Poll: 2010's Top Prospect

January 19, 2010

In an effort to gauge who baseball fans view as the game's top prospect, I conducted an informal Twitter poll last weekend.

Analysis

The data is from a good-natured community poll with a relatively small sample size. You don't really expect me to analyze it, do you? Oh, you do...

The pie chart to the right reflects what you're going to see on a lot of prospect lists over the next month or two. Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg will be number 1 and 2. Don't bank on many major publications straying from putting those two atop its list. Why?

1. Heyward and Strasburg are considered to be the game's top prospects by more than just the fans.

2. Any publication that doesn't rank Heyward and Strasburg atop its list is asking for a Public Relations nightmare.

"Wait, Project Prospect doesn't have a PR department!" you say.

"Nope."

"But you guys take radical views just to draw attention to yourselves," you respond.

We try to be as objective as possible with our rankings. If that means putting out an opinion that a lot of people disagree with, so bit it. We take a lot of pride in our rankings (watch video, conduct statistical studies, travel to see guys play in person). I challenge any publication to demonstrate better combined quantitative and scouting knowledge than our staff. If the numbers and our scouting reviews both look good, we'll typically back a guy whole-heartedly. But if we have a concern with either, we'll be cautious.

Prospecting isn't about largely touting high-ceiling prospects who could be generational players. It's about finding value. More prospects will go on to be average or slightly above-average regulars than stars. We aim to publish a diversified rankings portfolio that balances high-ceiling and high-floor talents.

In other words, one of the two most popular prospects in baseball isn't ranked No. 1 or 2 on our list. And thousands of hours of scouting, quantitative studies and prospect analysis experience have shaped our decision.

Check back later this week for Project Prospect's top 10 overall prospect list! And don't forget to pre-order your Digital Prospect Guide -- Lincoln Hamilton has officially teamed up with us to write reports and help with the rankings. 

 

Follow Adam on Twitter to participate in future prospect polls and discussion.