College World Series Scouting Preview

June 19, 2010

The College World Series returns this weekend, in the yearly celebration of all things great about amateur baseball. This year's affair, the last at famed Rosenblatt Stadium, pits eight high profile college programs, each brimming with talent. Let's take a look a few of the headliners, from a scouting and draft perspective. 

 

TCU

Six Horn Frogs were selected in the 2010 MLB draft, the highest being Senior catcher Bryan Holaday drafted in the sixth round by Detroit. Holaday has posted a very solid .350/.436/.599 line so far this year but, despite decent production and above-average raw strength, is more of a defender than a hitter. One of the nation's best defensive catchers, Holaday has consistent pop times in the 1.9 range and, despite not being a great athlete, moves well behind the plate. The emotional leader of the Horn Frogs, Holaday doesn't have a huge ceiling but could surface as a quality backup and potential coach down the line. 

Saturday starter Steven Maxwell was drafted in the 12th round by the Twins. Somewhat generously listed at 6-foot and 180 pounds, Maxwell doesn't offer much in the way of physical projection but does have a decent three-pitch mix. Maxwell commands a 88-90 MPH fastball well and compliments it with a fringy changeup and a potential above-average slurvy breaking ball. Maxwell fits the Twins model since he has solid command and an advanced knowledge of how to pitch. He did lose most of the 2008 season after under going Tommy John surgery, so there is some medical risk with him. 

The Milwaukee Brewers made an upside play in the 11th round with the selection of Greg Holle. A swing-man for TCU's pitching staff, Holle started five games and relieved in 10 others. Holle is living proof, as if we needed it, that ERA doesn't mean much, especially for college pitchers. Holle posted an 8.02 ERA in 33.2 inning this year, the highest on the staff. However Holle is 6-foot-8 and an excellent athlete. The Brewers are hoping their gamble will pay off with Holle becoming a power reliever. 

While the six Horn Frogs taken in the 2010 draft won't get you uber-excited, possible 2011 top ten pick Matt Purke will. I'll assume if you're a regular reader of this site that you're somewhat familiar with Purke. A first round pick out of high school in 2009 by the Texas Rangers, Purke failed to sign and became one of the highest profile college freshman in recent history. Purke, who will be a draft-eligible sophomore next year, entered the season with almost insurmountable expectations and some how surpassed them all.

Going a perfect 14-0 this year, Purke struck out 31.6% of batters he faced while walking only 6.6%. He held opposing hitters to a paltry .219 average against and only 22.6% of the 84 hits he allowed went for extra bases. The big lefty can run his fastball into the mid-90's but usually sits 92-93 MPH. Purke used a two-seamer more as the season went on, getting good sinking action out of the 87-89 MPH offering. Purke's changeup has good, late tumble. And his breaking ball has plus movement. The only big concern with Purke going forward is his somewhat unorthodox motion, which causes him to sling the ball towards home. Still, his upside and track record will likely get him drafted near the top of the 2011 MLB draft. 

 

Florida State

Like their first opponent, TCU, Florida State also had six players drafted. The best of which was Tyler Holt, who fell to the tenth round where he was selected 300th overall by Cleveland. There are not 300 better players in this, or any, draft than Tyler Holt. The draft is filled with uncertainty. Talent evaluators attempt to see into the future, to guess how well players will grow and what skills will improve. Tyler Holt provides more certainty than most. He will put up patient at-bats. He will chase down balls in center field. True leadoff hitters are hard to find and Holt projects as one as well as anyone in college. He's also one of the few players in the 2010 draft with a shot at being a plus defender at a key position. 

Mike McGee lasted until Arizona grabbed him in the 41st round, despite being named a First Team All-American by Baseball America as a two-way player. McGee struggled a bit to end the year, but has the arm strength and power potential to be a solid right fielder. Given how low he was drafted, it appears likely that McGee will return for his senior season.

Left hander John Gast was the Seminoles' highest drafted player. His fastball will show above-average velocity and his power curveball has a chance to be an out-pitch. But Gast struggled to end the season and it's likely that the only action he'll see in Omaha will be out of the bullpen.  

The top 2011 prospect for FSU appears to be Friday night starter Sean Gilmartin. Gilmartin won't be mentioned with the rest of the talented 2011 college pitching class, but could go in the 2nd or 3rd round as an advanced pitchability lefty. 

 

Florida

For the second straight season, Florida's highest drafted player was their closer. Kevin Chapman was popped in the 4th round by Kansas City after replacing the Twins 2009 second round choice, Billy Bullock as the Gators' relief ace. While Bullock may have a slight edge in velocity, Chapman probably has better all-around stuff. His fastball sits 92-94 MPH and he has a swing-and-miss slider to go with a solid change up. Chapman only allowed seven earned runs all season. A polished, left-haned power reliever, he should move very quickly threw the Royals system.

The Mets selected Gator center fielder Matt den Dekker in the fifth round. A lefty with plus speed and some power potential, den Dekker has always intrigued scouts. But the production has always been a little short. As a senior, den Dekker should be one of the easiest players to sign in the draft who still has some upside.

The strength of this Florida team is it's youth. First baseman Preston Tucker will be one of the best all-around hitters in the 2011 draft, not named Anthony Rendon. A decent athlete, for a first baseman, Tucker should be a solid defender and was 8-for-8 stealing bases this spring. Tucker hasn't shown huge power, yet, but hit .339/.446/.564 with many more walks (43) than strike outs (27).

Sophomore southpaw Alex Panteliodis could get first round consideration. There aren't many left handers with command of a 93-95 MPH fastball like Panteliodis. Panteliodis worked a masterful complete game, three hitter in the Super Regionals in which he struck out 12 Miami Hurricanes and only walked one. He also boasts one of the best nicknames in college, Johnny Pants. 

For those with an eye already towards 2012, third baseman/catcher Austin Maddox displayed his prodigious abilities in Gainesville this spring. Thought of as a potential first round pick out of high school, Maddox walloped a team leading 17 home runs and has tremendous arm strength. However, Maddox actually had more hit by pitches (8) than walks (7) and still whiffed 41 times. Saying his ability to control the strike zone needs to improve is like saying BP needs to 'improve' cleaning up of the oil spill.  

Shortstop Nolan Fontana is a likely first round pick in 2012, making him one of the last before the world ends. Fontana has already been invited to play for Team USA, one of only four freshman granted that honor. A very smooth defender with solid range and a strong arm, he also has an excellent eye at the plate -- walked nearly twice as often (49) as he struck out (28). 

The Florida team is brimming with talent. Catcher Mike Zunino has been terrific behind the plate, but his BB:K (9:36) is almost as bad as Maddox's. Keep an eye on freshman two-way player Brian Johnson who was also invited to tryout for Team USA. 

UCLA

The Briuns of UCLA had an astounding 11 players drafted this year. The highest of which was second rounder Rob Rasmussen, chosen by the Marlins 73rd overall. Florida has demonstrated a strong preference for big, strong, projectable high school power arms in the draft. For them to take 5-foot-11 left hander who rarely runs his fastball above 92-93 MPH says a lot about Rasmussen's ability. Rasmussen was one of the best college starters in the country this spring, thanks to a quality four-pitch mix. His out-pitch is his curveball, but none of his offerings project to be below-average. Rasmussen has a smooth over-the-top delivery but he also has a tendency to really shorten his follow through, jamming the breaks on his pitching arm right after he releases. If he lets his arm come to a more natural stop, he could be a solid No. 3/4 starter.

Closer Dan Klien went to the Orioles in the third round. Not the prototypical flame-throwing closer, Klien actually has starter's stuff. His fastball sits 91-93 with good life and his change up and curveball are both well developed for a college reliever. Despite the stuff and athleticism to start, Klien has yet to prove durable enough to start, having thrown only 64.1 innings in his entire college career. 

There are some who find the sound of metal on ball to be only slightly less annoying than vuvulezas. Personally I love a loud PING cutting threw a warm Omaha night, but if you don't you should watch Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer pitch.  

Cole has been projected as a top 2011 pick from the moment he spurred the Yankees first-round offer out of high school. With some of the best arm strength you'll find in a starter, not named Strasburg, Cole will work his four-seamer 96-97 MPH and his two-seamer at 93-95 MPH with explosive late life. He has excellent feel for a changeup but his breaking stuff is inconsistent and one of the few things he needs to work on. There is some violence in his delivery, including a lot of recoil. These are things that can be smoothed out. Cole throws slightly across his body but gets outstanding leverage from his lower half and has solid timing from his arm action, getting the ball up into the drive-line early. 

It is almost impossible to watch Trevor Bauer and not think of Tim Lincecum. Bauer takes a long stride towards the plate and comes almost completely over-the-top thanks to a torso heavy tilt and Jaeger Sports approved 'pull down' phase in his delivery. This can take stress off the pitching arm while increasing velocity, if you are athletic enough to pull it off. Bauer actually graduated early so he could begin his college career and is young for his class, but still has big-time stuff. He can run his fastball into the mid-90's and his curveball shows plus. With the potential for two plus pitches and a strong track record, Bauer could make it two UCLA starters in the top 10 of the 2011 draft. 

Oklahoma

The Sooners, from a scouting perspective, appear to have very little to go on. They did have five players drafted, but none higher than 437th overall when second baseman Danny Black went to the Marlins (14th round). Black is a solid athlete and a good competitor but isn't much in the way of a potential big league hitter.

The Marlins, who scout the state of Oklahoma as thoroughly as anyone, took Sooner starter Zach Neal in the 17th round. An aggressive strike thrower, Neal has a four-pitch mix with his fastball and slider his primary two. None of his pitches are plus. While he's certainly effective at the college level, there isn't much in the way of potential going forward.  

South Carolina

South Carolina had seven players drafted this year, oddly four by the Royals. Personal favorite, Sam Dyson went to the Blue Jays in the fourth round. Dyson has seemingly overcome labrum problems (which can be very serious for pitchers) and shows outstanding velocity, with his fastball reaching 96-97 MPH. This year Dyson sacrificed some power for command; he started pitching instead of trying to blow up radar guns. Still working 93-94 MPH Dyson has greatly improved his command and combines his plus fastball with a swing-and-miss curveball. 

Kansas City took outfielder Whit Merrifield in the ninth round. The junior spent most of the year in right field, where his arm plays up, but is a plus runner with the range for center. Merrifield hit .327/.405/.506 with nearly has many walks (29) as strikeouts (31). Merrifield might not be more than a 4th outfielder, but if he can add some strength to his rail-thin frame (six feet tall and 160 pounds) he could pop up as a decent starter. 

Senior starter Blake Cooper was selected by Arizona in round 12. Cooper has a decent four-pitch mix but works off his 88-90 MPH sinker which induces tons of ground balls. Cooper is an undersized righty, standing only about 5-foot-10, but could surface as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

The Gamecocks have one of the top position player prospects for 2011 in Jackie Bradley Jr. A strong runner with a smooth left-handed swing, Bradley has a chance to go in the first round if he can improve on a very strong 2010 campaign in which he lead team in both batting average and on-base percentage, hitting .371/.477/.587 with more walks (38) than strikeouts (31). Bradley often gets compared to Denard Span, and while that may be an easy comp based on position and skin color, Bradley and Span actually do share similar skill sets and some mechanical similarities in their swings.  

Arizona State

The Sun Devils had ten players drafted including, rather remarkably, Joshua Spence a left-handed starter who tops out in the upper 80's and didn't pitch at all this season due to a mysterious elbow injury. The fact that the Padres still took Spence in the ninth round should give you an idea as to how great Spence's secondary stuff, command and pitchability are. 

Spence's Friday night replacement, Seth Blair, was a supplemental round pick of the Cardinals, 46th overall. Blair's fastball has plus velocity and movement. He has a deep repertoire of secondary stuff, lead by a curveball that is at least average with a chance to be plus. 

Closer Jordan Swagerty can run his fastball into the mid-90's but his best pitch is an outstanding curveball, one of the best in the nation. He'll get to follow his college teammate, Blair, in his development as the Cardinals took Swagerty with their second round selection. 

Sophomore second baseman Zack MacPhee hit .394/.491/.679 with 40 walks and 38 strikeouts while going 19-for-23 stealing bases. MacPhee will battle with Southern Miss's B.A. Vollmuth for the right to be the top college middle infielder in the 2011 class.

Keep an eye on sophomore first baseman Riccio Torrez, who hit .399/.491/.658 as the Sundevils' primary cleanup hitter. While he currently plays first base, Torrez was 20-for-24 stealing bases and could easily switch to another position. He'll have to improve his patience -- his OBP is buoyed by 23 HBPs. 

Clemson

Clemson actually boasts the only real first round pick, sorry supplemental round you don't count, in this year's CWS. Outfielder/quarterback Kyle Parker was the Rockies' first selection (26th overall). Likely because of the time he's spent playing football over the years, Parker is still a bit raw for a first round college baseball player. His pitch recognition needs to improve, as he struck out in over 19% of his plate appearances this year. But his patience greatly improved and his raw power is a legit plus tool. A solid athlete with, obviously, a strong arm, Parker has the physical ability to be a very good every day right fielder but he comes with a good deal of risk. 

Clemson had five other players drafted, but none in the top ten rounds. 

The 2011 class is bright for the Tigers. Shortstop Brad Miller hit.369/.471/.585 while drawing 49 walks which earned him a Team USA invite. And sophomore two-way player Will Lamb may have a strong future on the mound. With a big, projectable body and the ability to hit the low-90's from the left side. 

 

Stay tuned - computers 'tune into' websites, right? - for in-depth scouting reports as the CWS unfolds. 

 

Email Lincoln at LHamilton@projectprospect.com and follow him on Twitter @LHamiltonPP