The college baseball and amateur scouting seasons don't actually end with the College World Series or the June draft, only shift forward to the next round. After the hoopla surrounding Bryce Harper has died down and Western Kentucky catcher James Rice fades into the history books as the last player selected in the 2010 MLB draft (1525th by the Yankees) scouts, baseball execs and rabid fans are already well emersed in studying the next crop of young stars. Many of those stars have spent their summer honing their skills. In this piece we'll catch up with some of the 2011 MLB draft's best prospects.
As many of you are presumably aware, Anthony Rendon is the next in the line of uber-prospects, following the likes of Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. The Rice third baseman has a fantastic swing, and his statistical dominance lead me to name my college projection system in his honor (RENDON). Unfortunately Rendon broke his ankle during trials for Team USA.
Rendon did undergo successful surgery on July 26th. One of the attending surgeons, Dr. Tom Clanton offered good news.
"The operation went better than expected since the fracture pattern and ligament injuries were less severe than they originally appeared. We expect Anthony to make a full recovery and be playing baseball for Rice next Spring."
I can't remember another presumed number one pick coming off of a similarly serious injury. The young man who had virtually nothing to prove in terms of on-the-field skills will have to prove himself healthy for any team to risk a number one pick, and upwards of $10 million dollars. Complicating matters is the fact that the injury Rendon suffered was actually the second to the same ankle. Rendon's freshman season ended when he rolled his ankle going after a foul ball in the 2009 Super Regionals and tore two tendons.
One of the most interesting prospects this summer is University of Connecticut centerfielder George Springer. After posting an outstanding .337/.491/.658 line for the Huskies this past spring, Springer put up a strong .288/.456/.500 for Wareham in the Cape. Adding in a .302/.357/.460 line with Team USA. Unlike some high-level college performers, Springer actually has outstanding athletic tools as well. A well-above-average runner, Springer was 33-for-35 stealing bases this spring and has solid range defensively. Springer has the arm strength to shift to right field, and his best tool is his power. Springer tries to hit the ball 600 feet with every swing; good things generally happen whenever he hits the ball. However, Springer swings and misses. A lot. Springer struck out over 22% of his plate appearances last spring. Combining a long stride toward the ball with a violent, aggressive swing, Springer may always have trouble with strikeouts. But he has just about everything else you'd want in a prospect: performance, tools, defensive value, and patience.
Springer's teammate on the Wareham Gateman of the Cape, Team USA and University of Connecticut, pitcher Matt Barnes has also showed very well this summer. After striking out just 21.8% of batters faced for the Huskies, Barnes K'ed 25.3% in the Cape and 37.7% for Team USA. The 6-foot-4 right-hander, features an outstanding fastball that sits 93-95 MPH with tremendous sink. While his curveball and changeup have flashed potential, Barnes' off-speed stuff is still behind his outstanding fastball. If he shows improvement with the off-speed stuff, as some scouts believe he will, he could be one of the first college arms taken next June.
Not all of the summer's big stories involve the 2011 draft crop. Anthony Ranaudo, the 37th overall selection by the Red Sox, surprised many when he announced his intentions to play in the Cape. Ranaudo battled through and arm injury and rocky performance during the college season, which hurt his draft stock. In the Cape, Ranaudo appeared healthy, posting five sterling starts for the Brewster White Caps. Ranaudo performed more like the pitcher that many thought, at one point, would go in the top 10 of the 2010 draft. How much of that top 10 money Ranaudo will receive is still to be determined, but if he is fully healthy he could be a steal for the Red Sox.
Perhaps the best performance this summer belongs to Vanderbilt righty Sonny Gray (pictured above). Spending his summer with Team USA, Gray stood tall in a very deep group of hurlers for the Collegiate National Team. Through just 17 innings so far, Gray has yet to allow a run, or an extra base hit for that matter. He has struck out 31 of the 58 batters he's faced (53.4%) while walking two. Gray gets knocked some for his size - he's listed at 6-feet tall, which seems rather generous - but has a mid-90's fastball and devastating curveball to go along with a usable changeup. Gray generates a lot of power from a small frame, and the effort in his delivery is obvious. Effort in a delivery is not necessarily a bad thing, as long as it's controlled. Gray's motion is fairly efficient, save for his late hand break. Gray removes the ball from his glove a little late in his delivery which causes a timing problem. However, Gray's raw stuff as well as his production match up with anyone in the 2011 draft class. His upside is as a true ace, with a reasonable downside of a high-leverage reliever.
Unlike the past few years, you won't hear people complaining about the lack of talent in the 2011 MLB draft. Alex Dickerson's summer has kept him right in the middle of a thick pack of talented college bats. After a .419/.472/.805 spring for the Indiana Hoosiers, Dickerson went 17-for-34 (.500 Avg for our non-math majors) for Wareham in the Cape before being whisked away to Team USA. While Dickerson has struggled a little with the National Team (.250/.349/.389), he still has as much offensive upside as any player in his draft class, outside of a healthy Rendon. While Dickerson may be limited to left field or first base defensively, he combines plus-plus power with outstanding natural hitting ability and strong contact abilities. Dickerson only struck out 13.1% of the time this spring, a truly amazing number for a power hitter.
There's a ton of action going on all-across the country and internationally, too (the National Collegiate Team is currently in Japan). Rather than turn this into a 5,000 word column, I'll stick with regular updates and be back next week with more of the latest summer baseball goings-on. Until then, keep your internet machines tuned to our forums.
Email Lincoln at LHamilton@projectprospect.com and follow him on Twitter @LHamiltonPP.