Lincoln's 2010 Draft Board

As always, I restricted this list to only players I’ve seen and had a good feeling for. Florida Gulf Coast’s Chris Sale, for example, is top 10 on many lists after dazzling in the Cape, but I don’t feel comfortable ranking him higher until I see it with my own eyes.

This list is as of February 18th, so a lot will change between now and June. I’m very likely to change my mind on some guys. That’s all part of the evaluation process.

Now here are a few random musings about the list…

The Bryce Harper hype has died down some, but he shouldn’t slide down any draft boards. 17-year-old kids with 80+ power (I put ‘+’ because he probably goes off the scale) who play premium defensive positions (Harper is a much better defender than he’s given credit for) don’t grow on trees. Yes, he might struggle with good breaking balls, and yes there’s a chance he outgrows catching. But Harper’s ceiling is matched only by Justin Upton, Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. among high school draft prospects in recent memory.

Harper and Taillon are a firm 1-2 in the rankings for me right now. Taillon has truly devastating stuff. His mechanics are a little weird, but seem to work for him. His elbow gets high in back, during his scapular loading phase. While this usually results in timing problems, Taillon takes such a long stride that is arm is actually in fine position whenever he starts to rotate his shoulders. His combination of velocity and movement is going to break a lot of bats.

Kevin Gausman is probably higher here than anywhere else at the moment. He could easily be universal top 5 by June. The ball really explodes out of his hand. I spent a good 15 minutes on Friday going over his appearance in the Aflac All-American game in slow-motion and I can say with 99% certainty that he pronates his curveball. This is exceptionally good from both a performance and health perspective. His command was poor in the Aflac game. But I’m a big believer that smooth, repeatable mechanics make good command so I’m not too worried about that just yet.

We might have to get Nick Castellanos a restraining order from our own Steve Carter. Steve’s man crush on Castellanos is well deserved. There is very little doubt about his ability to hit (unless he takes his approach from Josh Vitters). Castellanos’ frame is pretty big and he might eventually have to shift to first base. But Castellanos has the lateral range and strong arm to be a third baseman at least in the short and medium term.

College pitching looks pretty deep this year. You could rank the top five guys in just about any order. Alex Wimmers of Ohio State, Kyle Blair from the University of San Diego could easily be in that group as well. Viginia Tech’s Jesse Hahn created a lot of buzz in the Cape, but I want to see it with my own eyes before he convinces me that he’s not just a reliever long term.

James Paxton may not pitch for the University of Kentucky this year (he is mired in legal imbroglio similar to Andrew Oliver last year) but he was very underrated last year and still rates among the best pitching prospects in 2010 – where ever he pitches.

I find ranking prep hitters the hardest thing at this point in the process. Shortstops Yordy Cabrera and Manny Machado have the upside to be top 10 picks. But concerns over the ultimate defensive home of each as well as approach at the plate lead me to be conservative right now. Both players have big power (Cabrera beat Bryce Harper in a home run derby this summer) and could easily vault up this list as we near summer.

The same goes for high school outfielders like Austin Wilson, Chavez Clark, Trey Griffin and Brian Ragiara. All four guys could wind up as very high picks.

I love Clarks’ athleticism and bat speed but he’s very raw in the outfield and likely won’t have more than average power.

Austin Wilson is built like a young Dave Winfield with impressive raw power. But he’s stuck on a corner defensively and I have a hard time seeing him hit for much average.

I like pretty much everything I’ve seen from Trey Griffin; the sample size has just been very small.

Brian Ragiara has great natural hitting instincts, but might not have the speed for center or the power for a corner spot.

I’ll have more up soon on the college hitters to keep an eye on this season – which starts today!!

Quick note on Zack Cox, the draft-eligible sophomore third baseman for the University of Arkansas, who many project as a top 10 pick: He struck out in 29.1% of his plate appearances last year for the Razorbacks. His tool set is impressive and he should have plenty of defensive value, but his contact rate was horrible – granted it was his freshman year.

If you have or will see any of these players (or any you feel like mentioning) join our Forums or become a part of our Scouting Department. All input is welcome, because if you’re reading this site we figure you’re already pretty smart!

I am going to make sure that Project Prospect has the best draft coverage available anywhere. There is the possibility of doing a draft guide, similar to the DPG (available very soon, pre-order now!) and combining the best draft minds in the game. Keep your computer machines tuned here for first-hand scouting, quantitative and video information that is hopefully presented in an informative and entertaining way.

Follow me on Twitter @LHamiltonPP or shoot me an email at LHamilton@projectprospect.com.