Once a prospect establishes himself as a big leaguer, it's easy to let him fall into the hands of the mainstream media. We specialize in getting out information on guys who are unknowns to the typical baseball fan. But why lose tract of a guy because most fans have become familiar with him?
With the help of PitchFX, we've decided to give some of 2009's rookie pitchers a prospect encore. How about some Vin Mazzaro?
Mazzaro didn't enter 2009 with as much steam as teammates Brett Anderson or Trevor Cahill, but he grabbed a lot of attention with a hot June. We ranked him as baseball's no. 138 prospect entering the season because of his Triple-A success and exceptional command. Mazzaro's health has become a question mark, as he was shut down at the end of August due to right shoulder tendinitis. With his 2009 season already over, let's break down how he performed in his 1,640-pitch rookie season.
Disclaimer: The data below is from www.brooksbaseball.net's PitchFX tool. One of the biggest flaws with PitchFX is misclassified pitches; the pitch classification data below isn't perfect. I've estimated velocity ranges for changeups, curveballs and sliders -- fastball velos should be pretty accurate. For simplicity, I've combined fastballs. I didn't go back and watch game footage for this report. It's largely based on PitchFX data.
Fastball
Mazzaro relied heavily on his 91-94 fastball, throwing it two-thirds of the time during his rookie stint. He threw both two and four-seamers. Some games he had nearly 50/50 mixes of the two fastballs; others he threw almost exclusively four-seamers. After posting an impressive 6.6% swing-through rate with his fastball in June, he only managed to generate 3.3% swing-throughs in July and August. Mazzaro will likely need to make some adjustments next season in order to be able to succeed with the pitch again.
Grade: C-
Changeup
This was a below-average pitch in 2009. Mazzaro threw 18 changeups on July 4th and 12 on August 18th...none of them got swing-throughs. He only offered the pitch up 6.7% of the time. Maybe the 84-86 MPH offering has more potential than I'm giving it credit for, but I don't think Mazzaro's changeup is close to average.
Grade: D-
Curveball
Mazzaro's 83-86 curve isn't much better than his changeup. He seldom throws it and it was pretty inconsistent, though it was a solid pitch on occasion. Mazzaro got six swing-throughs with his curve in June and three between July and August.
Grade: D
Slider
According to PitchFX, Mazzaro threw his slider 21.8% of the time. That's a lot. It's not as good as Derek Holland's, especially when you note that Mazzaro had a 20.8% swing-through rate with the pitch in June vs. 10.3% in July/August. But it's a pitch that could be above-average if Mazzaro makes a healthy return to the mound.
Grade: B
Conclusions
After finding a lot of success during his first month in the big leagues, Mazzaro slowed drastically over his next two. And his shoulder tendinitis is concerning. He was also basically a two-pitch pitcher in 2009. Nearly 90% of his offerings were fastballs or sliders, according to PitchFX. Mazzaro's ability to command the strike zone is promising, but he probably isn't going to be a guy who overpowers hitters.
2009 Grade: D+
Ceiling: B
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| Date | FB velo | ST | Tot | CH velo | ST | Tot | CB velo | ST | Tot | SL velo | ST | Tot | PC |
| 8/29/2009 | 92-94 | 3.0% | 67 | 86-87 | 14.3% | 7 | 83-86 | 0.0% | 4 | 84-87 | 4.8% | 21 | 99 |
| 8/24/2009 | 91-94 | 5.9% | 68 | 84-85 | 0.0% | 4 | 84 | 0.0% | 1 | 83-86 | 11.5% | 26 | 99 |
| 8/18/2009 | 92-94 | 2.8% | 72 | 85-87 | 0.0% | 12 | 83-86 | 11.1% | 9 | 85-88 | 10.0% | 10 | 103 |
| 8/12/2009 | 90-93 | 6.3% | 63 | 84-87 | 0.0% | 6 | n/a | n/a | 0 | 83-87 | 6.3% | 16 | 85 |
| 8/7/2009 | 93-95 | 1.3% | 77 | 85-86 | 0.0% | 6 | n/a | n/a | 0 | 86-88 | 9.1% | 11 | 94 |
| 8/2/2009 | 89-92 | 1.7% | 60 | 87 | 0.0% | 2 | 78-85 | 0.0% | 4 | 82-86 | 14.3% | 35 | 101 |
| 7/28/2009 | 93-99 | 3.9% | 77 | 85-86 | 0.0% | 2 | 83 | 0.0% | 1 | 85-89 | 4.5% | 22 | 102 |
| 7/23/2009 | 91-94 | 3.1% | 64 | 83-84 | 12.5% | 8 | 80-83 | 12.5% | 8 | 84-87 | 13.0% | 23 | 103 |
| 7/18/2009 | 92-94 | 0.0% | 45 | 85-86 | 0.0% | 4 | 86-87 | 25.0% | 4 | 86-88 | 30.8% | 13 | 66 |
| 7/10/2009 | 91-93 | 4.8% | 63 | 84-85 | 0.0% | 5 | 79-81 | 0.0% | 6 | 82-86 | 8.7% | 23 | 97 |
| 7/4/2009 | 91-93 | 1.8% | 57 | 83-86 | 0.0% | 18 | 78-80 | 0.0% | 10 | 85-86 | 0.0% | 14 | 99 |
| 6/28/2009 | 91-96 | 8.7% | 69 | 85 | 0.0% | 3 | 83-86 | 0.0% | 5 | 85-87 | 31.3% | 32 | 109 |
| 6/23/2009 | 91-93 | 9.1% | 55 | 84-86 | 10.0% | 10 | 82-86 | 23.1% | 13 | 84-87 | 11.1% | 27 | 105 |
| 6/18/2009 | 91-94 | 8.8% | 57 | 84-86 | 0.0% | 3 | 80 | 0.0% | 1 | 83-86 | 10.7% | 28 | 89 |
| 6/12/2009 | 91-93 | 3.8% | 52 | 83-86 | 0.0% | 4 | 80 | 0.0% | 1 | 83-86 | 34.8% | 23 | 80 |
| 6/7/2009 | 91-94 | 9.9% | 71 | 85-87 | 0.0% | 6 | 83-86 | 14.3% | 7 | 84-86 | 15.0% | 20 | 104 |
| 6/2/2009 | 90-94 | 0.0% | 73 | 85-86 | 20.0% | 10 | 80-82 | 25.0% | 8 | 85-88 | 21.4% | 14 | 105 |
| overall | 91-94 | 4.4% | 66.5% | 84-86 | 4.5% | 6.7% | 83-86 | 11.0% | 5.0% | 84-87 | 14.5% | 21.8% | 96 |
| * ST stands for swing-through; Tot is the number of times a pitch was thrown; PC stands for pitch count | |||||||||||||