakout 2008 season, we ranked Holland as the no. 12 prospect in baseball entering 2009. He impressed us with his command, high-velocity fastball and solid ground-ball rates. Holland has thrown 1,954 pitches this season over 18 starts and 12 appearances out of the bullpen.

Disclaimer: The data below is from www.brooksbaseball.net's PitchFX tool. One of the biggest flaws with PitchFX is misclassified pitches; the pitch classification data below isn't perfect. I've estimated velocity ranges for changeups, curveballs and sliders -- fastball velos should be pretty accurate. For simplicity, I've combined fastballs (Holland throws a four-seamer almost exclusively, but he does mix in occasional two-seamers). I didn't go back and watch game footage for this report. It's largely based on PitchFX data.

Fastball

While Holland works in the low-to-mid-90s with his fastball, even as a starter, he's had some starts where he's 89-92 and some where he's 92-95. His fastball has been very inconsistent in terms of velocity -- it's been down 1-2 MPH over the last month. Out of the bullpen, he's shown the ability to sit in the mid-90s.

Holland's two-seamer is a below-average pitch that has only generated a handful of swing-throughs all season. He does, however, seem to have success overpowering hitters with his two-seamer, which I see as only an average pitch, due to its lack of movement.

Grade: C

Changeup

Holland's changeup showed flashes of being a decent pitch from April through June, but it wasn't a pitch that he was able to rely upon much. It has come to life lately, though. He has generated swing-throughs with 11.0% of his changeups since August 9th, after only getting 3.9% in his previous outings.

Holland has thrown 10 or more changeups in seven of his last eight starts. He topped 10 changeups in just three outings from April through July. Note that he bounced from the bullpen to the rotation multiple times from May through July. So it's possible that his changeup has been better lately because he's getting to throw it more.

Grade: B-

Curveball

Only 1.8% of Holland's offerings have been curveballs, according to PitchFX. He has generated one swing-through with the pitch this season -- thrown 35 times. That swing-through did come on August 31st, though. So similar to his changeup, it could be that Holland is just now becoming comfortable throwing the pitch against MLB hitters. His curve could become an average offering, but it's not there yet.

Grade: D+

Slider

Holland's slider is a big reason for his success this season. It's been a clear plus pitch from the day he reached the bigs. He's generated at least one swing-through with it in 80% of his appearances. It's such a good pitch that he mixes it in over 16% of the time, too -- he's used it 20 or more times in three starts this season.

Grade: A

Lincoln's April thoughts

Lincoln Hamilton wrote a scouting report on Holland for us back on April 22nd. Here are his conclusions:

He has a very simple, free and easy arm action, which allows him to get the ball up to the driveline very early in his delivery. Holland is a good athlete who repeats his delivery quite well. At just 22 years of age, he showed great poise, as he made his debut in a difficult situation and pitched his team out of a jam. Holland showed the potential for two plus pitches (fastball and slider) as well as the ability to pound the zone. Though there are sure to be a few growing pains along the way, Derek Holland may already be the Rangers' best pitcher.

Conclusions

While Holland hasn't been unhittable this season, he's showing a ton of promise. His changeup and fastball could join his slider as above-average pitches next season. If that happens, he'd be a likely candidate for a breakout season. And his solid command (8.0% BB) is promising.

As Lincoln mentioned in his report, Holland's fastball doesn't have much movement. This lack of movement, paired with his velocity loss over the last month, likely can be pointed to as a reason for his troubles with keeping the ball in the park. It's not a given that Holland won't suffer a similar loss in velocity in the future, but I think he could hold his velo better as he matures into a starting role. Holland is a potential top-of-the-rotation starter with true ace upside.

2009 Grade: C
Ceiling: A

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