RENDON Rankings Part II

We’ve already covered the handful of likely first-rounders, but this year’s college position player class is deeper than some may think. I ran 50 players through my RENDON system and here’s what came out:

 

A quick primer on RENDON: using every top 50 pick since 2001, I developed an algorithm to rank the likelihood of MLB success from college statistics. Focusing on year-to-year trends and previous outcomes of previous players, the RENDON system is a more accurate forecast of MLB offensive success than draft position by nearly 70%. A total score of over 470 is sort of the baseline, under that and the odds of a player turning into an average big league hitter are very low.

Fullerton centerfielder Gary Brown snuck into the back of the first round on the strength of his outstanding contact ability and elite speed. Despite being an 80 runner, Brown isn’t a potential leadoff hitter since his walk totals are still in single digits (9 on the season). Brown has the lowest single season walk rate since Julio Borbon walked 3.3% of the time in 2007. Borbon’s extreme lack of patience has held back his major league performance; it seems likely that Brown will follow in a similar mold.

Virginia center fielder Jarrett Parker is a plus runner and looks good in a uniform. Unfortunately Parker’s contact ability needs to improve greatly in order for him to reach his considerable potential. The track record of similar players making those adjustments isn’t pretty.

Jedd Gyorko just hits. It’s not pretty, he isn’t an elite athlete and might not have much defensive value. But he hits. Gyorko got some late buzz as a potential late first-round pick, in terms of college production he’d be a worthy selection.

Kyle Parker has spent his time at Clemson pulling double duty as an outfielder and quarterback. Thought of as a potential tough sign due to his football commitment, Parker is still raw as a baseball player. His high strikeout rate indicate that his pitch recognition still needs improvement, something it’s possible experience could change. He’s a high risk/reward guy with the physical tools for right field.

LSU backstop Micah Gibbs has gotten a lot of buzz as the potential second college catcher off the board after Yasmani Grandal, his college performance doesn’t warrant that high of a selection. While slugging a solid .622 through the end of the regular season, Gibbs’ power is a function of batting average and LSU’s hitter friendly home park. Gibbs’ .167 park adjusted IsoP is only a tiny improvement over the .131 mark he posted in 2009. While he’s a good defender who works well with pitchers, combining below-average power with mediocre plate discipline isn’t a recipe for big league success historically.

Austin Wates is one of the more difficult prospects to figure out in this year’s draft. A good athlete, Wates is right on the cusp of a first round production grade. Despite his athletic ability he’s played mostly first base defensively and doesn’t project to hit for much power. Wates made terrific strides with his plate discipline this year, more than doubling his walk rate while cutting four percent off his strikeout rate. My guess is a team grabs him in the second round and hopes he can learn to play the outfield where he could surface as an above-average regular.

Hunter Morris is generally thought of as the top college first baseman on the board, but poor contact doesn’t bode well for the Auburn star. Morris’s walk rate is well below what you’d expect out of someone with his power. This may be hinting at problems with Morris just being too aggressive at the plate – a problem that is very hard to correct.

Todd Cunningham is solid. He may never be a star, but Cunningham is a relatively safe bet to be a solid average big leaguer.

Georgia Tech shortstop Derek Dietrich has been fantastic in 2010 after a 2009 in which he struggled to make contact or hit for any power. While he will likely have to shift off of short in the pros, if Dietrich can hold onto the gains he’s made this season he could be a valuable player. Generally when a player has two seasons that seem very dissimilar, his true talent level is somewhere in between.

Minnesota Golden Gopher Mike Kvasnicka is another guy who really blossomed in 2010. The gains Kvasnicka made in plate discipline from 2010 to 2009 are unprecedented. He tripled his walk rate while cutting his strikeout rate by more than half. If a team thinks Kvasnicka can stick at catcher, there’s solid upside. But if Kvasnicka is a corner outfielder long-term a team will have to believe that nearly all the 2010 improvement is Kvasnicka’s true talent level. RENDON is slightly skeptical of such a huge jump.

Ryan LaMarre has battled injuries in 2010 which may have depressed some of his production. LaMarre is a gamer with solid tools across the board. If you assume that the crash in walk rate is a fluke (as RENDON does) then you might be looking at a potential every day guy. LaMarre has been tied to the Yankees (although the Yankees seem like they’re on everyone this spring) may have been taken at the end of the first round by some teams, but he was more likely either a supplemental pick or a second rounder for most teams.

Pittsburg third baseman Joe Leonard stands 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds but isn’t the masher his frame would suggest. With an aggressive, contact oriented approach, RENDON isn’t bullish on Leonard’s long-term success at a power position. Below-average patience and power isn’t a great combo.

Andy Wilkins may have gotten a little unlucky this spring, .268 BABIP while the SEC average is nearly .350 BABIP, but slight contact issues worry RENDON. Wilkins does have the power and patience to be an everyday first baseman and if he can continue his modest improvement in contact, Wilkins could be good value in the 3rd or 4th round.

Chris Bisson is a speedy glovesman and hits like it.

College catching is always a high priority and UC Riverside’s Robert Brantly has a strong arm and has made good contact. While some scouts see power in Brantly’s future, it’s only five o’clock power right now. As I’ve said before, combining below-average power and patience isn’t a good combo.

Kevin Keyes was on some breakout lists entering the spring, as a big, strong kid with solid athleticism. However the University of Texas star continued to struggle making consistent contact, a problem which limits his pro potential.

Tyler Holt is going to get on-base. He’s going to be fast, steal bases and track down balls in center. For a potential 3rd-4th round draft pick, that’s really terrific value.

Rice shortstop Rick Hague started his collegiate career with much fanfare but has consistently struggled to make contact. Someone will take a gamble on the tools pretty early, but the track record of players with similar problems suggests it’s a long shot that Hague turns it around.

Similar to Micah Gibbs or Rob Brantly, Texas’s Cam Rupp draws plenty of interest because of his position. Thought of as a potential everyday backstop who can hit a little, RENDON, again, foresees problems with contact being a detriment to Rupp’s big league hopes.

Rob Segedin missed most of 2009 with a lower back injury so there is more uncertainty in his projection than most. However, Segedin was productive as a freshman and his 2010 campaign stacks up next to anyone. There are concerns about his ultimate defensive home, his range is sub-par at third but he has soft hands and a strong arm. Even with the limited track record there is little doubt that Segedin is one of the better pure hitters in this draft.

Josh Rutledge is one of the few college shortstops who should actually stick at that position in the pros. However his lack of patience and power don’t portend well to his future hitting ability.

LSU centerfielder Leon Landry made terrific strides in his contact ability this year, however it came at the expense of a few walks and some power. Landry is a legit plus runner who should stick in center, but it’s unlikely that he turns into the leadoff hitter his tools suggest he could become.

Manning the hot corner for UConn, Mike Olt has gotten some love as a potential sleeper. Not to sound like a broken record, but players who strikeout as much as Olt did in college tend to have serious problems making consistent, quality contact versus high level pitching. Olt does have a solid set of tools and looks the part of a big leaguer in uniform. To channel my inner Billy Beane, “we’re not selling jeans here people.”

LSU’s Blake Dean didn’t have the 2010 that some, including myself, had figured, instead he actually took a slight step back from his previous production. He’s stuck on a corner defensively but as a late senior sign, Dean does offer solid offensive potential. He’s proven he can control the strike zone.

College infielders have a strong track record of success, but not ones who strikeout as often as Ross Wilson. The Alabama second baseman could be an asset defensively and will take a walk, but is likely to struggle against high level pitching.

San Diego State’s Cory Vaughn may have been unfairly criticized for his lack of power, since many assume that the son of former All-Star, Greg Vaughn should hit 50 homers like his dad. The younger Vaughn is a good athlete with some upside but if he still strikes out a quarter of the time with Tony Gwynn as his coach, things aren’t likely to improve.

Blake Forsythe has shown really intriguing power from the catching position but, again, lack of contact is the cause of many an unfulfilled signing bonus.

Forsythe’s Tennessee teammate Cody Hawn failed to build on an outstanding 2009 season with his patience, contact, power and overall production all trending in the wrong direction. A shoulder injury may have hampered his 2010 production but RENDON doesn’t know that. While Hawn is built like a slightly bigger Matt Stairs, he does have legit plus power. If the 2010 decrease in production is actually medical and not talent related, Hawn could be good value in the mid rounds.

Cody Stanley made my sleepers list as a good athlete. Playing a key position, he combines potential with production. Stanley has made strong improvements in controlling the strike zone while hitting for solid power. While the catcher’s 2009 and 2010 stat lines are pretty similar (OPS only varies by about 40 points) his RENDON year scores are virtually identical -- less than half a point different. I'm not sure what it means other than RENDON likes consistency.

Sir Gauntlett Eldemire, Esquire needs to improve his contact ability but I really want him to make the big leagues so I can have a baseball card that says Gauntlett Eldemire.

East Carolina outfielder Devin Harris has the tools to be a star, but it’s really hard to be a star when you swing and miss that often. If you learn nothing else from me, learn the importance of simply making contact!

Harris’s ECU teammate, first baseman Kyle Roller is enjoying a breakout senior season. Showing good power and drawing tons of walks, Roller still doesn’t come out well according to RENDON because, historically, guys who see a big jump in production as seniors don’t retain much of that ability in the future. I call it the Khalil Greene rule: One great season does not a prospect make.

Mike McGee is one of the more talented two-way players in the country, splitting time between the mound and right field for the Florida State Seminoles. McGee’s offensive production has slipped a big in 2010, making for the poor RENDON score, has his power has taken a big dip and his contact has remained borderline. There have been a few times when McGee, the team’s closer, hasn’t come in for the save and there are rumors that McGee has been dealing with an injury this spring.

Aaron Westlake is a good example of a very solid college hitter not getting much RENDON love. While nothing in his production profile is bad, his patience and power are both a little below-average and there don’t appear to be any big strengths to overcome that.

Curt Casali is a personal favorite and deep sleeper. The Vanderbilt slugger elected to forgo having Tommy John surgery until the end of the 2009 season so he could still play first base. Casali dealt with hamstring problems in 2010, which may have hurt his production, but still toughed it out. If he’s healthy, and he hasn’t been in a while, he’s shown the ability to work a walk, make contact while hitting for a little power. If a team thinks he can hold down the catcher spot defensively, he could be a steal. Casali comes with a good deal of risk, but little of it has to do with his talent and none has to do with his character.

University of Houston infielder Blake Kelso could be a good defender and makes contact. But you need at least some power with a metal bat in college to project as a big league hitter, Kelso is yet to show that.

Cal’s Mark Canha is another personal favorite for a deep sleeper. The emotional leader for some good Cal Bear teams, Canha has split time defensively between the right field and first base and could hold down either full time. A well balanced hitter who most scouts project to hit for more power down the road, as he grows into his 6-foot-2, 200 pound frame. A solid all-around player with few holes in his game, Canha should provide good value. Don’t be surprised if he’s a starter a few years down the road.

Jaren Matthews is a solid athlete who looks like he should hit for some power, unfortunately the production hasn’t been there. The Rutgers first baseman has seen time in the outfield and could likely hold down a corner spot pretty well.

AJ Kirby-Jones is well known to many draft geeks (a term of endearment) because of his elite power and patience. RENDON is set up specifically to dislike guys with strikeout rates over 17%, and Kirby-Jones has whiffed in over 20% of his plate appearances each of the past two years versus a low level of competition. Yet, RENDON still sees Kirby-Jones as one of the elite producers in this draft class because his patience and power are almost off-the-charts great. I’m not sure what the future has in store for Kirby-Jones, I do know that I’ll be excited to find out.

Somewhat similar to Tulane’s Rob Segedin, Stewart Ijames was forced to take a medical redshirt in 2009 but has big league potential. There aren’t many players with similar track records in my database, so I have less faith in these scores than most. Ijames does have good tools and made very good contact this spring. Both his patience and power are, at least, average and he should be able to hold down a corner spot well defensively. As a 4th or 5th round pick, Ijames is worth the risk.

Ijames’ teammates Phil Wunderlich and Andrew Clark both made my sleepers list, Clark because of his patience and Wunderlich because of his power, each combining their skill with top-notch contact ability.

Wunderlich actually has the highest score of any of the 50 players on this list. This does *not* mean that Wunderlich ought to be the first pick. Simply that he has produced a very high level and seems to be undervalued in the current draft process. The RENDON system is more about putting guys in tiers and important cut offs, than specific individual rankings.

Dan Grovatt and Jeff Schaus are both solid contact hitters with some defensive versatility. Neither guy has been overly productive or project to hit for much power, but I wouldn’t rule out either one of them surfacing as a decent utility guy.

 

Shoot Lincoln an email LHamilton@projectprospect.com or follow him on Twitter @LHamiltonPP.