Battle of the 2007 top 100s

October 23, 2009

Using dollar values from, which are explained here, I've gone back and calculated competitive net values between Baseball America's, Baseball Prospectus' and our 2007 top 100 prospect list.

I explain my study in detail and define competitive net value in the methodology section below. But before we get to that, here's how the battle for the most value-laden 2007 top 100 prospect list is shaping up so far (dollar values are in millions):

1. Baseball America, $454.3
2. Baseball Prospectus, $438.6
3. Project Prospect, $367.5

And the 2007 prospects with the most career value so far (followed by the publication that gave the individual the highest ranking entering the 2007 season):

1. Tim Lincecum, $83.9 (BP)
2. Dustin Pedroia, $66.7 (PP)
3. Evan Longoria, $56.8 (BA)
4. Ryan Braun, $51.2 (BP)
5. Ubaldo Jimenez, $49.3 (BP)
6. Troy Tulowitzki, $47.7 (PP)
7. John Danks $39.3 (BA)
8. Joey Votto, $36.7 (PP)
9. Kevin Kouzmanoff, $34.4 (BP)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka, $33.1 (BA)

Most promising prospects who still haven't broken into the bigs from that year along with their strongest endorser:

Brad Lincoln (PP), Hank Conger (BP), Jeremy Hellickson (PP), Jose Tabata (PP) and Lars Anderson (PP).


A total of 78 prospects appeared on all three of our lists. So my first challenge was determining how to divide these players up. I chose to address this obstacle by conducting a series of mock drafts. This approach is how I define the value of the lists when stacked up against each other -- competitive net value.

By simply drafting the highest ranked player on a given list when that publication's pick came up, I treated each top 100 like the publication's draft cheat sheet. But draft order will affect our results.

Rather than conducting one mock draft with a randomly determined order (or the nine possible drafts that you could get with our lists), I instead conducted three mock drafts. Each publication selected first in one of them. I then gave each publication the dollar value it has earned in the draft in which it selected first -- so some of the guys who are ranked very similarly on multiple lists were counted for more than one publication (ex. Yovani Gallardo, Andrew McCutchen and Erick Aybar).

My next step was deducting value for loner instances (when two publications had a guy as a top 100 prospect while the third didn't, the third is the loner).

Kevin Kouzmanoff has already had a $34.4 million career. Baseball America endorsed Brian Barton over him when no one else was touting Barton as a top 100 guy and everyone besides BA saw Kouzmanoff as one -- everyone and no one being BP and PP :). This BA decision will likely be a "$50+ million mistake" when all is said and done. So I've subtracted Kouzmanoff's value from the overall value of its mock draft. BA received a total loner instance deduction of $40.0 million.

Similarly, BP was the only publication to exclude Kurt Suzuki and Elvis Andrus from its top 100. Those two could eventually take away over $100 million from BPs list and already have combined to be worth $43.6 million (BP also left out $10.5 million man Micah Owings). Note that I didn't hold BP's omission of Daisuke Matsuzaka against it in this study, as it's my understanding that Kevin Goldstein didn't rank him because he didn't view him as a prospect. BP received a total deduction of $59.3 million.

We've already made a $49.3 million mistake by excluding Ubaldo Jimenez from our 2007 top 100 -- Glen Perkins already $10 million career also hurts us. PP received a total deduction of $65.2 million.

Lastly, there were a handful of renegade picks who weren't ranked high enough on top 100s to be selected in the mock. I still credited these players to the publication that ranked each (Neftali Feliz and Kyle Drabek to BP; Johnny Cueto and Lars Anderson to PP), so as not to give a publication an advantage for taking fewer risks than the others.

The chart below is one of the three mock drafts I conducted.

Rd. Project Prospect $   Baseball America $   Baseball Prospectus $
1 Delmon Young -$3.0   Daisuke Matsuzaka $33.1   Alex Gordon $22.1
2 Phil Hughes $17.1   Homer Bailey $6.7   Brandon Wood -$2.8
3 Jay Bruce $9.0   Cameron Maybin $5.8   Tim Lincecum $83.9
4 Billy Butler $13.5   Evan Longoria $56.8   Chris Young $16.3
5 Mike Pelfrey $23.3   Justin Upton $20.7   Reid Brignac -$0.9
6 Troy Tulowitzki $47.7   Andrew Miller $12.2   Ryan Braun $51.2
7 Andrew McCutchen $15.3   Yovani Gallardo $24.0   Matt Garza $37.0
8 Scott Elbert -$1.1   Carlos Gonzalez $13.8   Clayton Kershaw $25.3
9 Andy LaRoche $8.5   Fernando Martinez -$2.3   Adam Miller n/a
10 Jose Tabata n/a   Adam Jones $17.9   Luke Hochevar $15.6
11 Nick Adenhart $0.9   Colby Rasmus $10.4   Jeff Niemann $14.2
12 Joey Votto $36.7   Franklin Morales $6.3   Philip Humber -$1.5
13 James Loney $20.3   Jacoby Ellsbury $28.8   Brandon Erbe n/a
14 Adam Lind $19.5   Jarrod Saltalmacchia $7.6   Carlos Gomez $14.3
15 Jason Hirsh $1.1   Jacob McGee n/a   Chuck Lofgren n/a
16 Hunter Pence $41.2   Chris Volstad $6.9   Donald Veal -$1.2
17 Will Inman n/a   Carlos Carrasco -$1.3   Eric Hurley $0.0
18 Josh Fields -$2.8   Ian Stewart $12.1   Dexter Fowler $1.4
19 Felix Pie $6.8   Billy Rowell n/a   Travis Snider $2.7
20 Elijah Dukes $9.2   Travis Buck $12.3   Clay Buchholz $12.5
21 Daric Barton $8.5   Ryan Sweeney $23.6   Chris Iannetta $29.2
22 Jeff Clement $2.1   John Danks $39.3   Kevin Kouzmanoff $34.4
23 Kevin Slowey $20.7   Humberto Sanchez $0.0   Joba Chamberlain $25.3
24 Elvis Andrus $13.6   Troy Patton -$0.5   Trevor Crowe -$0.1
25 Brad Lincoln n/a   Jonathan Sanchez $24.0   Edinson Volquez $21.7
26 Erick Aybar $21.7   Miguel Montero $22.4   Sean West $4.2
27 Neil Walker -$1.4   Glen Perkins $10.0   Angel Villalona n/a
28 Sean Gallagher $5.5   Jaime Garcia -$1.9   Ubaldo Jimenez $49.3
29 Dustin Pedroia $66.7   Gio Gonzalez $2.7   Ryan Tucker -$1.5
30 Michael Bowden $0.8   Greg Reynolds -$2.4   Brandon Morrow $5.5
31 Matt Walker n/a   Brett Sinbeil n/a   Wade Davis $5.2
32 Alberto Callaspo $15.3   Jeff Samardzija $0.8   Matt Harrison $5.5
33 Daniel Bard $3.8   Matt Albers $4.0   Brent Lillibridge -$3.8
34 Jeremy Jeffress n/a   Brian Barton $3.5   Sean Rodriguez $0.1
35 Jeremy Hellickson n/a   Drew Stubbs $6.8   Hank Conger n/a
36 Deolis Guerra n/a   Kurt Suzuki $30.1   Cesar Carrillo -$3.0
37 Dellin Betances n/a   Chris Parmelee n/a   Chris Marrero n/a
38 Anthony Swarzak $0.1   Collin Balester -$1.4   Cedric Hunter n/a
39 Joe Koshansky -$1.0   Micah Owings $10.5   Pedro Beato n/a
Tot.   $419.6     $443.3     $462.1
  n/a: 8   n/a: 4   n/a: 8


Follow me on Twitter to hear about future Peer Review studies before they hit the web.