Project Fantasy: Post-Hype Sleepers

April 11, 2010

Pursuing highly-rated prospects can be a nice way to build your keeper league team, but there can be great values out there in players who are a year or two removed from being considered top prospects.

Prior to the 2009 season, Adam Lind was a prime example of a “post-hype sleeper”. While the once highly-touted prospect took his lumps, his numbers were generally headed in the right direction – 3.9% drop in strikeouts from 2007 to 2008, for instance. After getting regular playing time in the second half of 2008, he had a great shot at a full-time job the following year. Best of all, he was cheap in most fantasy leagues. Now Lind may be the most coveted power-hitting outfielder in the American League.

Here are seven of my favorite post-hype sleepers for 2010:

3B Alex Gordon, KC
2010 Age: 26
Final Preseason Prospect Ranking (2007): PP #2, BA #2

One of the most buzzed about young hitters of the past decade, the snake-bitten Gordon has been a disappointment in Kansas City thus far. After a promising 2008 season (.338 wOBA), which included a .277/.392/.496 post All-Star break line, he was forced to have hip surgery the following April and appeared in only 49 games in 2009 (.311 wOBA). Don’t give up hope on the 2005 Golden Spikes Award winner and 2nd overall pick just yet; he could be a great buy-low candidate coming off his most recent injury (broken thumb). The pressure on him should be eased a bit now that attention has shifted to teammates Zack Greinke and Billy Butler. Other factors have likely played a role for him as well: he’s had a weak supporting cast and he jumped to the majors after only one MiLB season (in AA). He may not ever turn into Evan Longoria or Ryan Zimmerman offensively, but Gordon has the potential to outperform third basemen being drafted well ahead of him, such as Chipper Jones or Jorge Cantu.

LF/1B Matt LaPorta, CLE
2010 Age: 25
(2009): PP #14, BA #27

LaPorta, the 7th overall pick in 2007 and a key piece in the C.C. Sabathia-to-Milwaukee deal, is a player to keep an eye on. The University of Florida alum had a nice showing in Triple-A (.231 IsoP, 10.7 BB%, 14.5 K% in 393 PA) and a respectable MLB debut, with a .324 wOBA and 7 HR in 198 plate appearances. Even after Russell Branyan returns to the Indians’ lineup, Laporta is expected to get regular playing time. With a full season of Major League plate appearances, 25 HR and a .350 OBP are certainly attainable for LaPorta.

CF Cameron Maybin, FLA
2010 Age: 23
(2009): PP #3, BA #8

Another high 1st round pick (10th overall in 2005) and trade piece (Miguel Cabrera/Detroit), Maybin is still only 23 years old. He was able to cut his strikeouts down about 10% from 2008 (458 PA in AA) to 2009 (342 PA in AAA), which leaves plenty of room for optimism. After wrapping the year up with the Marlins and posting a .353 wOBA in September, he has the CF job locked up. With plus speed and above-average patience, he should steal his fair share of bases, though his 56% ground-ball rate (540 PA in 2009) means he probably won’t be a big home-run hitter yet.

CF Colby Rasmus, STL
2010 Age: Turns 24 in August
(2009): PP#4, BA #3

Rasmus has continually been one of the youngest players at his level and was unanimously considered an elite prospect going into 2009. He got off to a decent start in the bigs, posting 16 HR and avoiding a spike in strikeouts (18.7%) while spending the entire season at the top level (518 PA). The 2005 1st round pick’s past numbers indicate that his walks should pick up. He went through a strange stretch in May and June where he walked only 3 times in 176 PA, which dragged down his OBP (only 6.9 BB% on the year). With the number of fly balls he hits and his power potential, Rasmus should be an annual 25+ home run threat who can steal 15-20 stolen bases. Like Maybin, Rasmus could be especially valuable in leagues that require owners to start a center fielder.

LF Travis Snider, TOR
2010 Age: 22
(2009): PP #8, BA #6

If you’re looking for the 2010 version of Adam Lind, his teammate Snider could end up being your man. Keep in mind Lind turned 26 last season, meaning Snider is several years younger, but 30+ home runs certainly isn’t out of the question – Snider hit 23 between AAA and the majors in just over 400 at-bats in 2009. The 14th overall pick in 2006, “Moonraker” put up a crazy .460 wOBA in 204 Triple-A plate appearances last year; based on Toronto’s thin outfield situation he’s probably up for good, too. Despite possessing below-average speed and contact ability, Snider could put up power numbers that still make him an above-average big leaguer.

SP Homer Bailey, CIN
2010 Age: Turns 24 in May
(2008): PP #12, BA #9

Bailey has been bounced between Triple-A and Cincinnati for the past three seasons. And though he has struggled a bit, he’s certainly made progress as well. His command had been an issue in past seasons, but in 2009 he lowered his walk rate down to 7.1% in Triple-A (379 TBF), while striking out a solid 21.6%. Bailey’s MLB FIP of 4.37 (496 TBF) was also a nice improvement over the previous two years. His workload doesn’t seem to be an issue; those of you following at home will notice he surpassed 200 innings in addition to finishing the year strong for the Reds. You may not want to pencil him in your starting rotation quite yet in shallower leagues, but the 7th overall pick of 2004 has a good chance of outperforming his late-round draft position and could be a highly-owned player very soon.

SP Clay Buchholz, BOS
2010 Age: Turns 26 in August
(2008): PP #4, BA #4

After dominating Triple-A in 2009 (3.19 FIP over 387 TBF), Buchholz will need to continue to prove himself in the early going. The 2005 sandwich pick’s strikeout rate dipped at the MLB level last season (17.0% over 399 TBF), but his history points to a future in the 20%+ range. Buchholz’s ground-ball rates jumped up in 2009, as he posted elite numbers in Triple-A and the Majors. If he can continue to cut down on his free passes in the Majors, Buchholz could start to recognize his ace potential.

 

I used the following criteria in my post-hype sleeper research:

1) Solid or improving numbers (in AAA or MLB), but hasn’t grabbed a lot of positive attention on SportsCenter or fantasy blogs yet. As far as the stats go, K% and BB% are always good places to start.

2) Widely considered outside the top 150 or so fantasy players going into the season My reasoning: I don’t consider Clayton Kershaw a “sleeper” when he’s being taken in roughly the 9th round. There’s a chance he could outperform his top 120 draft position this year, but expecting a lot from a relatively inexperienced player is generally risky (most Alexei Ramirez and Chris Davis owners last season would agree).

3) Age shouldn’t be any higher than 27 in the upcoming season. If he hasn’t showed signs of becoming a top fantasy player at his position by age 26, chances are it’s not going to happen.

4) Good shot at a starting position going into the season, or at least regular MLB playing time.

5) Actually hyped at some point.

Who is your favorite post-hype sleeper in 2010? Discuss in our forums here.