Everyone brings something to the table. It's up to decision makers to pick out a blend of strengths and weaknesses from each.
I created the list below by separating out the 58 prospects who made BA, BP, ESPN, AOL and our Top 100 lists -- had to be listed as Top 100 on all five. Players are ranked by their average position on the five lists. If you're looking for a good overview of the general industry feelings on a guy entering 2010, this should be a valuable point of reference -- bookmark me :).
| 2010's Industry Top 50+ Prospect List | ||||||||||||||||||
| No. | Player | PP | BA | BP | ESPN | AOL | Comments | Ave. | S.D. | |||||||||
| 1 | Jason Heyward | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | Lot of talent, tons of hype - so much that there was a fan uproar when Piliere ranked him 4th | 1.8 | 1.3 | |||||||||
| 2 | Stephen Strasburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | We think Strasburg's a bigger injury risk than the average pitcher - that's why he's 4th for us | 2.0 | 1.2 | |||||||||
| 3 | Desmond Jennings | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | Potential above-average defensive CF is a great contact hitter with some pop & lots of speed | 4.8 | 2.2 | |||||||||
| 4 | Jesus Montero | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 5 | Anyone who thinks Montero's a C is in the minority, but the bat could be top 5 in baseball | 5.2 | 2.8 | |||||||||
| 5 | Mike Stanton | 15 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | Who doesn't love 80 power? There's a chance his poor contact skills will limit him; big ceiling | 6.0 | 5.2 | |||||||||
| 6 | Buster Posey | 8 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 7 | Very polished hitter and also a solid defender; wore down at AFL & GB% could limit power | 7.0 | 1.9 | |||||||||
| 7 | Carlos Santana | 5 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 16 | Ranked higher than Posey by everyone but BA & AOL; we like his ceiling more than Posey's | 8.4 | 5.0 | |||||||||
| 8 | Neftali Feliz | 14 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 6 | Has the stuff to be a No. 1; all he needs to prove is that he can throw 175+ innings a year | 9.0 | 4.6 | |||||||||
| 9 | Brian Matusz | 7 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 8 | Arsenal is outstanding - polished and dynamic; his arm action isn't perfect; there is some risk | 9.8 | 5.1 | |||||||||
| 10 | Dustin Ackley | 6 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 18 | Case can be made that he was a better NCAA hitter than Posey; not as much defensive value | 11.0 | 4.6 | |||||||||
| 11 | Justin Smoak | 9 | 13 | 17 | 9 | 22 | Close to MLB-ready & could be a huge power threat - patient, too; limited to 1B on D, though | 14.0 | 5.6 | |||||||||
| 12 | Martin Perez | 26 | 17 | 15 | 7 | 9 | No one doubts his arsenal and upside; we're cautious w/ young SP until they prove durable | 14.8 | 7.5 | |||||||||
| 13 | Pedro Alvarez | 12 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 13 | Power bat is liked by all - Law has some hesitation, though - we don't think he'll stick at 3B | 14.8 | 11.6 | |||||||||
| 14 | Domonic Brown | 24 | 15 | 24 | 14 | 19 | Consensus top talent; we don't think his ceiling's nearly as high as others do - awkward hitter | 19.2 | 4.8 | |||||||||
| 15 | Madison Bumgarner | 23 | 14 | 21 | 28 | 14 | More questions about his upside this year than last; FB may be plus but his secondary isn't | 20.0 | 6.0 | |||||||||
| 16 | Starlin Castro | 36 | 16 | 37 | 12 | 11 | Very talented contact hitter w/ some patience; lack of power and speed may limit his upside | 22.4 | 13.0 | |||||||||
| 17 | Alcides Escobar | 11 | 12 | 19 | 54 | 20 | Already a plus defender at an up-the-middle position; the bat just may not be better than avg. | 23.2 | 17.7 | |||||||||
| 18 | Aroldis Chapman | 32 | 22 | 10 | 16 | 36 | Limited exposure prior to 2010 but we all like the ceiling and see him as a potential No. 1-2 | 23.2 | 10.8 | |||||||||
| 19 | Chris Carter | 25 | 28 | 11 | 33 | 26 | Bat could be above-avg. in the bigs; KG thinks he could be avg. on D - we don't see it | 24.6 | 8.2 | |||||||||
| 20 | Michael Taylor | 13 | 29 | 20 | 24 | 38 | Looking like a good bet to become avg. or better; could hit 25+ HR a season w/ solid patience | 24.8 | 9.4 | |||||||||
| 21 | Wade Davis | 28 | 34 | 34 | 15 | 17 | Been on the prospect radar for a while now; looking like a strong bet to be a No. 2-3 starter | 25.6 | 9.1 | |||||||||
| 22 | Casey Kelly | 35 | 24 | 30 | 18 | 24 | Very impressive 1st season as a SP; polished arsenal and he knows how to pitch; 2-3 upside | 26.2 | 6.5 | |||||||||
| 23 | Ryan Westmoreland | 27 | 21 | 14 | 32 | 39 | No one doubts the tools; we just want to see him over a full season; best 30/30 bet in MiLB? | 26.6 | 9.7 | |||||||||
| 24 | Jeremy Hellickson | 77 | 18 | 13 | 17 | 10 | Statistical prowess & very polished arsenal; we don't think he's a good bet to be a durable SP | 27.0 | 28.1 | |||||||||
| 25 | Brett Wallace | 29 | 27 | 44 | 20 | 28 | Elite combo of power & contact skills, though BB% has varied; glove could be plus at 1B | 29.6 | 8.8 | |||||||||
| 26 | Aaron Hicks | 50 | 19 | 26 | 19 | 40 | Outstanding athlete plays a fine CF, is very patient & a good contact hitter; how much pwr? | 30.8 | 13.7 | |||||||||
| 27 | Logan Morrison | 19 | 20 | 50 | 21 | 51 | Likely bet to become an average MLB hitter; his power upside isn't that high; limited to 1B | 32.2 | 16.7 | |||||||||
| 28 | Derek Norris | 31 | 38 | 28 | 31 | 35 | We all like his bat; plus power hitter w/ a lot of patience; he's a poor bet to stick at C overall | 32.6 | 3.9 | |||||||||
| 29 | Kyle Drabek | 72 | 25 | 16 | 40 | 15 | We don't think his upside is much more than No. 3 starter; don’t expect a long, durable career | 33.6 | 23.7 | |||||||||
| 30 | Christian Friedrich | 88 | 33 | 22 | 36 | 12 | Curve is a swing-and-miss pitch & he has good command; can he handle a SP's workload? | 38.2 | 29.4 | |||||||||
| 31 | Josh Bell | 16 | 37 | 39 | 61 | 42 | Really impressed us with his D at 3B and power in '09; could be a guy who strikes out a lot | 39.0 | 16.0 | |||||||||
| 32 | Lonnie Chisenhall | 41 | 31 | 43 | 26 | 68 | He has a powerful bat and makes a lot of contact; below-avg. patience?; should stick at 3B | 41.8 | 16.2 | |||||||||
| 33 | Jarrod Parker | 66 | 36 | 52 | 37 | 21 | Raw stuff really isn't far behind Strasburg's, but the mechanics are ugly and he had TJ in '09 | 42.4 | 17.2 | |||||||||
| 34 | Tyler Matzek | 53 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 94 | Stands out from '09 HS arms because of potential for a deep arsenal; HS pitchers are risky | 43.0 | 31.4 | |||||||||
| 35 | Mike Montgomery | 52 | 39 | 36 | 75 | 34 | Lefty took off in the second half of '09 - when he found his command; has No. 1-2 potential | 47.2 | 17.0 | |||||||||
| 36 | Jenny Mejia | 100 | 56 | 48 | 23 | 23 | Love velo & movement? Here's your guy. Cautious w/ mediocre command? We warned you. | 50.0 | 31.6 | |||||||||
| 37 | Todd Frazier | 33 | 43 | 67 | 66 | 56 | Comes w/ unorthodox hitting mechanics and defensive uncertainty; we all like him, though | 53.0 | 14.8 | |||||||||
| 38 | Michael Saunders | 70 | 30 | 62 | 74 | 30 | Probably not a MLB center fielder; Question is can he make regular contact & still hit for power? | 53.2 | 21.6 | |||||||||
| 39 | Zach Britton | 51 | 63 | 73 | 25 | 55 | The highest-upside GB pitcher in the minors; potential ace has just been a bit of a late bloomer | 53.4 | 18.0 | |||||||||
| 40 | Freedie Freeman | 73 | 32 | 51 | 67 | 49 | Solid athlete but limited to first base; though he's big and powerful he's off balance regularly | 54.4 | 18.6 | |||||||||
| 41 | Fernando Martinez | 10 | 77 | 80 | 73 | 33 | There are two schools of thought w/ him: 1) High-upside injury risk and 2) Injuries overblown | 54.6 | 31.4 | |||||||||
| 42 | Jason Castro | 47 | 41 | 100 | 65 | 27 | Plus defensive catcher won't hit for a lot of power but should have a lengthy MLB career | 56.0 | 28.1 | |||||||||
| 43 | Tanner Scheppers | 61 | 42 | 68 | 78 | 31 | His upside is No. 1-2 starter; just has some command and durability questions to answer 1st | 56.0 | 19.2 | |||||||||
| 44 | Mike Leake | 20 | 72 | 59 | 72 | 61 | We love his deep arsenal, approach to pitching & durable track record; others question upside | 56.8 | 21.4 | |||||||||
| 45 | Wilson Ramos | 59 | 58 | 65 | 42 | 66 | May not be a very good defensive catcher but the bat could play very well for the position | 58.0 | 9.6 | |||||||||
| 46 | Mike Trout | 54 | 85 | 53 | 49 | 52 | His speed & instincts should play fine at CF; relatively polished hitter but power may be limited | 58.6 | 14.9 | |||||||||
| 47 | Jacob Turner | 74 | 26 | 25 | 80 | 90 | Another guy for the velo fan; remember that next to no prep pitchers come w/ avg. command | 59.0 | 31.1 | |||||||||
| 48 | Julio Teheran | 86 | 51 | 33 | 63 | 74 | Definitely '10 breakout candidate; good command of stuff w/ electric potential; how durable? | 61.4 | 20.5 | |||||||||
| 49 | Austin Jackson | 98 | 76 | 49 | 70 | 25 | Good athlete; some question if he's a CF long term & he has lots of work to do w/ his swing | 63.6 | 27.8 | |||||||||
| 50 | Ike Davis | 57 | 62 | 87 | 64 | 58 | Crushes the ball but swing is long & he struggles with off-speed; should provide good D at 1B | 65.6 | 12.3 | |||||||||
| 51 | Brett Lawrie | 40 | 59 | 99 | 47 | 87 | Will shoot up prospect lists in '10 if he proves himself as a 2B; a balanced all-around hitter | 66.4 | 25.6 | |||||||||
| 52 | Tyler Flowers | 78 | 60 | 72 | 58 | 67 | Power potential is too much to overlook, but may not stick at C and isn't a good contact hitter | 67.0 | 8.3 | |||||||||
| 53 | Chris Withrow | 65 | 48 | 40 | 83 | 100 | Stuff to be a No. 1-2 starter but poor command and mechanics are both significant concerns | 67.2 | 24.7 | |||||||||
| 54 | Tony Sanchez | 42 | 79 | 75 | 82 | 75 | Appears to be a near-lock to stick at C, where his bat could be an asset; limited track record | 70.6 | 16.3 | |||||||||
| 55 | Jared Mitchell | 55 | 55 | 61 | 95 | 91 | A sprinter in a baseball uniform w/ serious patience and power; contact is a concern, though | 71.4 | 19.9 | |||||||||
| 56 | Jake Arrieta | 58 | 99 | 70 | 90 | 48 | Can overpower hitters with his stuff, which is good because his command isn't too sharp | 73.0 | 21.4 | |||||||||
| 57 | Grant Green | 82 | 52 | 86 | 93 | 64 | Decent bet to stick at SS in pro ball; possible case of drafitis knocked him down a bit in 2009 | 75.4 | 16.9 | |||||||||
| 58 | Hank Conger | 87 | 84 | 81 | 52 | 88 | Standout contact hitter shows power potential & patience; injury history & may not stick at C | 78.4 | 15.0 | |||||||||
| * I define a Five-Star Prospect as a player who was ranked inside the Top 100 for Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, AOL and Project Prospect | ||||||||||||||||||
| ** If you're looking for age, highest level and position information, click this link to see Project Prospect's Top 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Don't forget to check out our forums -- lots of great draft talk and conversations about scouting, numbers and prospects (people are pretty respectful, too >>> | ||||||||||||||||||
If you aren't familiar with one or a few of the sources that were used above, I've provided my quick thoughts on the historical tendances of each. While I look at prospects different than all of these guys, I value them all as valuable contributors in the industry and hold their efforts in high regard.
Project Prospect is frequently called out for its preference for high-floor talents over high-ceiling talents.
Baseball America has been ranking prospects for over two decades and is highly respected in the industry.
Baseball Prospectus relies almost exclusively on scouting reports (over numbers) and puts a ton of weight into ceiling.
ESPN does a lot of first-hand scouting, values ceiling over floor and is still relatively new to the prospect ranking scene.
AOL brought a former Rangers scout/the Saberscouting co-founder to provide a player-development spin on baseball.