Teenage pitchers can be very difficult to get a read on. On top of still being years from reaching the injury nexus, most of them primarily face low-minors hitters who won't play their way past Double-A. Due to the relatively low level of competition in A-ball, pitching stats from these levels can easily mislead fans.
I've looked at Jordan Lyles' basic pitching statistics; he's dominating through this lens. But a deeper look unveils a talented young hurler who still has a lot to prove.
In preparation for our top 25 pitching prospect list, which didn't include Lyles, I talked to multiple scouts about him, watched over 25-percent of his 2009 innings on MiLB.tv and studied his Low-A ball-in-play data.
Fastball
Lyles' Low-A success hinged on his ability to command his explosive, 88-92 MPH two-seam fastball. He has good enough control to land the pitch in the strike zone just about any time he needs to. He isn't afraid to throw inside. And he can locate his fastball on the corners. Though Lyles' two-seamer has a bit of arm-side run, it doesn't move much. He does, however, hide the ball well. Still, hitters frequently squared up on the pitch when he left it over the plate.
Lyles has poor command his 91-94 MPH four-seam fastball. He frequently overthrows it and usually can't get it in the strike zone. It's pretty straight too.
The bulk of Lyles' fastball swing-throughs came on pitches that were well up in the strike zone. He lives up in the zone once he gets ahead of hitters. Low-A bats generally couldn't resist his high fastball and couldn't hit it either. Lyles doesn't pitch well down in the zone.
About 80-percent of Lyles' offerings were fastballs the times I saw him pitch. Overall, I'd grade the pitch as average right now. He has solid velocity and good command. But I don't think he's going to leverage at-bats away from polished professional hitters by working off the fastball that I saw in 2009.
Secondary
My first question about Lyles as he approached the end of his full-season debut was: How good is his breaking ball?
The answer that I got from the first scout I talked to was: "It was OK but it flattens out at times. It's a more of a show-me pitch at this stage of his development than a legitimate offering."
I liked Lyles' curveball a little more than the scout I spoke with. It's a solid pitch. But it is a little loopy, even though it has solid break. The pitch isn't a knee-buckler. And it's not an offering that he's able to rely on to finish hitters. Lyles' curveball command was promising. He was able to sneak some strikes on the corners with it. He throws it a little more than 10% of the time.
In the outings that I watched, very few hitters offered at Lyles' curveball. They took it and waited for him to throw a fastball. I did, however, see Tim Beckham groove a Lyles curveball down the left field line for a double on June 16th. Beckham took a balanced swing and roped the ball.
If you're looking for a curveball that moves enough to upset a hitter's timing, Lyles has one. It's a solid complement to his fastball. But his curve doesn't have hard, breaking action, nor is it a hammer or a hard-snapper. It is a below-average offering at this point.
I had trouble getting a good read on Lyles' changeup. The pitch doesn't move much. And from the reports I got, it lacks deception but can be a decent offering against lefties. Like his fastball and curve, Lyles can throw his changeup for strikes.
Mechanics and athleticism
Lyles is an outstanding athlete, especially given that he's a big, 6-foot-4 hurler. Throwing from a 3/4 arm slot, he does a good job repeating his smooth and easy delivery.
Despite his athleticism, Lyles does not finish in a good fielding position. He follows through by whipping his push-off foot up above his waste and across his body. This leaves him off-balance -- falling toward first base -- by the time the ball reaches the batter.
Statistically speaking
Lyles' 27.8-percent strikeout rate was 1.13 deviations above the Low-A average (21.1%). And his 6.3-percent walk rate was 0.57 deviations better than the Low-A average (8.37%).
As we try to put any 2009 Low-A pitcher's walk and strikeout rates into contex, it's important to note that the average 2009 Double-A hitter struck out 2.73-percent less than the average Low-A hitter and walked 1.16-percent more. Lyles is going to be facing much better contact hitters with more patience as he progresses in pro baseball.
His 46.1-percent groundball rate was 0.33 deviations below the Low-A average (48.7%). And His 23.4-percent line-drive against rate was 2.20 deviations above the Low-A average (14.9%).
Line-drive rates are a product of subjective scorekeeping decisions. They are hardly reliable for the minor leagues, let alone the low minors. That said, Lyles' line-drive against rate definitely sticks out.
I'm well aware of the studies that show pitchers have a limited amount of control over the type of contact that's made against them. But those studies, to my knowledge, were products of MLB data. We don't have a study to support this -- yet -- but I think minor league pitchers probably have more control over the type of contact that's made against them than major leaguers.
Think about the most dominant high school pitcher you've ever seen. Hardly anyone was able to square the ball up against him, right? Similarly, I think low-minors hitters have a lot harder time hitting line drives against the best low-minors pitchers than major league batters do against major league pitchers.
I am concerned about Lyles' line-drive against rate, especially because I watched hitters square up on his fastball regularly. It ranks him 471-of-484 among Low-A pitchers who topped 100 total batters faced in 2009.
Conclusions
By turning in one of the best seasons of any teenage minor league pitcher in baseball, Lyles has earned the right to be compared to the top prospects in baseball.
A total of 3,140 minor league pitchers topped 100 regular-season total batters faced this year. Lyles clearly belongs in the top 0.2-percent of that group. He's an extremely elite prospect. But putting top-of-the-rotation expectations on him may be premature.
The scouts I spoke with each named a handful of pitching prospects in the South Atlantic League alone who impressed them more than Lyles. Going off buzz from members of our community and the information that's circulating around the web on Lyles, I think he's someone who's likely to enter 2010 very overhyped due to his Low-A walk and strikeout rates.
Looking deep into his numbers, watching a large portion of his 2009 starts, and talking to multiple scouts about Lyles, I see more than a few weaknesses in his game. The main one is that he relies on hitters chasing his fastball up in the zone. Once he faces guys who don't do that, he's likely going to slam into a wall.
While Lyles certainly has a lot going for him, there are safer bets in the minors who also offer higher ceilings than him. That I'm sure of.
Have you seen Jordan Lyles pitch and disagree or agree with our information? Come discuss Lyles with Adam Foster in our Scouting Forum >>>