2010 Digital Prospect Guide Top 100 Write-ups

Editor's Note: As we begin to write the 2011 Digital Prospect Guide, which we plan on releasing no later than January of 2011, we decided to release 100 scouting reports from our 2010 Digital Prospect Guide to the public.

 

Digital Prospect Guide Player Analysis

Top 100 Prospects

Dustin Ackley

He’ll be tried at 2B, but he expects to ultimately play LF or CF

Over 86 AFL PA: 14.1% BB, 22.4% K, .315/.412/.425 line

Ackley’s nickname at UNC was Roy Hobbs

He was a SS/3B at North Forsyth High School (NC)

 

An outstanding athlete with a thin, wiry frame and terrific eye at the plate, Ackley’s fresh off one of the greatest hitting careers in NCAA history. UNC head coach Mike Fox called him the best player he’s ever coached – better than Brian Roberts, Chris Iannetta, Andrew Miller, Daniel Bard, Walt Weiss and B.J. Surhoff. Ackley is able to consistently rocket line drives all over the field due to his outstanding bat control and smooth swing. And while he was primarily a gap hitter during his first two college seasons, he quieted his power doubters by hitting 22 home runs and finishing the 2009 NCAA season second in the ACC in slugging (.763).

Still, Ackley isn’t a guy who’s going to put up high home run totals. He doesn’t try to loft the ball out of the park. “If hitting line drives is the worst thing I do, I guess I’ll have to take that,” he told us at the AFL. Ackley walked 133 times while only striking out 82 over 999 NCAA plate appearances. He was largely limited to playing first base in college due to a lingering elbow injury – which he had repaired (Tommy John surgery) prior to 2009. But he likely would have been North Carolina’s center fielder if his arm, which he injured by pitching too much in high school, was healthy. He did spend some time in center during his junior season.

Ackley said he expects to be tried at left field, center and second base going forward in pro ball. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll stick at second. He told us he thinks he’ll end up in the outfield but is willing to give second a shot. He could be a solid center field defender or good defender in left. Ackley’s arm is average at best. An above-average runner, he reads the ball off the bat well and takes efficient routes. Ackley should advance through the minors quickly. He’s a relatively safe bet to turn into an average or better MLB hitter. Pair his polished bat with defense that should be above-average and you have a guy with a pretty high ceiling and very high floor.

 

Yonder Alonso

Broke his hamate bone on Thursday, June 18th last year

Was 3.10 deviations above the FSL average in LD%

Over 106 AFL PA: 11.3% BB, 14.2% K, .267/.353/.395 line

Born in Havana, Cuba; moved to the US at the age of 9

 

Alonso is going to have an extended career in the big leagues. An outstanding line-drive hitter, he has above-average patience and an elite contact bat. Alonso went from a .373 wOBA bat his freshman year at Miami to .506 as a sophomore and .533 as a junior. He’s a very balanced hitter who’s always willing to work the count. He also has a polished opposite-field approach.

As he recovers from his broken hamate bone and becomes acclimated to pro pitching, we’ll get a better idea of how much power he really has. He could have a significant power breakout in 2010. Note that Alonso did alter his swing mechanics upon return from his broken hamate bone. But he may be a better hitter because of the alterations once he’s back to full strength. Because of his high fly-ball rates (38.20% in AA), he’s going to create a lot of outs – unless he hits the ball out of the park regularly or peppers outfield walls.

Alonso looks to have gained 20-30 pounds since his sophomore season in college, but his listed weight hasn’t been altered for three years. He also may be a little older than his listed age. He’s already limited to first base. While he’s fairly agile and perhaps an average defender now, Alonso may continue to get bigger, limiting his range and agility. A professional hitter in every sense of the word, Alonso is one of the safest bets in the minors to turn into a valuable MLB bat. He could surface as a less powerful version of Adrian Gonzalez.

 

Pedro Alvarez

Registered a reported 8% line drive rate in A+ then 21% in AA

Had a 30.6% strikeout rate over 62 PA in the 2009 World Cup

Has just 3 stolen base attempts in 141 professional games

Was the only player to start all 15 US games in the World Cup

 

Alvarez exploded onto the college scene with a .473 wOBA his freshman year at Vanderbilt. And while a broken hamate bone limited him as a junior, he’d already established himself as one of the top amateur hitters in the world. Alvarez has well-above-average bat speed. He also generates a lot of torque with his lower half, enabling him to produce elite power. The New York native has a good eye but we saw him struggle against pitchers with multiple advanced offerings in the World Cup.

Largely a balanced hitter, he can be prone to shifting his weight early due to his front-foot hitting approach. It can take a player over a year to return to full strength after having his hamate bone removed. While part of discrepancy in his line-drive rate from High-A to Double-A could be human error, it’s also possible that he was hitting the ball harder in Double-A. Besides some trouble with tendinitis in his right knee that kept him out for less than a week, he had a healthy first full season. Alvarez’ below-average contact skills get a lot of attention – he has a small loop in his hand path – but his biggest weakness could be lack of defensive value.

Though he spent the majority of 2009 at third base and he has soft hands and a good arm, his big body (thick lower half) will likely force him to move to first. He’s gained about 25 pounds since his senior year in high school and he was a little soft/chunky as a high school junior. As his metabolism slows, Alvarez may be a guy who loses speed and agility. He’s already a below-average runner. Still, Alvarez’ combination of power and patience should allow him to have an extended career. He could turn into one of the game’s top power hitters. 

 

Jake Arrieta

He’s more of a thrower than a pitcher and he lacks deception

Relies on his good stuff more than command

Throws a straight 91-93 FB, good SL, OK change and loopy CB

Was a 31st rounder out of HS,26th out of JuCo and 5th out of TCU

 

Arrieta has been on the prospect map for a long time. He generated first-round buzz after his first year with the TCU, with his fastball touching 95-96 mph. He then dropped to the 5th round of the 2007 Draft, where the Orioles signed him for well-above-slot money after a mildly disappointing final season at TCU. Arrieta's command has always been below-average, but his stuff is solid. His fastball sits 91-93 mph and there's more in the tank when he really needs it. His slider has sharp, downward break and is an above-average pitch. Arrieta's changeup has improved over the past couple of seasons and is now an average offering, effective against both right and lefthanded hitters. He also has a curveball, but rarely uses it, as the break of his slider is very similar. 

The Orioles deserve credit for making Arrieta's mechanics more efficient. In the latter part of his collegiate career, he stopped generating much force with his lower half. In pro ball, his stride has been lengthened and his hip rotation increased. He now keeps his weight back nicely and explodes towards the plate. His arm action is fairly short and simple. He gets the ball into the driveline a little late, but he shows good torso flexion, taking some of the stress off his pitching arm.

Arrieta has had success in the high minors, proven to be reasonably durable, boasts big league stuff and is near MLB-ready. His poor command holds him back. We’re not in love with the arm action, but we don't see him as more of an injury risk than the average pitcher. He has a good chance to have a solid MLB career, potentially a good No. 3 starter, with a little more upside if his command improves.

 

Alex Avila

Spent just 151 games in the minors before his MLB debut

His father, Al, is the Assistant GM of the Tigers

Erie is a hitter’s park, though it may not look that way in his splits

Note that his home BABIP was .288 in Erie and road was .336

 

A balanced hitter with a short stroke, Avila has solid pull-side power and has posted strong walk rates from college on. His swing plane and natural momentum are geared toward working from the left center gap to the right field foul line. He lets the ball get deep and his efficient swing gives him a chance to fight off tough pitches. Like most catchers, he has a very good sense of the strike zone.

Due to his high fly-ball rates, Avila will make a lot of outs. This will be somewhat negated by his high walk rate, but don’t expect his on-base percentage to top .400. Avila moved to catcher during his junior season at Alabama and is still learning the nuances of the game. He’s already pretty sound behind the plate. While Avila doesn’t do anything above-average on defense – we haven’t been that impress with his footwork – he doesn’t have any below-average defensive tools. He played winter ball in the Dominican Republic, where he spent time improving his footwork, quickness and blocking balls in the dirt. Avila doesn’t have a body builder’s body, but his frame and body type should age well and not be a hindrance for his ability to stay behind the plate. In time, he could become an average defensive catcher.

Getting more experience behind the plate and having Gerald Laird as a mentor should help Avila’s already improving defense. Avila’s efficient load and swing actions on top of his very good balance give him a very high floor if he can stay behind the plate. He doesn’t profile as a superstar, but he should be a strong doubles hitter who posts good walk rates and can put a charge into mistakes on the inner half.

 

Josh Bell

20% Eastern League line-drive rate was the highest of his career

.566 OPS from right side in Southern League; 1.025 from the left

Over 105 AFL PA: 9.5% BB, 17.1% K, .319/.388/.516 line

He’s covered in tattoos – left arm: Biblical; right: Asian theme

 

A patient hitter with power, Bell has found success at the plate at every one of his minor league stops. He has exceptional baseball instincts and a big-league approach at the plate. The Florida native excels at working his way into good hitter’s counts and then making pitchers pay. Though his bat isn’t flawless, Bell’s a polished product. His swing is a little long. And his slightly inefficient load, early front-side weight shift and somewhat stiff actions may prevent him from being an average contact hitter.

Bell had a good balance of line drives, fly balls and grounders in Chattanooga – too many FB lead to a low OBP; too many GB limit power output. He appears to have hit with a more aggressive approach in Bowie than Chattanooga, as he raised his power numbers while walking less and striking out more. Bell has completely reshaped his body over the last two years. Following knee surgery in 2007, he entered 2008 about 30 pounds lighter than the previous year (down from appx. 245 to 215). He was a bit chunky at 245. But the 225-pound version of Bell that we saw at the AFL (2009) was lean and chiseled.

His defense undoubtedly improved as a result of his weight loss. Now an average runner, he charges balls well and has good lateral mobility. Factor in his soft hands and strong arm and you have a potential above-average defender. Some critics discount Bell’s success because the Dodgers traded him (along with Steve Johnson) for reliever George Sherrill last year. But Bell could make Los Angeles regret that deal. He’s a strong athlete with good bat speed from both sides of the plate. Expect him to arrive in the majors in 2010. If he continues to progress, Bell could surface as an above-average regular.

 

Michael Brantley

Acquired as a Player To Be Named Later from in CC Sabathia trade

1.05 deviations above the average INT BB%; 1.56 below avg K%

Started 32 games at first base in the Brewer’s organization

Son of former big leaguer Mickey Brantley (Mariners)

 

Michael Brantley has a short and simple lefthanded stroke that offers very good line drive and contact rates, but gives very little in terms of pop or lift. He does a good job of staying square to home plate and has a flat swing plane which helps him make frequent contact and hit the ball to all fields. Brantley walked more than he struck out at every stop in his minor league career, and is a base stealing threat, as evidenced by 46 steals in Triple-A Columbus and last season – 90.2% success rate.

Brantley’s role in an offense is to be an extender rather than a leader, and with his patience and contact rates, he should offer value as a guy who will stay within himself and move the ball around the field. He gets his front foot down early and does a decent job of staying tall over his rear leg, which helps him let the ball travel before he sprays it to the big parts of the field. He lacks the explosiveness and lift to provide big time pop, but as a contact and speed player he won’t be relied upon to provide big power numbers in order to be an asset. With his speed, he should be able to play a decent center field. He’s also started 20 or more games in left field in each of the last three seasons.

Brantley’s swing is very similar to Alex Cora’s, which bodes well for his chances to stick at the Major League level. Though his lack of power does not profile well for a corner outfield spot, he has the contact skills and speed to make up for some of that. Brantley has the solid floor of a fourth outfielder or the ceiling of a table setter who will extend innings and get himself in positions to be driven home.

 

Zach Britton

Had the 2nd-highest GB% in the minors last year (min. 90 IP)

Went over 47 innings without allowing a HR for a stretch of ’09

Told The Washington Times he models his approach after Glavine

Comitted to Texas A&M before signing with the Orioles

 

          Britton may have the best sinker in the minors. He’s posted ground-ball rates over 65% in each of his last three seasons. What’s more, his strikeout rate has steadily risen from level to level as well. Britton’s sinking two-fastball sits around 92-93 MPH and can touch 96 with his four-seamer. He complements his above-average sinker with a changeup that could be above-average and a hard slider that also shows above-average potential. Britton told rightoffrussell.com that the development of his changeup played a major role in his 2009 success.

            “Coming into [2009], I really just had a sinking fastball and a slider and I really tried to develop a good changeup [entering 2009]. And that’s probably the biggest reason why I’m having the success I am right now. It’s such a touch-and-feel pitch. Some guys can grasp the concept of a changeup better earlier and some guys it takes a little longer. I’m kind of in between. It hasn’t come quickly but it’s not taking forever. I’ve shown flashes of having a good changeup.”

            After opening 2009 with two-months of below-average walk rates – likely a product of him emphasizing his changeup – Britton displayed excellent command over the second half of the season. We wouldn’t be surprised if he posts a career-best walk rate in 2010. He gets the ball in the driveline early and we don’t see any mechanical red flags with him.

            Britton has made outstanding progress over the last two seasons, evolving from a two-pitch pitcher to a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. He gets his body into his pitches and explodes. After totaling 147.1 innings pitched in 2008, he finished 2009 with 140.0. If his stuff can continue to evolve and he can prove durable enough to handle a starter’s workload, Britton could enter 2011 as a consensus top five pitching prospect.

           

Domonic Brown

72.7% success rate through 99 regular season SB attempts

His K-rate rose by 3.1% from A to A+ and 5.7% from A+ to AA

Over 134 AFL PA: 7.5% BB, 20.1% K, .229/.290/.390 line

A broken finger (right hand) kept him out from 6/8/09 to 7/16/09

 

Tall with a wiry build, Brown has excellent bat speed. If you love quick-twitch athletes who can hit for power, run and throw rockets, Brown is your guy. If you like polished prospects who should transition to the bigs smoothly, look elsewhere. Brown has raw actions at the plate and swings like his don’t tend to work well in the bigs. He pulls his hands back into an awkward position when he loads. This puts him in a good position to uncoil through the ball, but not to make contact. Hitting from a crouched stance, he stays balanced by taking a small stride and swaying back on his rear leg. He then yanks with his front side to generate power. It’s a long swing.

Maybe he’s coordinated enough to pull off these inefficient actions, but expect some struggles. We timed Brown at 4.0 seconds from home to first twice at the AFL (70 speed). Though the Georgia native covers a lot of ground in the outfield, he does not judge balls well – that’s why he plays RF instead of CF. He has well-above-average arm strength and many scouts saw him as a pitcher in high school. “Coming out of high school, I thought I was going to be a pitcher. But I like to hit more, so it worked out in my advantage,” Brown told us at the AFL. His arm is not very accurate, though. Overall, he’s no more than an average defender.

Brown is definitely talented, but he’s been a little overhyped. He isn’t a bad bet to turn into an average big leaguer. But he’s not the next Darryl Strawberry and it’s unlikely that he’ll surface as an above-average big leaguer.

 

Madison Bumgarner

Youngest pitcher to make a start for SF in the last 50 years

Didn’t start throwing a breaking ball until his jr. year in high school

AA K-rate: 28.2% in May, 15.2% in Jun., 14.4% in Jul., 13.6% in Aug.

0 swing-throughs w/ SL in MLB debut; 4 in final MLB outing of ‘09

 

A big, strong lefty with excellent command of a low-90s fastball, Bumgarner reached the majors in his second full season. The ball explodes out of his hand. And his low-3/4 arm slot helps him create deception (he reaches back, slings the ball behind him, then whips his arm across his body). Because his fastball has so much life, he can have success with it even when hitters know it’s coming.

Bumgarner’s slider and changeup have made little progress over the last two years. Both flash potential but are currently below-average offerings. His strikeout rate dropped by over 6% from Low-A to High-A then again in Double-A. Unless he can improve his secondary, he may not miss many bats in the bigs. There’s been talk about Bumgarner’s losing velocity last season. His fastball sat in the low-90s when we saw him in high school (touched 94). It sat in the low-90s (touched 94) last in April; ranged from the high-80s to low-90s in May (touched 94). Then it was 87-90 during his short stint in the bigs (touched 92). Reports that his fastball has sat in the mid-90s at any stage of his career are inconsistent with what we’ve seen.

Bumgarner is very competitive. He gets fired up and elevates his game in difficult situations – K’d Manny Ramirez on three pitches in Spring Training. The North Carolina native tried a variety of slider and changeup grips during his time in Double-A. Though his arm action and angle create deception, he doesn’t hide the ball well when he initially pulls it from his glove then slings it behind his back. An elite athlete who can also swing it, Bumgarner’s a solid bet to turn into a No. 3 starter. If his secondary advances, he could surface as a No. 2.

 

Carlos Carrasco

140 or more IP in each of the last four seasons – 179.1 in ’09

Controls each of his offerings but his command comes and goes

Since ’06: 22.1% MiLB K and 9.2% BB (2556 TBF)

Could improve velo & put less stress on shoulder by limiting recoil

 

Carrasco has been a big name in the prospect scene dating back to his 2006 breakout. While he has made progress with his command over the last three years, his ground-ball rates have gone from solid to below-average and his home run rates haven’t improved. Carrasco has a 91-94 MPH four-seam fastball that lacks movement, though his low-90s two-seamer has some sink and arm-side run. His 84-86 MPH changeup is a plus pitch – late sink and gets a lot of grounders. Carrasco has inconsistent command of a 75-78 MPH curveball that flashes above-average potential due to its tight, late movement. He rarely threw his 83-88 MPH slider in his pro debut but it shows promise.

Largely a fastball/changeup pitcher, Carrasco tends to elevate his fastball too much. He also leave it over the plate regularly, which is where the high home-run rates come from. Though he’ll tease onlookers with occasional brilliant outings, his command is generally sloppy and he struggles to maintain his composure. His lacks confidence in his breaking balls. We don’t see any major mechanical issues with Carrasco, though his arm recoil, which allows him to finish in a good fielding position, is something to keep an eye on.

We remain drawn into Carrasco’s abilities. He has the potential for three average or above offerings if he can continue to improve his command. His upside is No. 2 starter but he may be more of a 3-4 who can eat innings.

 

Chris Carter

Traded by Chicago for Carlos Quentin prior to Haren deal

Was 0.75 deviations above Texas League average K%

9.70% HR/air was 4th-best in the Texas League (min. 400 PA)

Struck out in 35.5% of his 76 Mexican Winter League PA

 

Power bats like Carter’s are rare. He’s overpowered minor league pitching for four years, with hardly a hiccup along the way. Carter lasted until the 15th round of the 2005 Draft for two reasons: 1) teams viewed him as an average regular at best and 2) most scouts thought of him as a lazy player who didn’t warrant more than a draft-and-follow. Now that he’s displayed patience and plus-plus power in the upper minors, it’s safe to assume that he’d go much higher.

Tall and lean with some speed, Carter has already been a part of three organizations (White Sox, D’backs and A’s). He was traded from Arizona to Oakland before he played a game for the Diamondbacks – part of the Dan Haren deal. Carter’s biggest weakness is making contact. He shifts to his front side early and lunges at pitches, which puts him at a huge disadvantage against pitchers who know how to change speeds and locate. He’ll also chase pitches outside of the zone and guess a lot. Count on Carter striking out 150 times or more a season. He’s a mistake hitter. Command pitchers and guys with good breaking balls can shut him down. What’s more, Carter will likely be limited to first base and designated hitting duties, despite his speed. He has below-average first-step quickness – solid speed once he gets going, though – clunky hands and poor footwork.

Carter isn’t lazy. He’s a hard worker and good teammate. But he’s going to frustrate fans by looking red-hot against some pitchers and ice-cold against others. He should have a solid career as a big-league hitter and may be above-average at the plate. When you dissect his entire game, he doesn’t come out as a good bet to be more than an average regular. Still, he’s established a solid offensive floor.

 

Jason Castro

7.20% HR/air in Lancaster (A+), 2.40% HR/air in Corpus Christi (AA)

Only caught for one full season at Stanford (his junior year)

Over 51 AFL PA: 11.8% BB, 21.6% K, .143/.260/.214 line

Started 7 games for’09 World Cup games (went 3-for-23)

 

Castro jumped onto the prospect seen in the 2007 Cape Cod League when he finished second in batting average (behind Connor Gillaspie) while splitting catching duties with Buster Posey. Castro's summer emergence came as a surprise since his sophomore season at Stanford had been injury-riddled (made only 3 starts at catcher) and largely unproductive (.285 wOBA*). However, Castro carried over his summer performance to the next spring and put himself on the map as a possible first round pick, boosting his wOBA* to .505, while showing the arm strength and actions behind the plate to be a good defensive catcher. Castro has a simple, line-drive swing. He keeps his weight back nicely and has adequate bat speed, but his swing doesn't produce much loft and, as a result, his power ceiling is limited.

Defensively, Castro has a similar solid-average toolset. His arm strength and throwing accuracy are solid. He receives the ball smoothly and, as you might expect from a Stanford product, draws good reviews for his intelligence. He also has good footwork and a quick release. While his contact rate has improved at each full-season minor league stop, his walk rate has declined at every level. His power output dropped drastically (.208 to .092 IsoP) in his move from High-A Lancaster to Double-A. Castro’s Double-A numbers are a better barometer for what kind of MLB production to expect from him – Lancaster is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minors. Castro may not have much of a ceiling, but he projects as a solid across the board big leaguer with the potential to be an above-average catcher. 

 

Starlin Castro

K’d in just 10.9% of his 615 PA last year (A+/AA/AFL combined)

Over 106 AFL PA: 2.8% BB, 13.1% K, .376/.396/.475 line

1.30 deviations above the average Southern League hitter in GB%

Youngest hitter in AA to top 100 PA in 2009 – by over six months

 

Fresh off one the most impressive 2009 full-season debuts of any hitting prospect, Castro has demonstrated outstanding contact skills. He has great aggression in his swing and makes solid contact due to very good barrel awareness. Castro’s flat, line-drive stroke – short, quick and easy – could make him an elite doubles hitter. He utilizes a slight front-side coil with his front knee to stay balanced on his real leg and drive the ball to all fields. As he fills out, he should continue to add power and could surface as an average power hitter.

Castro has a slight hitch and could struggle with hard fastballs up in the zone. The hitch does not, however, cause too big of a timing problem and it does help him generate above average bat speed. Smooth and easy on defense, Castro is a confident glove man with soft hands. We timed him as a slightly below-average runner at the AFL. He’s only been successful in 71.8% of his full-season stolen base attempts. While there are some talented defensive shortstops who are below-average runners – and his low SB% could be attributed more toward inexperience than lack of speed – these players need to be extremely instinctive. After watching Castro for about a week at the AFL, we see him as someone who could slow down more as he matures. He may not be someone who will stay lean throughout his career. Don’t assume he’s a lock to stick at shortstop. He could eventually move to third base.

It’s hard to debate Castro’s success at the plate. He’s a pretty good bet to reach the big leagues. And while he could turn into an above-average big-leaguer, he could also end up only being a replacement-level talent if he can’t stick at short and his power doesn’t develop. We suggest tempering your expectations accordingly.

 

Jhoulys Chacin

Ranked 4th in Texas League in GB% (min. 400 TBF)

Mechanics are slightly different from the stretch (more hesitation)

Pronounced (YO-lease Sha-SEEN)

From the same Venezuelan town as Hall of Famer Luis Aparicio

 

A three-pitch pitcher who primarily works off a sinking fastball and plus changeup, Chacin has a high floor. His fastball sits at 89-92 MPH but plays up due to terrific boring action and late arm-side run. His changeup averaged 83.7 MPH with late tumble and fade that make it a likely plus pitch. Chacin’s curveball flashes plus break, but he doesn’t command it as well as his primary offerings. Uncommon for a young pitcher with his kind of movement, Chacin has advanced control. He also draws high marks for his poise and maturity.

Mechanically, it’s easy to see why Chacin is one of the minor’s premier ground-ball artists. He takes the ball out of his glove and then up, not down as many pitchers do. His arm action is very long in back, but a slight hesitation at the top of his leg kick gives his arm extra time to get into the drive line. During this brief hesitation, Chacin gets his weight on his back leg and then explodes. He comes from a high 3/4 arm angle that allows him to get on top of the ball and impart sink. He pronates hard through his release – adding arm-side run to his FB and reducing stress on his elbow.

Chacin’s plus athleticism should make him an asset defensively. The length of his arm action gives us some pause, but he does many things well mechanically. Assuming his curveball becomes a reliable offering, which seems likely, Chacin could surface as a No. 2 starter.

 

Aroldis Chapman

Walked appx. 11.8% and K’d 24.8% in ‘09 (525 TBF; Cuban pro league)

Faced 27 battersin ’09 WBC: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 8 K, 1 wild pitch, 1 balk

The Nationals made Chapman his 2nd-highest offer ($20+ million)

Defected without telling his family; has never seen his newborn daughter

 

Ranking Aroldis Chapman is a lesson in risk tolerance. His stuff and upside are Strasburgian, yet his downside is a lefthanded Kyle Farnsworth. His fastball projects as a true 80 offering on the 20-80 scouting scale having reliably topped triple digits in World Baseball Classic competition. It sat in the upper 90's during his small sample of WBC innings, too. Chapman’s slider shows great tilt and looks the part of a true out-pitch on a good day.

Unfortunately for all of us, they aren't all good days. As often has he shows transcendent stuff, Chapman can also flash mediocre offerings. In international play, Chapman has had days where his fastball was 91-93, his slider would hang and his command was off. Mechanics are sort of a microcosm of Chapman as a prospect; raw but showing undeniable promise. His motion is a bit violent and he doesn't always repeat well. Chapman's arm action is fairly short and direct – length is only added by his nearly inhuman degree of scapular loading. His front side mechanics need to be cleaned up a bit as he tends to open his glove-side shoulder too soon and drop his glove to his waist instead of keeping it firm near his chest. Chapman shows good leg drive and outstanding hip rotation; he uses his entire body to create velocity not just the arm.

Given his participation in the Olympics and other high profile international competitions, teams are more certain about Chapman's age than many Cuban players. His time in Cuba does mean that there is much less known about his previous usage patterns and exactly how much wear and tear is on that valuable left arm.

One of the most closely followed players in the 2010 Cactus League, Chapman began getting national coverage the second he threw a pitch with a batter in the box. Todd Frazier told MLB.com, “His fastball is heavy. It’s got a lot of velocity. It makes the changeup that much better. He looked really good out there for sure.” The Reds will likely send Chapman to Double-A to begin his stateside career. He needs plenty of seasoning but he has the ceiling to be an ace of an electrifying staff in 2012 or 2013. If he doesn’t prove capable of handling a starter’s workload, he has the velocity to become a dominant lefthanded reliever.

 

Lonnie Chisenhall

His walk, strikeout and line-drive rates were all average in A+

Was a deviation above the Carolina League average FB rate

Kicked off South Carolina’s baseball team (burglary and grand larceny)

Played 3B exclusively when he was on the field in ’09; SS in ‘08

 

Chisenhall doesn’t have a typical power hitter’s swing or frame, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at his power numbers. Devoid of any large loading actions or movements, his swing is short, quick, and simple. Chisenhall has a very small stride, but unlike others who struggle to remain balanced on off-speed pitches because of their small or no stride, he resists very well with his hands, allowing him to stay back and loaded and not get out in front. He has a flat swing plane and gets the bat through the zone quickly thanks to very quick hands. His power is mostly to his pull (right) side, but as he fills out he could add more power to straightaway center.

A shortstop in high school and college, Chisenhall moved to 3rd base for the 2009 season, where his defense has garnered mixed reviews. His body type won’t move him off, but his lateral quickness and fielding ability might force a move to the outfield. Chisenhall’s swing doesn’t produce great bat speed, but it is solid. His swing plane is slightly grooved and doesn’t give him much projection to be a very high average hitter. Against lefties, he rolls over a lot of ground balls, which suggests he doesn’t hang in as long as possible.

While he did have a very good power season in 2009, Chisenhall doesn’t project to be a big home run hitter as he matures. His walk rate and plate discipline could stand to make an improvement, though he does know how to let it fly when ahead in the count. A more selective approach could put him in more hitter’s counts, where he could dictate the action more. Chisenhall has a very solid floor, and could turn out to be an above-average Major Leaguer if he can improve his walk rate and defense.

 

Hank Conger

His grandpa nicknamed him after his favorite player, Hank Aaron

Over 70 AFL PA: 12.9% BB, 15.7% K, .211/.324/.368 line

Appeared to injure his hamstring when we saw him at the AFL (11/11) 

Star of YouTube video Hank 4 pres

 

A switch hitting catcher with a solid line-drive stroke from both sides of the plate, Conger makes a lot of contact, walked a decent amount last season and has promising power. His path to the ball is direct and not long. He stays behind the ball well and can drive it to all fields. From the left side, Conger tucks his hands close to his body as he loads, giving him the ability to stay tight and short to the ball. He lets the ball get deep and makes contact deep in the zone. From the right side, he has good balance but his barrel stops after his load, which prevents him from maximizing his bat speed.

Injuries have hampered him in previous years – most significantly, a torn labrum (shoulder) and hamstring (multiple times) – and lowered his prospect stock, but Conger rehabbed and responded in a big way in 2009. He controls the strike zone well, walks almost as much as he strikes out, and his line drive stroke(s) give lead to hard hit baseballs. He’s more powerful from the left side, but handles right handed pitching just fine in the average and on base department. Once regarded as a below-average defender, Conger has put in long hours bringing up his defense to a respectable level, something that is a must to play under Mike Scioscia. His arm only looked decent when we saw him at the AFL. He was the slowest runner we saw at the 2009 AFL – tied with David Cooper and Freddie Freeman.

Conger is only entering his age-22 season, but it seems like he’s been on the radar for a decade. When healthy, he is a polished hitter who will provide plenty of doubles and walks, along with very good contact rates. If his defense can continue to improve, he should reach his floor as a slightly above-average offensive catcher. As a first baseman or designated hitter, he’d lose a ton of value, but we’re confident that his bat will get him to the big leagues.

 

 

Chase d’Arnaud

Patient hitter with good gap power

Over 95 AFL PA: 11.6% BB, 20.0% K, .296/.383/.383 line

Stole 44 bases last season, including the AFL (81.5% success)

Extreme fly-ball hitter in A+ and A, which could lead to a lot of outs

 

d’Arnaud doesn’t have the power of his brother Travis, but he’s still a fine prospect. Chase has a short and slight inside-out push swing that allows him to make a lot of line-drive contact. He did a solid job managing the strike zone during his full-season debut and was a threat on the base paths. The Pepperdine product mashes southpaws by doing an excellent job of staying on the ball and driving it to the opposite field. The video above includes him wining a battle against Craig Kimbrell by hitting an opposite-field line drive.

While his power improved last year, there still might not be much more than 10-12 home runs in a peak year once he fills out. His approach will lead to steady contact but isn’t suited to drive the ball out of the park. He pulls his hands inside – close to his body – on almost every swing, which keeps him short and quick but doesn’t produce great bat speed. If he can learn to stay direct without trying to inside-out every ball, his power and value would increase. d’Arnaud’s defense and arm at short have drawn good reviews. He’s also spent some time at second base – his glove could be an asset at either position. He’s an above-average runner with solid range.

A package of speed, defense, intelligence, and contact ability is a good way to keep yourself in the big for a while, which is d’Arnaud in a nutshell. He won’t wow you but his well-rounded game offers a solid floor of at least a utility infielder. With some more strength and refinement, he could be a very valuable player.

 

Travis d’Arnaud

Walked in 3.7% of his PA last April and 8.7% after the all-star break

BABIP was below .225 in April/May; .315+ over the rest of the season

Taught by former MLB catchers Dusty Wathan and Tim Gradoville in ’09

His brother, Chase, is an elite prospect in the Pirates’ farm system

 

Though Kyle Drabek is largely considered the top talent the Phillies received in the Roy Halladay deal, d’Arnaud could go on to have a better career than him. The best position prospect we saw in the South Atlantic League last year, d’Arnaud has a smooth, easy swing and the defensive skills to stick at catcher. He stays loaded on his rear leg, doesn’t try to do too much at the plate, and can drive the ball to the opposite field – d’Arnaud hits for power to all fields. He also extended well on pitches over the plate when we saw him.

The California native doesn’t always get into a good launch position, which can cause timing problems. A good contact hitter overall, we saw d’Arnaud struggle to drive fastballs middle-in. He should be able to better ready himself by improving his load. d’Arnaud’s 2009 walk rate was slightly below the South Atlantic League average. He’s an extreme fly-ball hitter and could be a guy who makes a lot of outs and hits for a low batting average as he progresses through the minors. Defensively, he is ahead of the curve in terms of game management skills and leadership ability. He has a strong arm, but struggled to throw runners out this past season. This is due to his arm action being a bit long in the back of his throwing motion. Quick and agile, his blocking skills are apparent, but he’ll need to continue to develop.

d'Arnaud is a prime candidate to break through in 2010 even though the Florida State League is notorious for suppressing offensive. With a quick swing, easy actions at the plate and lots of defensive potential, he may already be the best pure catching prospect in the American League East. At his peak, D'Arnaud profiles as a 2nd tier major league starter behind the dish and possibly an occasional all-star.

 

James Darnell

Was 0.59 deviations above the average Cal League hitter in FB%

Has attempted one SB every 8.9 pro games; 56.3% success rate

Played travel ball with Brett Wallace & Tyson Ross in high school

Darnell grew up playing the trumpet in the school jazz band

 

Ever since we first saw Darnell at 2009 Minor League Spring Training, we’ve been bullish about him. A talented all-around athlete, he stays behind the ball well and has excellent strike-zone judgment – a lethal combination. Darnell has a strong opposite-field hack and he does a good job shifting his weight through the ball. Though he doesn’t have as much explosive strength, he possesses a similar swing pattern to Justin Upton. A down junior season at South Carolina (.439 sophomore wOBA, .412 junior) allowed him to fall from potential first rounder to bargain second rounder. We spoke to a scout who preferred Darnell over his teammate Justin Smoak entering 2008.

Darnell will need to tighten his upper body unload and use his hands more to reach his potential. He possesses slightly-above-average speed but isn’t a good base stealer. The California native has some scouts confident that he can stick at third while others believe he’ll move to right field. He made a lot of throwing errors from third in college. The times we saw him play last year, he didn’t stand out on defense, which can be a good thing – good defenders don’t often call attention to themselves.

He may not turn into a star, but Darnell is a good bet to have a solid MLB career. As proponents of the high-floor approach to prospecting, we like Darnell a lot. And it’s not like he has a low ceiling. Darnell could turn into an annual 20 home run threat who makes a lot of contact and gets on base frequently. Look for him to make a push for a starting job in 2011.

 

Ike Davis

Very aggressive hitter with a long swing and lot of forward movement

Over 94 AFL PA: 8.5% BB, 24.5% K, .341/.391/.565 line

Attended the same Scottsdale HS as Brian Bannister and Paul Konerko

Ike is the son of former big leaguer Ron Davis

 

Davis has limitless power. He uses his big, 6-foot-5 frame to generate a fierce uppercut swing that puts a charge into the ball. The Arizona State product has very good bat speed and plus pull-side power. His hands start in a normal behind-the-ear position but he drops them considerably as he loads. This movement allows him to pull the bat up through the zone and elevate the ball.

While Davis has shown the ability to murder fastballs, he struggles with staying back on off-speed pitches. He’s patient enough to get into fastball counts, but he can get overly aggressive when he’s expecting a fastball. Sometimes he starts his swing before the pitcher even releases the ball, which leads to some ugly, off-balance swings. In combination with his long swing, this aggression, which could be an asset if he can harness it, leads to a lot of swings and misses. If Davis can shorten up his swing a little bit, he’ll swing through fewer off-speed pitches and fastballs. Though he was an elite line-drive hitter last season, Davis hits a lot of fly balls. He’s going to fly out too many times to sustain a .350+ BABIP. Don’t be surprised if he winds up being a .300 BABIP guy with a batting average closer to .275 than .300. A fluid defensive first baseman with soft hands, Davis has a plus arm – 90+ MPH fastball as a RP in college. Although he’s a decent athlete, he’s a below-average runner. 

To reach his full potential, Davis must improve against lefties – particularly breaking balls. He’s already exceeded many expectations by powering through Double-A. With another solid year, he could find himself in New York before long. It’s rare for approaches like his to work in the bigs, but his 25-30+ home run potential is too much to overlook. 

 

 

Wade Davis

Walk rate fluctuated greatly during time with Durham last year

Made his MLB debut on September 6 2009 vs. Detroit

12.6% of his MLB pitches were curveballs versus 8.6% sliders

Has been a staple in Rays’ top prospects since their Devil days

 

Davis has shown remarkable consistency in the minors. His stuff is well-above-average. His four-seam fastball sits 91-94 mph comfortably, and his 90-91 mph two-seam offering acts as a cutter with good, late movement. Davis features a power curveball which comes in at 78-80 mph with plus break and an 84-85 mph slider with tight movement. He has more confidence in the curve than his slider. His change has good tumble but the speed differential between it and his fastball isn’t good. His changeup averaged 83.1 mph (Fangraphs.com) but can come in as high as 87-88 mph (PitchF/X). The fastball and curve are both plus, with the cutter and slider solidly above-average. While his changeup is still a below-average-offering, Davis has the stuff to get hitters out multiple times threw the order.

Davis has been very durable for a minor league pitcher, throwing at least 145 innings in each of the past four years. He’s a big, strong dude with very smooth mechanics, so he ought to be durable in the future. His arm action is short and quick. Davis' scap load is smooth and easy, as he picks the ball up with a pendulum-type motion. While a reduced scap load can lead to limited velocity, Davis has outstanding hip rotation, which helps him generate his velo. His tempo is quick and his actions are very smooth for a power pitcher. 

Poor command may be the only thing holding Davis back from being a No. 2. His walk rate hasn't improved much in the upper minors, so he might just be what he is. His floor is high and his ceiling isn’t shabby. He’s a great bet to be a No. 3/2 and a workhorse.

 

Ivan De Jesus Jr.

Hit more HR in August of ’08 (5) than he did in ’06 and ’07 combined

Over 41 PWL PA: 0.0% BB, 9.8% K, .200/.200/.250 line

Made over a quarter of his ’08 starts as a second baseman

Son of Ivan De Jesus Sr., who spent 15 seasons in the big leagues

 

After suffering a fractured left tibia during Spring Training in 2009, De Jesus nearly missed the rest of the season. He was coming of an outstanding 2008 Double-A campaign. He returned last August to play four rookie ball games. He took the field again in November, this time to play 10 games in the Puerto Rico Winter League. De Jesus doesn’t have imposing size or strength, but his ground-ball swing is tailored toward his strengths. A punch hitter who sprays line drives to all fields, he keeps the ball out of the air and has very good plate discipline. On top of being a stolen base threat, he’s a very good bunter who plays small ball well.

De Jesus doesn’t have much power, but he did have a late spike in the 2008 season. He has enough wiry strength to provide solid extra-base-hit totals for an up-the-middle defender. De Jesus has drawn rave reviews for his defense in the past. He was named the Dodgers’ best defensive infielder in 2007 by Baseball America as well as the organization’s 2008 Minor League Player of the Year. Since his leg injury was a bone fracture and didn’t affect any ligaments, he shouldn’t have any ligament problems going forward, which could have hampered his speed and range. He was an average runner prior to the injury.

DeJesus simply needs to make up for lost time and prove that he was the player he showed he can be in 2008. His short and compact swing should lead to plenty of contact. And with his very good balance at the plate, he can rack up a very high walk total as well. He’s the type of player who won’t wow onlookers with his offense but should provide solid value in the big league. If he’s back to full health, De Jesus could make a push for a 2010 September call-up. His patience, contact bat and defensive value give him a high floor. If his glove’s as good as advertised, De Jesus, who’s still only 22 years old, won’t have to hit a lot to surface as a MLB regular.

 

Jaff Decker

Was 2.65 deviations above average MWL hitter in BB%

Started ‘09 on DL due to a concussion (diving for a ball in MiLB ST)

Hit a home run in his first Low-A at-bat

His first name is pronounced like Jeff or Geoff, not Jaff or Gaff

 

If Decker wasn’t built like Matt Stairs, he probably would have been a first rounder. But the Padres may have found a steal when they took him in the supplemental round. Decker drives his hips through the ball, resulting in outstanding leverage and above-average power. He’s also a remarkably patient at the plate. Standing tall in his setup, Decker has big pull power and doesn’t seem to get caught out in front very often. He was an average contact hitter in the Midwest League and may struggle to keep par with the league in strikeout-rate as he continues his way up through the minors. Decker has the handset and barrel path to drive mistakes and hit up-and-away fastballs to the opposite field.

He has the same type of aggression and rhythm at the plate that Travis Snider showed in the minors. Decker was only successful in 62.5% of his 2009 stolen base attempts. Just two of his 43 extra-base-hits were triples. Short and stocky, he’s an average runner currently but with his body type it’s hard to imagine him not slowing down as he matures. Despite his speed and above-average arm, Decker played left field almost exclusively in 2009 – made 15 appearances as a DH. He’ll likely be given some starts in right field next season. An underrated athlete, he could surprise people who question his build and surface as an average or better defender.

The Arizona native’s bat alone should get him to the big leagues. How much value he provides on defense is still up in the air. Decker may be a better all-around hitter than Jack Cust. He’ll likely open 2010 in High-A, but he could reach Double-A before year’s end. With another dominant hitting season, Decker could enter 2011 as one of the top 10 hitting prospects in the game.

 

Ian Desmond

His AAA home LD-rate was recorded at 7%; road: 24%

Over 65 DWL PA: 3.1% BB, 26.2% K, .213/.231/.328 line

Low infield FB rates will help BABIP; don’t expect him to go .370+

He told BP that becoming more care-free helped his game in ’09

 

Desmond opened a lot of eyes during his 2009 call up, where his surprising quick-twitch ability helped him put up 13 extra base hits over only 82 at-bats. Desmond has a short, flat stroke with explosiveness akin to a smaller version of Bobby Crosby. He explodes his backside late through the ball, helping his average bat speed pop through the ball more.

His swing path is flat, but he may not adjust well to pitcher’s pitches. Desmond has never been an patient hitter but has improved his walk rate as he’s gained experience. While he does have some similar explosion to Crosby, he’s not as strong and doesn’t have the same bat speed. His strong, lean frame does look to be able to fill out a little more, but he doesn’t project to hit much more than 15-20 home runs in a season. His body should allow him to stay at shortstop, where he has good quickness and a good arm. Desmond has turned into a bit of a stolen base threat, having notched 22 total steals over three levels in 2009 (81.5% success). He’s an above-average runner.

Strides in the power department were what at last helped fuel Desmond to a breakout year. He does have the ability to pull his hands inside on pitches in, and has the barrel path to do some damage on fastballs and mistakes up. If he can offer solid defense, his bat and surprising quick-twitch explosion could make him a slightly above-average player.

 

Matt Dominguez

Was 0.83 deviations above the FSL average fly ball percentage

His BABIP fell from .324 in A to .295 in A+ and .225 in AA (114 PA)

Over 52 AFL PA: 3.8% BB, 17.3% K, .188/.216/.396 line

Played high school baseball on the same team as Mike Moustakas

 

Arguably the best fielding third baseman in the minors, Dominguez has fluid movements, excellent range, and a strong arm. Offensively, he shows easy bat speed and level swing path through the strike zone. His natural pop was evident when we saw him and he has a knack for consistently putting the barrel on the baseball. He’s also improved his walk rate in each of his full-season stops.

When we discussed the young third baseman with a scout, the scout questioned Dominguez’ ability to adjust. He wondered if Dominguez’s success was more due to pure talent than acclimation to the pro game. Like most prospects, he’ll need to continue to improve and adjust in order to reach his ceiling. In game action, Dominguez struggled with breaking pitches, chasing them low and away with some regularity. He also didn’t take the bat head directly to the baseball, which caused a loop in the back of his swing and lengthened it significantly. He hit a lot of fly balls in both High-A and Double-A. Similar contact results could lead to a lot of outs as he moves up. While he’s a below-average runner, his defensive abilities play very well at third base. Some people think Dominguez has the potential to turn into one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball. His natural ability on defense is both a blessing and a curse – made an error out of sheer boredom when we saw him during a blowout in the Southern League playoffs.

This year stands to be one of consolidation for Dominguez. He should spend the entire year in Jacksonville. He showed that the league more than he could handle last year. Dominguez projects as a poor man’s Scott Rolen with average offense and plus defense.

 

Kyle Drabek

Drew praise as an amateur for his fiery competitive attitude

Pitched more innings in 2009 than ’06, ’07 and ’08 combined

Traded from the PHI to TOR as part of the Roy Halladay deal

The son of Doug Drabek, who won the NL Cy Young award in 1990

 

Last year, Drabek starting living up to the lofty expectations placed before him. His best pitch is a 78-81 MPH curveball with deep, two-plane break tilt that it approaches the break of a slider. His fastball has solid velo – sits 90-93 MPH – but doesn’t move much. Drabek has a changeup, which is important since his curveball isn't very effective against lefties, but hasn't shown great feel for it yet.

Drabek missed most of 2007 and 2008 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, likely brought on by his inefficient mechanics. The Phillies altered Drabek’s mechanics after surgery, but his delivery still has significant red flags. The Phillies lowered his leg kick, lengthened his stride and streamlined his delivery a bit – he threw across his body in high school – yet Drabek's arm action is still long. He picks the ball up late and lets his elbow get high in the back. He still has very late forearm turnover – the ball is just above shoulder height at foot plant. Drabek also leads with his toe on his stride foot. This opens his front hip too early, which decreases hip rotation and reduces the amount of force transferred to the ball. Lastly, Drabek doesn't generate much force with his lower-half, which, combined with his 1) reduced hip rotation 2) arm action and 3) subsequent timing problems means that his pitching arm is left to do the dirty work.

It’s unfair to expect him to 'replace' Roy Halladay, one of the most dominant, durable pitchers we’ll ever see. Drabek’s still young and has the upside to be a No. 3 starter, but his lack of a third pitch and dangerous mechanics may make him a better fit as a reliver.

 

Alcides Escobar

0.67 deviations better than the average PCL hitter in K%

3.4% BB in ’07 (A+/AA), 5.2% in ’08 (AA), 5.8% in ’09 (AAA/MLB)

Over 199 VWL PA: 7.0% BB, 8.5% K, .393/.440/.491 line

Attempted one stolen base every 2.73 minor league games

 

Escobar may never develop into more than an average MLB hitter, but his up-the-middle defense will make him a valuable big leaguer. With good footwork, a very strong arm and well-above-average speed, he’s already an elite defensive shortstop. Escobar does a good job staying centered over his rear leg despite having aggressive actions in his swing. He has good bat speed and has been able to hit an average amount of line drives. His flat swing plane helped him maintain above-average contact rates throughout his minor league career.

Though he swings at almost everything, he has improved his patience over the last few seasons (from 5.2% BB in AA to 6.6% in AAA). His lack of fly balls will allow more of his batted balls to turn into hits than most players. But he’s largely a slap hitter – very little lift in his swing – and he may struggle to post double-digit home run totals. He does, however, have wiry, quick-twitch strength that will allow him to pull some balls out of the park. Though he doesn’t have as much power, Escobar has some Jorge Cantu in his swing pattern.

Escobar is big-league-ready. The Brewers dealt J.J. Hardy, who was their starting shortstop from 2005-2009, to clear a starting job for Escobar in 2010. He responded to their confidence in him by stringing together 199 successful plate appearances in the Venezuelan Winter League. Escobar’s elite defense gives him a very high floor. He could be an average regular in his first full MLB season. If he can find a way to make fewer outs and increase his power, he could become a well-above-average big leaguer.

 

Danny Espinosa

Doesn’t profile as a HR hitter, despite having two 7-HR months in ’09

Over 107 AFL PA: 14.0% BB, 18.7% K, .345/.434/.460 line

Skipped Low-A to open his full-season career in High-A

Put up an .862 OPS as a junior in college after .934 as a sophomore

 

If you didn’t know any better, you could assume that Long Beach State University is one part school and one part shortstop factory. First came Bobby Crosby then Troy Tulowitzki and now Danny Espinosa – Evan Longoria even played some short. Espinosa has decent bat speed from the right side and above-average from the left side, which is his power side. He surprised a lot of people with his 2009 season, notching 18 home runs at High-A, stealing 29 bases and walking regularly.

Espinosa’s still learning what kind of hitter he is. He has aggressive forward movements from the left side and swings with the big muscles of his upper body, which slows his swing down. With his lack of lower body involvement, he isn’t as controlled as he could be. From the right side, he drifts forward and doesn’t gather himself over his rear leg. This helps explain his high ground-ball rate against lefthanded pitchers, as he goes and gets the ball instead of letting it come to him. Espinosa has an outstanding arm, good hands and quick feet. While he’s a slightly above-average runner at best, he should be a solid defensive shortstop.

Espinosa fell in the draft because of a poor junior year but now looks like a possible 3rd round steal. His left swing can be tied up inside because of his long stride and upper-body driven swing. But some players have upper body swings in the minors then figure it out. Espinosa could gain strength and use less of his big muscles to power the ball – resulting in fewer strikeouts. If he does that, he and Ian Desmond could give the Nationals a very formidable up-the-middle combination. Espinosa’s patience and quality defense give him a solid floor. He’s a good ball player who makes everything look easy, just don’t expect him to be a big power guy.

 

Neftali Feliz

Ranked 3rd in the majors in K% last season (min. 100 TBF)

Missed one early-May start last season due to shoulder soreness

Worked 2 perfect innings in his August 3, 2009 MLB debut

Growing up in the Dominican Republic, he idolized Pedro Martinez

 

Blessed with nasty, nasty stuff, Feliz lights up the radar gun and leaves hitters flailing meekly at his off-speed pitches. The ball explodes out of his hand. He compliments his 93-96 MPH fastball (has touched 101.1) with a hard, split-finger changeup (86-90) and a hammer curve (77-80) with late, two-plane, 1-to-7 break. Feliz relies heavily on his fastball –  threw it 70% of the time in the majors last year – but his plus curveball may be his best strikeout pitch. Traded from the Braves to the Rangers in the Mark Teixeira deal, Feliz vaulted to elite prospect status after striking out 32.7% of the 324 Low-A batters he faced in 2008, his age-19 season.

He uses the rotation of his hips very well to generate force, maintains ideal balance and flexes his torso forward at the same time he begins to rotate his shoulders, which translates into serious velo. Though he looks like he’s playing catch on the mound, his mechanics aren’t as “free and easy” as people think. Feliz’s pitching arm isn’t quite vertical at foot-plant – when his shoulders start to turn. He has a slight stabbing motion in the back of his arm action, as he points the ball back and down before bringing it up to drive-line height. He comes from a low-3/4 arm angle, which can be linked with elbow problems. But he pronates well, which alleviates the elbow concerns.

The Rangers are sure to limit the innings of such a valuable pitcher. Feliz will likely begin 2010 in the bullpen, a role in which he dominated last year, and then move to the rotation during the summer – he has yet to make a MLB start. Feliz has top-of-the-rotation potential.

 

Tyler Flowers

2.21 deviations above the average SOU hitter in BB%

Was primarily a 1B during his first full season of pro ball (2007)

1.04 deviations above-average in K% in SOU; 1.70 in the IL

His given name is Cole – middle name is Tyler

 

            Flowers offers above-average power for an up-the-middle defender. He can hammer the ball when he times his swing right. Batting from a slight crouch and a wide stance, he utilizes a simple pick-up and put-down leg lift, which allows his head to stay back. He had success as a line-drive hitter in Double-A and has shown outstanding patience – walk rate did drop in Triple-A, though.

            Flowers’ swing is a bit long and he doesn’t have the fastest bat in the land. He has a habit of shifting to his front leg too soon, like many young hitters. Utilizing a slight hitch to get the bat started, he has to rush to catch up to the ball at times. He doesn’t always get into his launch position in time. Since Low-A, his strikeout rate has increased at every level. By the time he reached Triple-A, he’d fallen over a deviation below the Southern League average strikeout rate. Flowers’ contact abilities are definitely something to keep an eye on. He’s made solid progress as a catcher over the last two years. Still, there aren’t many guys who are as big as he is at the position. Flowers does run like a catcher, though – he’s a below-average runner.

            If Flowers can tighten up his upper body and stay loaded on his rear hip, he could be an annual 20 home-run threat. It’s hard to ignore that kind of power coming from a potential catcher, especially one with Flowers’ patience. He could be a guy who takes a few years to adjust to big-league pitching then clicks. But he could also be someone who fails to turn into a viable regular, especially if he can’t stick at catcher.

 

Logan Forsythe

Was 2.08 deviations above the Texas League LD% average in 2009

One of four players who walked 100+ times in the minors last year

Played with a broken foot during his time with Team USA (2007)

His younger brother, Blake, is a draft prospect with Tennessee

 

A balanced hitter with a line-drive stroke, Forsythe controls plate appearances and has solid power. He employs an efficient “sit-to-load” move where he pops back and bends down before striding forward. This allows him to load his rear hip quickly and puts him in a leveraged position. He then adjusts easily with his hands. Forsythe only has solid bat speed, but his hands are quick and he rarely gets caught on his front side. He has a slight hesitation move to resist with his hands and should be able to hammer mistakes up.

Forsythe’s lack of raw power doesn’t profile well for third. A shift to second base may be in order. After his promotion to Double-A, his patience might have worked against him. Facing advanced pitching, he probably fell behind in more counts than he did in High-A. As he progresses, pitchers will get better at pounding the zone and Forsythe will have to become more aggressive. While he efficiently loads his hip, he doesn’t have an explosive unload. This affects his bat speed and power and is part of why he doesn’t get much extension.

Hitters with Forsythe’s type of patience tend to have successful careers, especially when they have positional flexibility and a solid line drive stroke. He projects to add power has he matures. Because he knows how to work the count, he should be able to learn to know when to swing for it all. If he can successfully transition to second base, he could become a well above-average offensive player.

 

 

Todd Frazier

Was 1.30 deviations above average Southern League hitter in LD%

Has received high marks from many sources for his leadership skills

High fly ball totals could lead to lots of outs if not many leave the park

His older brother Jeff played in AA/AAA for the Tigers last year

 

Frazier isn’t a guy who’s going to wow people. But he’s good at just about everything on the ball field. He has a strong approach, stays loaded on his rear hip and uses the entire field. With good balance and solid bat speed – rarely caught on his front side – Frazier makes loud contact despite movements that aren’t always smooth. He’s very good at using his hands and squaring up on the ball.

The Rutgers alum has a unique swing. He starts with his bat flat and draws his hands down and in for a load, a la Michael Young. He then plants his front foot early before turning it inward to coil his front hip. These movements delay his forward momentum and help him stay loaded. While this footwork helps keep him from lunging at pitches, it also may prevent him from reaching his power potential. Frazier is experienced at every infield position except catcher. He’s also spent some time left field. In two full seasons with the Reds, he has never spent more than half of one playing the same position. This has likely hindered his defensive development. Versatile, he could be a solid defender at several places on the field. But due to his limited defensive experience, his transition to the majors may take longer than his bats readiness may suggest. He could be a solid defender at third or in left. He’s currently no better than average at second.

Frazier he could reach the majors in early-2010. He’s a very good bet to become a big-league regular, despite the fact that his swing mechanics are Hunter Pence funky. Depending on where he winds up defensively, which is anyone’s guess right now, he could be an above-average big leaguer. Expect an elite line-drive hitter who makes a lot of contact and tallies extra-base-hits regularly.

 

Freddie Freeman

Bested Jason Heyward for Braves hitter of the year honors in ’08

1.13 deviations better than the ’09 Southern League average K%

Has very little separation and upper-body resistance

Size & contact skills are similar to Logan Morrison and Anthony Rizzo

 

Freeman’s short, quick stroke allows him to make hard contact and he’s shown above-average power. Injuries in August and November slowed him down in Double-A and the AFL, respectively. But his injury-plagued 2009 doesn’t affect his learning curve much – if any. Still, we found Freeman’s descriptions of each (left wrist and right elbow) to be a little unsettling.

Wrist: “I couldn’t drive with my top hand so I started clenching my wrist a little bit and all this [points to area between index finger and thumb] became inflamed, and I just couldn’t pick up a bat anymore so I got a couple cortisone shots and they shut me down for the rest of the year.”

Elbow: “I’ve got an injury right now [November of 2009] that every time I swing, I seem to hyperextend my elbow, and I can’t swing because if I do it, the pain is just so intense, I can’t do it.”

When we saw Freeman in Double-A, he looked antsy and hit off of his front foot, limiting his ability to drive the baseball. He didn’t put himself in a position to drive the ball when we saw him at the AFL, either. Freeman has soft hands and a strong arm, but we weren’t impressed with his range at the AFL. He should spend all of 2010 in the Southern League with the task of proving his power outage in 2009 was due to injury. Ultimately, he may not turn into more than a mistake hitter who struggles against pitchers who know how to change speeds. Freeman’s upside as a slighty-above-average regular is enough to make him an elite prospect but he still has a lot to prove.

 

 

Christian Friedrich

Has an advanced understanding of how to set up and finish hitters

GB-rate dropped from 61% in Low-A to 41% in High-A

We have one report that he lost his velo late in games last year

Personality-wise, he has a reputation for being a bit of a goof ball

 

Drafted as a polished college lefty, Friedrich has use his solid-average 89-92 MPH fastball and plus 12-6 hammer curveball to rack up strikeouts by the bushel. He compliments his arsenal with a potential average changeup that shows promise but lacks command and a slider that he added in early 2008 while at Eastern Kentucky University. His slider has a little break and functions like a cut fastball. 

Friedrich's arm action may lead to future injuries and may be keeping his stuff from being better than average. He makes the dreaded Inverted W arm action just before foot-plant, which results in extremely late forearm turnover. The ball doesn't begin to be accelerated forward until well after his front shoulder has opened. Friedrich does come almost completely over the top, which takes some strain off his pitching elbow, and hides the ball well from the hitter. What he gains in deception he loses as a health risk. Friedrich's long arm action and timing problems force his arm to take on a lot of stress. He totaled 119 regular season innings in 2009, which is a modest amount for a 22-year-old potential starting pitcher.

After a strong High-A finish in 2009, he’ll likely begin 2010 in Double-A and could finish it in the big leagues. As long as he's healthy, Friedrich is a solid bet to be a good No. 3 starter, but given his inefficient and possibly injurious mechanics, that's an important caveat.

 

Grant Green

22.3% K in his 1st 94 PA last year; 11.7% in his next 145

Drew below-average walk rates his entire career at USC

Ranked outside of the top 30 on our 2009 Draft board

He has a very aggressive hitting approach

 

Green generated a ton of buzz after a strong showing in the 2008 Cape Cod League, vaulting himself into some top five draft lists. We were a bit more conservative ranking Green due to his poor walk-to-strikeout ratios (a red flag). Green slid down some boards after starting the 2009 college season in a serious slump, but the A's may have gotten a top 10 talent with their mid-first-round pick.

At the plate, Green has strong hands and quick wrists. His stride is minimal – uses toe-tap timing mechanism. Some toe-tap hitters reduce their weight shift but Green shifts aggressively, occasionally getting on his front foot early. A solid low-ball hitter, he’ll occasionally golf one out but his power is largely doubles power. He didn't walk much in college and is only a marginal bet to post solid MLB on-base percentages. At his best, he'll spray line-drives and flash some raw power, but he needs to improve against good off-speed pitches.

Green has the tools to be a solid defender at short. He’s a well-above-average runner, bordering on plus, who displays good range. His arm is adequate. Green flashes the ability to make the spectacular play, but occasionally struggles with the routine ones. His footwork is inconsistent and he's not as sure a bet to be a good defender as a college product with his tools should be. Some scouts feel Green may have to change positions.

Prospects with the ability to play shortstop and a chance to hit tend to be very valuable. Green's physical abilities give him the upside to be an above-average regular. But he carries more risk than the usual college product. Many people who are close to him say that Green is a smart, dedicated player who takes coaching well and works hard to improve his game.

 

Reese Havens

As a 2B, impressed us with his hands and athleticism at the AFL

Over 47 AFL PA: 17.0% BB, 19.1% K, .368/.478/.658 line

Was 0.72 standard deviations below the FSL average in LD%

Played on the same college team as Justin Smoak and James Darnell

 

A balanced hitter with quiet actions, Havens is able to produce solid bat speed with minimal effort. He lets the ball come to him and doesn’t get himself out by getting onto his front side early. He showed very good power and patience for a middle infielder last year.

While he is quiet and controlled at the plate, he has a very inefficient path to the ball. He pushes his hands back and away from him, and pulls the barrel forward with his bottom hand as he brings the bat through the zone. His lead arm is straight throughout most of his swing, costing him quickness and efficiency. He weight shift could use some work, as he mostly spins on his back leg when he swings. Some people will call out Havens’ 2009 batting average on balls in play as unlucky, but he hit a lot of fly balls and not many line drives. He could be someone who hits for a low batting average due to his high fly-ball rates. Havens won’t wow you on defense at second, but he’s a solid athlete with good hands. We think he’s a good bet to remain at the position. Havens was a shortstop in college and his first full season in pro ball. He was initially rumored as a candidate for catcher, but was tired at shortstop before being shifted to second base at the Arizona Fall League.

Havens doesn’t do one thing exceptionally well, but he has the potential to be a very solid player with some refinement. His patience and power combo is very intriguing – especially at an up-the-middle position – though his swing needs some work. Learning to do less pulling with his front and more driving forward with his backside will be paramount for Havens to reach his potential as a slightly above-average regular.

 

 

Chris Heisey

Was 1.19 deviations below Southern League ’09 average K%

Over 104 AFL PA: 9.6% BB, 26.0% K, .297/.379/.593 line

Cincinnati discovered his when he attended one of its open tryouts

20+ SB in each of his three full seasons (84.3% success rate)

 

Heisey blazed up prospect charts in 2009. When we saw him at the AFL, it didn’t take us long to see that he’s legit. It’s rare for Division-III hitters turn into elite prospects, but Heisey has hitting actions that you can’t teach. He’s balanced with good barrel awareness as well as elite swing quickness and bat speed. Some people may think of him as a low-upside prospect because he emerged on the scene late and is older than most elite prospects. Don’t be one of them. Heisey has actions similar to Jose Lopez, but unlike Lopez, he can walk.

Heisey is more of a solid all around hitter than toolsey a guy with outstanding projection. He won’t blow you away with any aspect of his game but he won’t disappoint with one either. Heisey has slightly above-average pull power. His approach can get pull-oriented at times. Triple-A pitchers also found that he can be susceptible to breaking pitches on the outer half of the plate, something he’ll need to work on moving forward. He’s an above-average runner with a strong, accurate arm and good instincts in the outfield. Some people think Heisey may be able to play center field and be an average defender there. He primarily played left field in 2007, right in 2008 and center in 2009. He could be a good defensive corner outfielder with above average to plus range along with an arm that plays well in right field.

As a total package, Heisey doesn’t project to be an All-Star. But his skill set is very well rounded on both sides of the ball. He could be an average big league outfielder as soon as 2010. With a few adjustments, he could even surface as a slightly above-average regular.

 

Jeremy Hellickson

Missed 47 days with a shoulder injury last year (5/5/09-06/22/09)

Missed the first 3 weeks of the 2007 season due to a sore arm

Dealt with a fractured growth plate in the same shoulder in HS

FB% has been 42% or below in AA and AAA (35% in AA ’09)

 

A statistical case can be made that Hellickson was the most dominant pitcher in the minors last year. He posted elite walk and strikeout rates between Double-A and Triple-A. His stuff is above-average but it may not be quite ace-caliber. His fastball sits 90-93 MPH and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. His changeup has improved greatly over the past two years and now rates as a well-above-average pitch – has overtaken his breaking ball as his primary off-speed pitch. His curve is at least average and he’s shown the ability to add and subtract break from it to disrupt a hitter's timing. His numbers are great. His stuff is good. But his mechanics are awful.

Hellickson has a long arm action and opens his front hip very early, which is a very bad combination. He comes very close to an Inverted W arm action – it looks like it from some angles and not from others – and has very late forearm turnover. He doesn’t get the ball up to the driveline in time for the rest of the body to help with acceleration and leaves virtually all the work of applying force up to the pitching arm. He’s had various arm problems in the past and the Rays have actually cleaned up his mechanics quite a bit, as he used to throw way across his body. Additionally, he’s only averaged 126.0 innings a season over the last three years.

Without further mechanical alterations, Hellickson's injury history stands a good chance of being chronic. He's MLB ready now. Still, his statistical prowess cannot be underrated. Hellickson has the upside to be at least a good No. 3 starter if not a solid No. 2 but long-term durability is a major question mark.  

 

Jason Heyward

5th-youngest Southern League hitter in 2009 (min. 100 PA)

83.8% career SB success rate; one attempt every 7.70 games

ifFB% was 1.45 deviations above SOU average; 2.36 in CAR

Heyward was considered an elite prospect at the age of 14

 

Heyward is an excellent athlete with champion bat speed. Patient and comfortable hitting to the opposite field, he’s an elite contact hitter with above-average power. Last year, he made contact improvements and massive strides as a power hitter. He has a downward swing approach – hands go down, rear hip goes down, rear knee goes down – that helps him stay short to the ball, similar to Shane Victorino.

Heyward sacrifices power by pushing his hands away from his front shoulder while swinging. Though some of his hitting mechanics vary from the typical big leaguer, he has enough athleticism to pull off irregular movements. An OF/1B in high school, Heyward may struggle to maintain average foot speed over his career due to his big frame. But he has an above-average arm and could be a solid defensive right fielder through his mid-20s. During a five-month span last year, he missed time with a hip flexor injury (June), bruised heel (August) and lower back strain (October). The back injury, which led to his removal from the AFL, was initially diagnosed as a strained hamstring. It’s possible that injuries won’t plague him long-term, but there’s enough history to raise concern.

A polished hitter who could easily surface as an above-average big leaguer, Heyward has the skills to eventually blossom into one of baseball’s best all-around hitters. He’ll enter 2010 as the popular pick for top hitting prospect in baseball.

 

Aaron Hicks

Didn’t begin switch-hitting until late in his high school career

Hits a lot of fly balls – will help his power but limit batting average

Caught stealing in 8-of-10 ’09 stolen base attempts (55.6% success)

Attended the same high school as former big leaguer Sean Burroughs

 

Few minor leaguers can match Hicks' pure tools. He drew first round consideration in 2008 as a flame-throwing pitcher, reaching 96 MPH off the mound, before the Twins nabbed him. Though he needs to improve his reads, Hicks is a plus runner with a plus-plus arm. He has the potential to be a game-changing defensive player. At the plate, he is still a bit raw but has undeniable talent. He was an above-average line-drive hitter with above-average walk rates during his half season in the Midwest League last year.

A switch hitter, Hicks begins his stance slightly open and then strides closed. He has a tendency to stride a little too soon, which throws off his balance. As he strides forward, he keeps his hands back and slightly bars his arm. His load is deep, which gives him some problems handling pitches up and in. He accelerates his wrists with lightning speed and shows tremendous hip rotation, giving him plus power potential. Hicks combines exceptional physical gifts with great plate discipline. He has ideal patience and solid contact ability. While his power potential has yet to transfer into games, in-game power if often the last thing to develop for a young hitter. 

Hicks is still very young – he'll spend the entire 2010 season as a 20-year-old – and has a good deal of development still ahead. The California native opened 2009 in extended spring training before getting a chance to play full-time with Beloit in June. The Twins have taken it slow with more than a few of their prized young hitters in the past – ’06 first rounder Chris Parmelee played nearly 200 games in Low-A before he reached High-A; ’07 first rounder Ben Revere has been promoted one level a season. Hicks is likely to begin 2010 in High-A and could make his Double-A debut sometime next season, putting him on track for a 2012 MLB debut. His raw physical tools combined with his center field defense and a demonstrated ability to control the strike zone give him a very high upside. 

 

Daniel Hudson

Pitched at every full-season level in ’09 (A, A+, AA, AAA and MLB)

Threw his changeup 20.0% of the time in the bigs last year

Has trouble throwing his slider for quality strikes with the White Sox

K’d 87 batters in AA/AAA while walking only 19 (318 TBF)

 

Hudson was among the fastest risers in all of prospectdom last season. His fastball sits 92-94 MPH with movement. He also throws an 82-85 MPH changeup with good fade and an 82-86 MPH slider that shows plus break at times and can be tough on righties.

Hudson gets the ball up to drive line height early, but a little too high, as his pitching elbow is very close to shoulder height at foot plant. His elevated arm position can cause him to drift underneath the ball and leave pitches elevated – low GB% is a statistical concern with Hudson. He has a large degree of scapular loading in the back of his arm action, but he pronates very well, partially alleviating this concern. His follow-through is unbalanced.

He may have some arm problems down the road but excellent pronation limits them in the short term. Hudson’s strong strikeout rates and fastball/changeup command could make him a solid No. 3 starter. If he can induce more groundballs, he could turn into a No. 1-2.

 

Jose Iglesias

The Red Sox have praised him for his simple, fundamental swing

Over 76 AFL PA: 5.3% BB, 12.1% K, .275/.324/.420 line

The youngest player to participate in the AFL last year

Was born in Havana, Cuba; defected in 2008

 

Iglesias is one of the best defensive shortstops we’ve ever seen. His instincts and footwork are honestly on the same tier as Omar Vizquel’s – extremely high praise, we know – and his arm is better. He’s a true 80 defender at an up-the-middle position. Because he has yet to record a plate appearance in a full-season league, there are still a lot of unknowns about his bat. We got a sneak peak of the kind of hitter he is at the Arizona Fall League.

Though he’s not an imposing figure at the plate, Iglesias has a quick swing and a smooth, balanced lower half. His strong wrists generate surprisingly good bat speed. He’s also showed signs of being an above-average contact hitter. Iglesias’ swing pattern is similar to Omar Infante and Yunel Escobar’s – it’s a good sign that he has some things common with those two.

Iglesias does, however, come with some notable weaknesses at the plate. First off, he only walked in 5.3% of his Arizona Fall League plate appearances, a rate that’s very similar to the approximately 5.1% he posted in Cuba (2008). That’s over 400 plate appearances of well-below-average patience. He’s largely a low-ball hitter and he could be overpowered by hard fastballs up in the zone. We also saw him struggle with outside breaking balls at the AFL. Iglesias has some holes in his swing as well. With his glove, he may not really need to hit that much to be an average big leaguer, though. Iglesias has outstanding range, a strong arm and fly-paper hands. He’s as agile as a gymnast. Watching Iglesias play defense is a show in itself. He can dish no-look double-play feeds using his glove from behind his back…seriously, we’ve seen it.

Don’t expect Iglesias to turn into much of a power threat. And his on-base percentage may be below-average. His glove, however, is already big-league-ready. A strong case could be made that Iglesias is the best defensive shortstop in the minors right now. If his bat winds up being near MLB-average, he’ll likely be an above-average big leaguer. We’re going to give him some more time with the bat before we take too aggressive of a stance, but Iglesias could have a breakout season in 2010. Even if his bat doesn’t progress much over the next 3-5 years, his elite defense at an up-the-middle position gives him a very high floor.

 

Austin Jackson

Stole bases at a 76.6% success rate from ’05-’08; 85.7% in 2009

K rate has gone from 16.9% (A+) to 19.4% (AA) to 22.1% (AAA)

Considered a very tough sign heading into the 2005 Draft

BA named him the top 12-year-old prospect in the country in 1999

 

Jackson has the speed and athleticism to be a very exciting player. He’s an outstanding athlete who could be an above-average defensive center fielder. In terms of raw ability, he has all the talent you want in a young player. He showed signs of an all-around breakout at the plate in the second half of 2007, but his power has been limited in the upper minors. And his contact rates have taken a significant drop. A successful line-drive hitter in Triple-A, Jackson has a lot of adjustments to make before he becomes much of a MLB hitter.

He relies on talent more than mechanics and his swing has several mismatched, mistimed moving parts. Jackson gets his front foot down early, but doing so causes him to shift his weight too soon. To make up for misplaced energy, he has to push with his rear hip to get his swing started. This is an inefficient way to swing – makes it tough to catch up to high velocities. If he can learn to stay loaded on his rear hip, he could give himself more time to judge pitches and more energy to expel when he swings. He counter rotates his upper body for a load, which causes him to pull off good off-speed pitches down and away once when the laws of physics take over – equal and opposite reaction. His angles to the ball with his hands are not true and direct, and he struggles against pitchers who hit their spots and effectively mix speeds. Jackson needs several refinements before his skills catch up to his raw talent. He’s fast and nimble with a good arm. His defense in center isn’t universally praised, but he has the athleticism to be solid. He played some left field in 2009 but mostly center.

Jackson is entering his age-23 season and is still relatively raw. With experience and refinement, he’ll get better. The big question is how much progress will he make and how quickly? He can handle mistake pitches up and has turned into a decent stolen base threat. Jackson has the raw talent to be an above-average table setter who plays solid defense in center. But he’s still years away from being that player.

 

Desmond Jennings

82.2% success in his regular season SB attempts (134-of-163)

Played CF exclusively before ’09 – made 6 RF starts, 3 LF, & 7 DH

BABIP was .347+ in Low-A, AA & AAA; .299 in his 102 High-A PA

8th-youngest International League hitter in 2009 (100 PA min.)

 

Jennings uses his quick-twitch strength, excellent eye and simple, balanced load to consistently get the barrel on the ball. He loads his hands early, gathers himself over a solid rear leg, and then throws the barrel at the baseball. His short, flat stroke may not allow him to generate enough loft to produce high home run totals, but he’s an outstanding athlete with very few weaknesses in his game.

Drafted out of community college in 2006, Jennings exploded onto the prospect scene with a phenomenal full-season debut in 2007 before a knee injury (torn meniscus) ended his year prematurely. He displayed elite contact skills, plus speed and above-average patience in the South Atlantic League. Then back and shoulder injuries limited him to just 102 regular season plate appearances in 2008, and his stock took a significant hit. Jennings was healthy and successful again last season. He made a near seamless transition from Double-A to Triple-A, improving his walk and contact rates along the way.

When you factor in that he’s an up-the-middle defender, Jennings’ 2009 season has to be considered as one of the best in the minors. He has a very polished approach to hitting and could be big-league-ready in the near future. Still, it’s hard to not carry over a little concern about his 2008 back injury even though he appeared fully healthy last year. While he clearly has the speed to cover a lot of ground in center, without seeing a guy play regularly, it can be difficult to discern what kind of jumps he gets and routes he takes.

Another healthy year could put Jennings well on his way toward establishing himself as an above-average MLB center fielder. If he doesn’t win a starting job out of Spring Training, he could be knocking on the door before the All-Star break.

 

Ryan Kalish

Over 89 AFL PA: 11.2% BB, 24.7% K, .301/.384/.384 line

Brushed aside his 2007 broken hamate bone slowing him down in ’08

Did not swing and miss at a single pitch his senior year in HS

Was recruited to play Quarterback at the University of Virginia

 

The metamorphosis that Ryan Kalish has gone through since high school is astounding. Once a flawless contact hitter, he’s made a conscious effort to hit for power even if it comes at the cost of contact. “I’m not really worried about strikeouts,” he told us at the AFL. Kalish has a very short and quick lefthanded swing. High ground-ball rates limited his power in the low minors, but he got the ball in the air a lot in Double-A. Kalish is very balanced at the plate and combines very good swing quickness with solid bat speed. He’s also shown the ability draw a lot of walks. He can spray the ball to all fields and stays inside the ball very well.

Kalish has a small load and throws the barrel to make contact – he drifts forward more than he explodes through the ball. Overall, he doesn’t have a lot of lift in his swing. Instead of gathering himself and swinging aggressively, Kalish almost seems defensive at the plate at times. He can play a decent center field, but he’ll likely wind up in right or left. While he gets good reads on the ball thanks to very good instincts, he’s only an average runner. Addionally, Kalish has a very muscular frame – think fullback – and could slow down as he ages.

Kalish was unable to tally more than five home runs in a season before 2009. But he popped 18 between High-A and Double-A, which he credits to becoming more aggressive and trying to lift the ball to his pull side. He’s always been an intriguing prospect, but his newfound power has helped his stock rise. Kalish’s ceiling is slightly-above average big leaguer, but he may settle in as more of a fringe regular.

 

Casey Kelly

The Red Sox limited him to less than 100.0 innings last season

Lacked game power and chased pitched when we saw him hit at the AFL

Committed to play football (QB) for Tennessee before signing with BOS

His father, Pat, played second base for NYY, TOR and STL

 

Blessed with a fantastic feel for pitching, Kelly used an impressive three-pitch mix to dominate the South Atlantic League last season. His curveball and changeup both flash plus potential and complement his average fastball. His floor is among the highest of any pitching prospect in the minors. At a lean 6-foot-3, he should be able to add some muscle to his frame, which could lead to a couple of additional ticks on the radar gun. He looked a lot stronger at the AFL than he did early in 2009.

Kelly’s fastball sat at 86-88 MPH and topped out at 90 MPH when we saw him. We also have reports of him sitting in the low-90s – and he touched the mid-90s out of the pen at the 2009 Futures Game. Kelly’s fastball is his most hittable offering. It does, however, have some sink and he typically keeps it down in the zone. His command of the pitch is also impressive.

The Red Sox took a conservative approach with Kelly in 2009, as he was limited to 100 innings. This decision was made to in order to give him a chance to play shortstop – his preferred position – from July through the end of the AFL. Mechanically, Kelly short-arms the ball. His arm action is reminiscent of the quarterback he once was. His elite athleticism is rare for a pitcher and he’s an outstanding defender on the mound.

Kelly is a safe option over a number of high ceiling, low floor prospects in the minors. The Red Sox already showed that they’re willing to bring him along quickly by promoting him to High-A for the final two months of his first season. He could spend a good chunk of time in Double-A in 2010. With his shortstop experiment officially over, Kelly can now focus all of his attention on pitching. Look for him to make a push to join a big league rotation in late-2011. Should he reach his full potential, he could be similar to Mike Mussina, with the ability to settle in as a solid No. 2 or 3 starter for a decade or more.

 

Kellen Kulbacki

Missed time with a shoulder injury (’08 and ’09); then hamstring (’09)

His shoulder injury (torn labrum in his right shoulder) required surgery

He tries to stay patient yet smart and aggressive at the same time

Managed to put up a .1511 OPS his sophomore year in college

 

When healthy, Kulbacki has shown outstanding potential. A balanced hitter with solid bat speed, he combines patience with an aggressive approach that could yield above-average power totals. He’s also a solid contact hitter. Kulbacki drives the ball to all fields and punishes mistakes. He employs a toe-tap for timing, but it doesn’t throw his timing off. He has a good load and stays on his rear leg very well.

On top of not playing in a major college conference – the Colonial Athletic Association only had 12 players in the bigs last year – Kulbacki has just 144 plate appearances above High-A. His poor showing in short-season ball three years ago cancels out his dominant stint in the California League for some. While he didn’t do much damage in Double-A, his .243 BABIP was likely a product of injury. We don’t see any major weaknesses in Kulbacki ‘s bat. It’s just difficult to know what type of hitter he is at this point.

Kulbacki doesn’t have a prototypical “pro body” and has only garnered so-so reviews on defense. He may wind up as a passable outfielder, though a nasty hamstring injury last year – he tore the muscle off from the bone – has led to doubts on his ability to handle the outfield field altogether. He’s been a below-average runner in pro ball and may even become a base-clogger. His future could be at first.

Kulbacki needs to prove that he’s over his injuries. If he does that, he could break out. Remember, shoulder injuries can derail a hitter for a season and sometimes even longer. Kulbacki could ultimately be a very solid player if he can play right field. He’s turned into a sleeper with some upside.

 

Brett Lawrie

1.16 deviations above average ’09 Midwest League hitter in HR/air

Complained about back pain when we saw him in ’09 MiLB ST

Largely considered a C in HS; quickly switched to 2B in pro ball

6th-youngest Midwest League batter in 2009 (min. 300 PA)

 

            Lawrie explodes through the ball with a quick, powerful swing. He has very good bat speed and a leveraged set up that keeps him balanced. Hitting from a crouched, open stance, Lawrie is a patient hitter. His aggressive loading pattern allows him to whip the bat through the zone. A relatively polished all-around hitter, he doesn’t chase many pitches and does a good job making contact.

            A result of his deep crouch, Lawrie’s swing is very upper-body driven. When we saw him last spring, he was more upright than he was during the season. The crouch allows him to maintain balance and a good rear hip load. But it also forces him to rely more on his arms for power than his lower half. If he can get back to hitting comfortably from a vertical stance, he could improve his power. At this point, Lawrie needs more strength to tighten up his hand path. He has a bit of a loop in his swing, which could lead to some 100+ strikeout seasons.

            Lawrie is a max-effort runner. He doesn’t glide on the base paths, but he exhibited above-average speed last season. When we saw him in Spring Training, he was still being tested as a catcher, though the Brewers had already announced that they intended to move him to second. Given his good speed and solid balance, he could turn into a decent second baseman. Don’t expect him to be more than average at the position. And there’s still a chance that he could be shifted to the outfield.

            As he fills out, Lawrie could surface as an above-average power hitter. He can already drive the ball to the opposite field and his swing plane shouldn’t lead to high ground-ball totals. Lawrie seemed a little rushed at the plate last year. If he can slow the game down and take more control of his plate appearances – not unrealistic for someone who’s coming off his first full season – he could have a breakout 2010 season. He has 25+ home run power potential, which could allow him to become a well-above-average offensive second baseman.

 

Mike Leake

117.2 IP as a freshman, 121.1 sophomore and 142.0 junior

Led all AFL pitchers with a 3.7% walk rate (min. 70 TBF)

Ranked 12th in AFL in GB% with a 55.2; only 18.3% K, though

Finished ‘09 NCAA season 2nd in nation in Ks (behind Strasburg)

 

Our research has shown that there is not a significant correlation between pitching success and height among professional pitchers. But decades of reports about “undersized” righties have created a fog of bias that most people cannot see out of. Given all the advancements in scouting over the past decade, Leake is the kind of pitcher who should cease to be overlooked. But many people will still discount his abilities for the wrong reasons.

Leake has impeccable (plus plus) command and he pounds the zone with quality strikes. His fastball touched 93 MPH at the AFL and sat 88-91. Leake also throws a changeup, slider, curve and cutter. He’s able to throw his change 8-10 MPH slower than his fastball with the same arm action. And both pitches have magnificent sinking movement – he’s a good ground-ball pitcher. Leake has some deception in his delivery, which allows his fastball to appear as if it’s exploding out of his hand. An outstanding athlete, Leake is also one of the smartest pitchers we’ve ever interviewed. He radiates a competitive aura and describes his approach to pitching as “clowning around with hitters a bit and just trying to make them look silly.”

After watching Leake pitch in the College World Series, Orel Hershiser compared him to David Cone and called out Leake’s unique ability to “spin the ball at release and put tremendous touch and finish on the ball.” With four average of better offerings, Leake has one of the highest floors of any pitching prospect who has recently come through the minors. He repeats his mechanics well, has an easy delivery and mixes his pitches masterfully. Expect Leake to turn into at least a No. 3 starter. Don’t be surprised if he becomes a No. 1-2.

 

Jonathan Lucroy

Had a 28% line-drive rate on the road in ’09 and 4% at home

Over 65 AFL PA: 7.7% BB, 16.9% K, .310/.354/.483 line

AFL walk rate was much lower than A/A+/AA totals

Former Ragin’ Cajun (along with Paul Bako and B.J. Ryan)

 

Lucroy didn’t match his 2008 breakout campaign numbers last year, but he did show areas of improvement. Lucroy combines balance, solid bat speed and very good swing quickness in one package. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but could be around fringe-average when he fills out. He made some adjustments in his swing between Spring Training and the AFL in going from a spread out stance to a more upright one with a larger stride. This didn’t seem to affect his pitch tracking and helped him show promising power at the AFL. His short, line drive swing generates plenty of hard contact and he improved his plate discipline in 2009 – walked 12 times more than he struck out.

Lucroy starts with his hands low and walks away from them for a load – lets his natural forward movement load his hands – which helps him easily fish balls out of the bottom of the zone. This kind of approach could create struggles against hard stuff up in the strike zone. While not a defensive stalwart behind the plate, Lucroy does have average catch and throw abilities, and should be able to stick at catcher long term. He’s a solid defensive catcher overall. His size and body type shouldn’t be a hindrance for his future athleticism, and we had him as a 40 runner at the AFL, which is above-average for a catcher. He may even be an average overall runner.

While he didn’t show as much power in 2009 as he did in 2008 – BABIP dipped 30+ points – the improvement in walk rate and performances Double-A and the AFL made his 2009 season a success. Lucroy has no major faults. He doesn’t profile as a superstar, but his high floor is pretty high. With reasonable progress, he could become a productive big league catcher for many years to come. There’s a chance that he could become a slightly above-average big leaguer.

 

Chris Marrero

His 10.10% HR/air rate was well-above-average in the Carolina League

Over 93 AFL PA: 8.6% BB, 17.2% K, .349/.402/.542 line

AFL BABIP (.400) was the highest it’s been since rookie ball

The nephew of former big leaguer Eli Marrero

 

Marrero rebounded well in 2009 after his 2008 season ended prematurely due to a broken right fibula sustained in a home plate collision. He’s a classic case of achieving separation between his lower and upper halves by opening his lower body as he strides. This lets him pull his upper body rearward at the same time. This “X-Factor Stretch” – then angle between his upper and lower body -- helps give him solid bat speed and very good power.

Marrero’s form of separation comes with a price, as he’s no more than an average contact hitter. He pulls his arms back to load, which gives him separation and helps his balance, but this is a slow reacting load that adds length to his swing. He doesn’t have great swing quickness or handle pitches down and away well. He mashes balls out over the plate and up in the zone, but his inefficiencies and hole down and away may make him inconsistent. A third baseman in high school, Marrero was shifted to left field his first pro season. He has since been moved to first, where his clunky footwork makes him a below-average defender. He lacks agility and his hands aren’t soft.

Marrero’s lack of defensive value means his bat is going to have to carry him. His walk and strikeout rates have not been outstanding and while he has above-average to plus power, he’s still learning how to use all of it efficiently in games. If Marrero can improve his swing quickness and walk rates, his offensive value would increase dramatically. He showed a sweet line-drive hack at the AFL and has the potential to one day turn into a solid-average player in the Major Leagues.

 

Fernando Martinez

Only INT hitter under 24 with 11%+ HR/air rate last season

Played 14 Dominican League games in return from knee surgery

Youngest hitter in AA in ‘08 and AAA in ‘09

Holds record for youngest player in AFL history (18.0, 2006)

 

Ever since making his full-season debut as a 17-year-old in the South Atlantic League (2006), Martinez has generated a lot of buzz. With big-league bat speed and lightning-quick wrists, he has the potential to put up elite power and contact rates.

His swing has some similarities to Raul Ibanez’s. But Martinez keeps his hands tucked into his body as he loads, which makes it tough for him to hit pitches on the inner half of the plate. Few 20-year-olds have had the kind of hot streak he had in Triple-A last May. He totaled 15 extra-base hits (7 HR) and only struck out 12.2% of the time over 98 plate appearances. Aside from that small sample of a hot streak, he hasn’t put up overwhelming numbers in the upper minors. His walk rate has been below-average at each of his minor league stops.

Though he played some center field for the Mets in his MLB debut and has a good arm, Martinez doesn’t have the speed and instincts to be more than an emergency replacement at the position. His biggest question mark has been his ability to stay on the field. Martinez has yet to play more than 90 regular season games in one season. He was limited by a torn meniscus in his right knee most recently (July of 2009). He’s also endured lingering hamstring problems (2008) and a broken hamate bone (2007).

It’s easy to become impatient with players who have trouble staying healthy. But Martinez isn’t someone to overlook. He could be one healthy season away from putting it all together. And if that happens, he has a chance to surface as an all-star caliber outfielder. Don’t sleep on him!

 

Brian Matusz

65.6% FB, 15.8% SL, 12.2% CH, 6.4% CB over 748 MLB pitches

2008 AFL totals: 27.7% K, 6.3% BB and 1.67 GO/AO (112 TBF)

113th pick in ‘05 (4th round); 2nd-highest unsigned pick that year

His last name is pronounced Mat-us

 

One of the most polished pitchers from the 2008 Draft class, Matusz reached the majors in his first full season. He totaled 157.2 innings in 2009 before the Orioles shut him down – after his September 12th start. The Arizona native commands five offerings: straight FB (4-seam), 2-seam FB, curve, slider and changeup. His fastball sat at 89-93 MPH during his time in the majors. He also showed an above-average changeup (81-84), plus curveball (75-79) and above-average slider (79-83) – velos from PitchFX. Matusz’ 4-seamer is more explosive than his 2-seamer and he commands the 4-seamer better. But the 2-seamer has good arm-side run and some tilt to it.

Matusz’ walk rate has ranged from 6.3% to 7.6% over his four professional stops. It didn’t spike in majors, a tribute to the quality of his arsenal – especially when you factor in his quick ascent to the majors and that he skipped Triple-A. Eastern League lefties wanted nothing to do with him (3-for-39 with 1 BB and 14 K; .276 OPS).

Matusz has an advanced feel for pitching and we don’t see any red flags in his mechanics. He repeats his delivery well and while his arm action isn’t perfect, it doesn’t make him a bigger risk for injury than the average pitcher. Athletic, competitive and focused, he has a slow-tempo windup and a lightning quick arm. With the potential for four above-average offerings, he could turn into a No. 1-2 starter.

 

Tyler Matzek

K’d 33.3% of the batters he faced in HS last year – MaxPreps.com

Largely considered one of the least likely 1st rounders to sign in ‘09

Was slated to be a two-way player at the University of Oregon

Walked 10.4% his Sr. year in HS; .144 batting average against

 

Tyler Matzek was the premier high school pitcher in the 2009 draft class, which was flush with talented prep hurlers. The California southpaw entered the scouting season as a relatively safe bet due to his solid command, deep pitching repertoire, and advanced feel for pitching. As the draft neared, Matzek's stuff improved. Whereas his fastball sat 90-93 MPH the summer before the draft, Matzek was sitting 93-95 and touching 97-98 repeatedly before baseball's June Draft. As Matzek's stock increased, so did his asking price and he slid to the 11th pick despite being widely considered as one of the top five talents in the draft. Matzek combines his potentially plus-plus fastball with a plus slider that has very late break, a changeup that could be an above-average pitch and a curveball. His curve lags behind his other offerings but has shown the potential to be an average or better pitch. Matzek's command potential rates as high as a 65+ on the scouting scale and is directly related to his nearly flawless mechanics.

He has outstanding leg drive and hip rotation, what are what give him his outstanding velocity. He gets the ball up to the driveline using a pendulum-type swinging motion with his arm – where some pitching make more of a stabbing motion – and accelerates the ball directly towards home plate, coming from a high 3/4 arm angle and pronating strongly through his release point. Overall, his mechanics are pretty clean.

Matzek is still very young and unproven professionally, but he ranks up there with Rick Porcello and Clayton Kershaw as the premier pitching prospects coming out of high school. With his polished command of multiple offerings, he could be ready to spend some time in High-A next season. Despite the fact that the Rockies have been patient with many of their pitching prospects recently, Matzek is a guy who the organization could move quickly. We don’t expect him to be brought along as quickly as Porcello and Kershaw were, but if any prep pitcher from the 2009 draft class is promoted that quickly, our money would be on Matzek. He has the potential to emerge as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

 

Jenrry Mejia

According to BA, registered 2nd-fastest pitch at the AFL (98.5 MPH)

Walked 12.6% of the AA/AFL batters he faced in 2009

Will become visibly frustrated with runners on base at times

Averaged just under 5.0 innings a start last season

 

          Filthy, nasty, dirty, explosive, electric, dominant, powerful, high-upside talent. Any teenager who can touch the high-90s and blow away full-season talent will gain a lot of believers in a hurry. Mejia made a near-seamless transition from short-season ball in 2008 to Double-A in 2009. Performances like that don’t happen very often. When we saw Mejia, his changeup was very impressive. It was so good and he relied on it so much that he almost threw it too often. His explosive fastball sits in the mid-90s and has outstanding late cut. If he could learn to command it, he has enough velo and movement to throw it 80% of the time. His slider is inconsistent.

            Mejia tricks people into believing he has easy mechanics by utilizing a calm windup. While his windup is controlled, he employs max-effort arm action and a large amount of upper-body torque. Mejia’s deceptive but also relatively inconsistent. He’s demonstrated that he still has improvements to make with his command. Hard-throwers also are at risk of wearing their arms down faster than guys who don’t touch the mid-90s. Mejia was sidelined from June 24th to August 11th last year due to a strained middle finger. He’s an outstanding athlete.

            It’s easy to look at Mejia and think front-line closer. He could provide MLB value in 2010 if the Mets want to give him a chance at that kind of role. But with someone with his rare power/ground-ball arsenal, there’s too much upside to not give him a chance to prove himself as a starter.

 

Jiovanny Mier

A good combination of high-floor defensive and offensive skills

K’d in 15.4% of his 104 July PA then 23.0% of his 100 August PA

BABIP fluctuated drastically in rookie ball (.403 in July; .259 in August)

He was an all-state soccer player in high school

 

We ranked Jiovanni Mier as the top shortstop in the 2009 draft, and the talented California product proved to be more polished than anticipated. A strong all-around athlete, Mier has above-average range and plus arm strength. He combines terrific raw tools with smooth actions and could be an above-average defender at shortstop. True shortstops with any kind of offensive upside are very rare, and given his outstanding debut, Mier has demonstrated the tools to be an asset with the bat as well as the glove. Despite a reputation as a bit of a free swinger in high school, Mier showed outstanding patience, in a relatively small sample size, in rookie ball. If the walk rate he showed at Greeneville is indicative of his true talent level, Mier could be a top-of-the-order hitter.

Mier’s load is a little inefficient. He drops his hands and bars his arm slightly, but he has excellent hip rotation and looks to be a good low-ball hitter. His bat speed is just average and combined with his deep load and arm bar, Mier may have problems connecting with good elevated fastballs. He didn’t time his load well when we saw him in high school, something that may make his bat look slower than it actually is. Though cushioned by a high batting average on balls in play, Mier may not hit for a high average as he progresses through the minors and beyond due to high fly-ball tendencies. He’s an average runner and he has the body type to maintain good speed – lean, athletic build. A slick fielder, he excels on defense because of quick feet, elite glove and graceful actions. His arm is average to slightly above-average. If he winds up not having the range for shortstop, Mier could become one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball.

Mier has good strength for his size and solid pull-power. He has a good line-drive approach and could surface as an above-average hitter for an up-the-middle defender. His patience and defensive value give him a relatively high floor for such an inexperienced player. If he reaches his potential, he could be a No. 2 hitter and borderline All-Star. 

 

Jared Mitchell

Swings for the fences with an uppercut hack

Ranked 5th in all of NCAA D-1 baseball in walks last year

Was a wide receiver and kick returner as well as ball player at LSU

A well-above-average runner; stays upright with no wasted movement

 

Mitchell is among the most difficult players to rank in all of the minors. Few prospects have as high an upside or as scary a downside. Probably the best pure athlete in the 2009 draft, Mitchell split time between baseball and football at LSU. He possesses terrific strength and game-changing speed. A take-and-rake hitter, Mitchell shows plus pull power and patiently works himself deep in counts. Mitchell has good bat speed with a strong upper cut in this swing. He crushes balls that are down-and-in and has easy opposite-field power.

Often looking bad on off-speed stuff, Mitchell struggles with pitch recognition. He didn’t hit lefties well last year –.259/.423/.469 in college last year (source: collegesplits.com). Contact ability is the one thing holding him back from being an elite prospect.

A real burner, Mitchell gets good jumps and takes advanced reads on fly balls. Though he played mostly left field in college – LSU center fielder Leon Landry, another football player, is even faster than Mitchell – Mitchell is a true center fielder. His arm is solidly above-average, some people consider it plus. Mitchell’s wide receiver days seem to translate well to the outfield – in football terms, he’s a ballhawk.

Mitchell’s patience and defensive value raise his floor. His contact issue and platoon splits lower it. He's inexperienced and raw for a college product. Maybe fully devoting his athletic attention to baseball for the first time gives him more upside. Mitchell is a study in contradiction. A potential Three True Outcomes star, a term usually associated with "old player skills", Mitchell is a truly exciting athlete. It'll take a few years, but there is at least a chance Mitchell could develop into an MVP-caliber player.

 

Jesus Montero

13.2% K was 3rd-best among FSL teenagers

2nd in HR/air for FSL teenagers (9.20%; behind Mike Stanton)

Has attempted one stolen base every 86 professional games

Totaled just 3 hits (0 XBH) in 29 Venezuelan Winter League PA

 

Big and strong, Montero has special power. He takes a short, quick swing that puts a jolt into the ball. A balanced hitter with good barrel awareness and a geared toward contact, he’s posted elite strikeout rates throughout his career. Montero effortlessly drives the ball to all fields. After showing promising pop during his first two seasons, the Venezuela native demonstrated standout game power in 2009.

He put together one of the Eastern League’s best HR/air rates (11.30%) despite being its youngest hitter. He also rarely wasted plate appearances by hitting infield fly balls in 2009 (less than 3.0% of his ball in play). The biggest knock on Montero’s offensive game is his below-average patience. It’s worth noting, however, that he’s managed to increase his walk rate at each one of his full-season league stops. His 2009 season was cut short at the start of August when he broke the middle finger on his left hand while catching. He played in nine Venezuelan Winter League games during the offseason, evidence that his finger was back to normal.

It’s rare for guys as tall as he is to stick behind the plate. And his current defensive game leaves plenty of room for improvement – footwork and receiving in particular – though he does have a strong arm. It’s much more likely that he’ll be a 1B/DH in the majors than a catcher. We’ve also received reports of Montero struggling with the mental challenges of the game, such as dealing with bad calls. He has plenty of time to mature, though. Montero’s outstanding bat speed and easily power could make him an annual 30+ home run threat. Looking at offense alone, there’s a case to be made that Montero’s the best hitting prospect in baseball.

 

Michael Montgomery

Walked 19.6% of his 51 MWL batters; only 7.7% of the next 181

Throws a fastball, circle change, curveball and palmball

He can struggle with the command of his breaking balls

Attended the same CA high school as James Shields and Todd Zeile

 

The Royals spent big in 2008, snapping up projectable high school pitchers. And Michael Montgomery may be their prize investment. A tall athlete, he has more strength than his lean, 180-pound physique might lead you to believe. Montgomery is the definition of projectable. He gained helium as the 2008 Draft approached due to an uptick in velo – started topping 90 MPH regularly – and has continued to improve in pro ball. His fastball now sits 90-93 MPH, touching 95 MPH, and is accompanied by a well-above-average changeup and an ever improving curveball. Montgomery relied on a palmball as his primary off-speed pitch in high school, and still throws it on occasion, but has moved to a more traditional repertoire. He’s also shown signs of being a terrific groundball pitcher in the minors.

Montgomery's motion is smooth. His arm action is short and simple, as he gets the ball up into the driveline quickly. His hip rotation has gotten better since his high school days and it looks to play apart in the uptick of his velocity. Montgomery drives his glove-side shoulder down as he accelerates the ball towards home. This increases force while taking some strain off his arm. He comes from a fairly high 3/4 arm angle, which combined with his height, leads to good downhill plane. Montgomery's athleticism and smooth, repeatable mechanics have lead to good control. After walking six batters in nine July innings, his walk rate was 3.5% over his next 171 High-A batters.

Right now, Montgomery's stuff, groundball rates and advanced command give him a good shot of being an above-average big league pitcher. Given his youth and projectability, he has the upside to develop into a true top-of-the-rotation starter.

 

Logan Morrison

2.31 deviations above the average Southern Leaguer in BB%

0.67 deviations below Southern League average in ofFB%

Has consciously tailored his swing for ground-balls and line-drives

Morrison’s given first name is Justis, not Logan

 

Among the safest bets in the minor leagues to turn into at least a serviceable big league hitter, Morrison generates above-average bat speed without taking a long swing. He recognizes pitches well and displays excellent bat control. Patient and comfortable hitting to all fields, Morrison has been known to put on some impressive shows in batting practice. But his current approach and swing mechanics may continue to limit his home run totals.

Equipped with strong, muscular legs and a v-shaped torso, he’ll need to do a better job tying his hands to his body in order to reach his power ceiling. He has a small, simple load but he pushes his hands back as he readies his swing, interrupting his stretch and lessening his upper-body efficiency. He then plants his front foot aggressively and shifts his weight to his front side prematurely, which puts him in a poor position to drive off-speed pitches.

Morrison told us he models his game after James Loney. Utilizing a level swing to generate line drives, he doesn’t try to hit home runs. A good athlete, he moves well and has the body control needed to play solid defense at first base. Morrison fractured his right wrist in a collision at first base on the second day of the 2009 season. The injury kept him out for nearly two months. He may not surface as a star, given the abundance of power hitters who man first base. He should, however, carve out a solid career as a MLB regular and could become a 20+ home run threat.

 

Wil Myers

Signed for early first round money

He’s an above-average runner

We ranked him 24th overall on our Draft Board last June

Committed to play at South Carolina before turning pro

 

There were 90 players selected ahead of Wil Myers in the 2009 draft, but few more talented. A good athlete with very good tools, Myers generated a lot of buzz in his professional debut. He has a short, toe-tapping stride and clears his hips well – hip rotation equals bat speed. His swing plane is short and simple with a little bit of loft, which should translate to contact ability and decent power. He keeps his weight back well, which should allow him wait on off-speed pitches. Myers showed solid patience in a small sample size during his pro debut. If his 9.4 BB% is indicative of his true ability level, he could be one of the more patient everyday catchers in the game.

A solid, average runner who played all over the field in high school, his ultimate defensive home was questioned by some but the Royals seem happy to teach Myers the finer points of catching. His arm strength is well-above average, bordering on plus, and he certainly has the natural agility needed to block balls in the dirt. Still, at 6-foot-3, he’s taller than many catchers.

There was some talk about Myers going as high as top five overall in the 2009 draft. And he ended up getting a larger signing bonus than Aaron Crow, the Royals’ pick at 12th overall. His bonus demands played a major role in causing him to fall to the third round.

It's important not to get too carried away with small sample sizes, especially ones supported by .510 BABIPs, but Myers' tools support his pro debut production. He’s still raw defensively, but has the upside to be a well above-average defender at a premium position. Offensively, Myers' combines solid patience, contact ability and current gap-power which could turn into 20+ home run pop in a few years.  Myers has a chance to be one of the better catchers in baseball. His bat has impressed us as much as any 2009 prep hitter’s.

 

Thomas Neal

Changed to a more aggressive hitting approach at AFL

Over 89 AFL PA: 15.7% BB, 12.4% K, .284/.384/.392 line

Was 1.77 deviations above the average Cal League hitter in LD%

Won the team MVP award for San Jose

 

            The first time we saw Neal last year, he wasn’t starting every day in the Cal League. But he hit enough to become the top bat in the prospect-laden San Jose lineup. Neal has elite bat speed, a good eye and a one of the hardest swings we saw all year. He tries to murder the ball. Patient and balanced with good upper-body resistance, he hits for power and crushes pitches down in the zone.

            Neal shifts on his front side a little early. Because of a small stride and solid upper-body resistance, he doesn’t get caught lunging. He does, however, push his hands up and back for a load, which traps the barrel of his bat behind his helmet and gives him a poor bat angle at launch. This gives him a long path to the ball and causes timing problems on hard fastballs. Neal also tends to chase outside pitches and appears to have a hole under his hands.

            A strong kid with a thick, muscular lower half, Neal is currently an average runner – maybe even slightly above – but he’ll likely slow down a bit as his body matures. He plays a decent outfield but could be an above-average defender at first base. Neal missed most of the 2007 season due to a shoulder injury. Surgically repaired, the shoulder likely wasn’t back to full strength in Augusta (2008).

            It takes a little while for prospects like Neal to catch on. Coming out of community college in 2005 he: 1) lasted past the 1,000th pick in the draft 2) didn’t have much success prior to 2009 and 3) has yet to demonstrate that he can hit in the upper minors. But having seen him play over half a dozen times last year, we’ll let you in on a little secret: he’s the real deal. He carried his success over to AFL, proving that he just needed a healthy season in order to start putting things together. Neal has enough bat to be an above-average hitter at first base. Don’t be surprised if he winds up being a better offensive player than Buster Posey.

 

Jon Niese

His curveball is a swing-and-miss offering

A classic, low-effort lefty, he has simple mechanics

Had the highest GB% in the International League last year (min. 90 IP)

Elevates his arm angle when he throws his curveball

 

Niese is the type of pitcher who perennially gets underrated by prospect wonks. His mediocre fastball velocity deters a lot of people. But he gets the job done with movement and command, and the results would make a lot of power pitchers jealous.

He can run his fastball into the low-90s, though it sinks a little more when it comes in 88-90 MPH. He also throws an 86-88 MPH cut fastball with late movement that’s an above-average offering. Niese is actually capable of cutting the ball to either side of the plate and isn't afraid to cut the ball inside on a lefthanded hitter – which is very rare for a lefthanded pitcher. The pitch might technically be a screwball. Niese's curveball is a true 12/6 offering with plus break. He commands the pitch reasonably well and it could easily develop into an out pitch. Niese also has a low-80s change with good tumble. The speed differential works well with his four-seamer, but if a hitter his looking for his two-seam/cutter/screwball/thingamajig then the speed differential would do little to throw off his timing.

Niese generates a decent amount of force with his lower half. He picks the ball up a little late but he has a quick arm and his timing problems don't seem too severe. A pulled hamstring ended his 2009 season early. Niese should be a very good ground-ball pitcher. He has a chance to surface as an above-average MLB starter.

 

 

Derek Norris

His career walk rate is 17.9%

Extreme fly-ball hitter, which usually means low batting averages

Committed to Wichita State prior to signing with Washington

Primarily played third base in high school

 

Norris broke his left hamate bone in instructs and was unable to participate in the AFL. The Nationals 2009 Minor League Player of the Year, he has sick power – 8 HR last May and 9 in June. Legend has it, he hit a ball out of the stadium at Bowling Green last year. He hits a lot of balls in the air and makes loud contact. He’s also patient and doesn’t get cheated. Norris wasn’t impressive on defense last year. Often time he just looked lazy behind the plate. And he’s admitted to having his share of defensive weaknesses.

 “Sometimes I struggle with the ball popping out of the mitt,” Norris told The Washington Times in May of 2009. “My strength is probably throwing – I would consider myself to have a pretty good arm. But weaknesses – we could go on all day on weaknesses; I could think of so many. My intensity, and my leadership on the field could get better, too.”

Though he had a few months where he didn’t struggle with contact last season, Norris did strike out a lot. He’s been a below-average contact hitter over the course of his minor league career. Hagerstown has not played as an extreme pitcher’s park over the last few years, but 18 of Norris’ 23 home runs came on the road last year.

Norris is built a little like Chris Shelton. He has legitimate power to go along with what should be above-average patience, but he’s a poor bet to stick behind the plate. The Kansas native is also a below-average runner. Even if Norris ends up first base or designated hitter, his bat alone may be enough to allow him to become an average big leaguer. His wrist recovery seems to be going fine and he’ll likely start the season in High-A. With another dominant season at the plate, Norris could align himself to get a look in the big leagues by 2011. His bat could be above average in the big leagues.

 

Jarrod Parker

Shut down after his July 30, 2009 start due to tightness in his elbow

Had Tommy John surgery on October 28, 2009, after failed rehab

Impressed us with his FB movement and command of his secondary

His FB command is good, but it’s an area where he could improve

 

Parker's upside is true ace. Unfortunately his mechanics make it unlikely that he'll reach his potential. Parker has a deep repertoire of pitches, all of which grade out as average or better. He throws two fastballs, a four-seamer that sits 94-96 MPH – it touched 98 when we saw him (4/26/09) – while his two-seam offering averages 89-92 mph with late sink and some arm-side run. His changeup is 80-84 mph with good tumble. His slider has similar velocity with good depth. He can throw both of his off-speed pitches for strikes. Parker posted much higher ground-ball rates in 2009 than 2008. He has the off-speed stuff to keep hitters off balance and the fastball movement to induce weak contact, which should continue to translate into grounders.

Mechanically, Parker has significant red flags and we pegged him as an injury risk even before he was first sidelined with tightness in his elbow. His arm action is long, as he takes the ball from his glove down towards the ground and raises his elbow, which results in an arm action close to the dreaded Inverted W. This leads to very late forearm turnover. Parker has a tall-and-fall delivery which limits the force generated by his lower half, a problem that’s exacerbated by the early opening of his front hip. He comes from a very low 3/4 arm slot that’s nearly sidearm. The low arm slot adds stress to the elbow – though he does pronate well – and was likely a contributing factor to Parker's recent surgery. He'll miss all of 2010 but will only be 22 years old upon his 2011 return. 

Parker's impressive raw stuff should allow him to move quickly once he's back on the mound. He has a chance to do something special every time he toes the rubber. But enjoy it while you can, as he’s unlikely to be a consistent innings-eater in the big leagues.

 

Martin Perez

Went 5.0 IP or more in 40% of Apr.-Jun. starts; 66.7% of Jul.-Sept.

Struck out 9 batters twice in Low-A – one a 4.0 IP start, one 5.0

Was the youngest player in the Texas League last season

Brushes off comps to Johan Santana; comps himself to Martin Perez

 

The precocious left-hander has drawn Johan Santana comps since his first foray into affiliated action. While the Santana comparison is, in part, based on Perez being a six-foot Venezuelan southpaw, like the Cy Young winner, Perez's upside could vault him among the game’s best. Boasting a 91-93 MPH fastball, devastating changeup and a late-breaking pronated curveball, Perez projects to have three plus pitches as well as plus command. Moving up to Low-A in 2009 from short-season ball (2008), Perez decreased his walk rate while increasing his strikeouts (by a whopping 7.8%). He also held his own at Double-A despite being the youngest player in the Texas League.

Mechanically, Perez is smooth but not perfect. He lands a bit closed as he strides towards the plate and has a very large degree of external rotation, which is associated with elbow problems. He finished 2009 with 114.2 innings and could be a few years away from being able to handle a starter’s work load. But very few teenage pitchers are tested for over 150 innings in a season, so it’s hard to hold this against him. Perez comes from a high 3/4 arm slot and transfers energy very well with his torso, showing good core stretch and gaining acceleration as he flexes his torso towards home plate. Perez is a good athlete who repeats his delivery well and pronates, even on his curveball, as well as any prospect we've studied. Perez's body type leaves room to add muscle mass and his mechanics are those of a high-velocity pitcher, so it is possible that Perez's already sterling stuff will take even another step forward in the near future.

Perez combines projection and production in a rare package. The Rangers will likely keep him at Double-A for the majority of 2010, but given his achievement to date Perez could make his major league debut as a 20-year-old.  

 

Buster Posey

The 5th-youngest PCL hitter in 2009 (100 PA min.)

Over 86 AFL PA: 15.1% BB, 20.9% K, .225/.345/.338 line

 55.5% PCL GB rate was 1.70 deviations higher than average

26 HR as a jr. at FSU after hitting just 7 in his first two years

 

The 2008 Golden Spikes Award winner, Posey lit up the California League and Pacific Coast League in his full-season debut – he skipped Double-A. He’s an elite contact hitter with excellent patience and the potential to be an average or better defensive catcher. And he’s close to being big-league ready.

More athletic than most catchers, he’s now spent three seasons behind the plate, after playing shortstop in high school and part of college. Posey has a good arm and shows solid footwork. Following his September call-up, he was sent to the Arizona Fall League in October, where he had just four extra-base hits over 86 plate appearances. He’d been catching for 10 straight months by that time, and he told us his legs were tired at the AFL. Though he has promising power, he also hits a lot of ground balls. If he doesn’t find a way to put more balls in the air, his power ceiling will be limited. The Georgia native is a slightly-below-average runner – above-average for a catcher.

Combining his defensive value with his high offensive floor, Posey is a very strong bet to turn into an average big leaguer. He has the potential to blossom into an above-average big leaguer.

 

Max Ramirez

Disabled to due left wrist tendonitis in July of 2009

Over 265 VWL PA: 14.0% BB, 23.8% K, .252/.378/.486 line

Traded for Mike Lowell, but trade was vetoed (Lowell’s thumb)

First career Major League home run came off Roy Oswalt

 

Ramirez might not be pretty to look at in a uniform, but he is a joy to watch hit. Balanced and barrel-chested, he uses a Ryan Zimmerman-like double barrel tip to create easy and well-above-average bat speed and good power. He can hammer balls out over the plate to center and right center. And his double tip gives him the ability to resist with his hands and still damage off-speed pitches. Ramirez waits for his pitch and can put a charge into it. He hides his hands slightly behind his front shoulder. His big upper body gives him a slight hole up and in. He has garnered mixed reviews as a catcher and appears to be destined for DH or first. But his bat is his meal ticket. While Ramirez has big actions in his swing, he generally does a good job of staying centered over his rear leg and swings with authority. 

The Venezuelan native missed time with wrist injuries in May and July of 2009 and never could get on track. While he did find his power stroke over an extended stint in the VWL, he struck out and flied out a lot. Ramirez’s bat is close to MLB-ready and it’s not out of the question that he could break camp with the big club this spring. He has the potential to put up above-average power numbers and walk a lot. Don’t let his age – relatively old for a prospect – and 2009 season overshadow his patient approach and electric bat speed.

 

Wilson Ramos

Over 232 VWL PA: 9.1% BB, 17.7% K, .332/.397/.582 line

Was a deviation better than average Eastern League hitter in LD%

Is on the Twins’ 40-man roster and could see playing time in ’10

Born in the same city as Felix Hernandez and Endy Chavez

 

Wilson Ramos missed three months of the 2009 season due to a broken finger followed by a hamstring injury. While he played well in the regular season, he really took off during his 54-game stint in the Venezuelan Winter League. Ramos has above-average bat speed and plus raw power, along with fairly good hittability. He has very good strength, and can hammer balls out of almost any part of the ball park. Never one to walk much, Ramos worked hard in winter ball to improve his plate discipline, but still has room to improve.

Ramos receives well and has drawn praise for his throwing abilities – threw out 42% of runners in the ‘09 regular season. He has battled his weight during his four years of pro ball, and while he moves well for his size now, he does not have elite agility behind the dish and is a borderline clogger on the base paths. Ramos’ lead arm gets long during his load which adds some length to his swing, but he has decent swing quickness to get around on pitches inside. He slashed his strikeout rate in half from 2008 to 2009, but he was closer to 20% than 10% in the VWL. When he’s locked in, Ramos can easily drive the ball in either gap, though he will run into bouts of being pull-happy.

Communication with pitchers has been a problem due to language barriers, according to Baseball America. Ramos is still learning the English language and how to be a better on-field leader. He doesn’t have a great body type and despite only being 22, he has already had to work hard to stay in shape. If he can conquering those two obstacles and continue to improve at the plate, Ramos could turn into a Ramon Hernandez type, but with better defense. Ramos is a great breakout candidate. His upside is above-average MLB catcher.

 

Josh Reddick

Takes a big, uppercut swing

K-rate jumped from 12.7% in Low-A (’07) to 21.6% in Double-A (’09)

Good speed in the OF but hasn’t been able to steal bases

Rail-thin frame may not allow him to be a consistent HR-threat

 

Athletic and wiry strong, Reddick has risen through the minors quickly. He has very good bat speed and the potential to be an above-average power hitter. A rare feat, Reddick has managed to improve his plate discipline as he’s progressed through the minors. With good loft in his swing, he can fish balls out of the bottom of the zone and pound them into a gap. The consequence of his uppercut swing is a long swing that doesn’t work well against high fastball. Reddick also doesn’t completely gather himself over his rear leg before attacking the baseball. He has aggressive forward movements and seems to always be on his front side, even on his best swings. He was largely a pull hitter in 2008 but learned to hit to the gaps in 2009. The Georgia native has good range for and a plus arm. He plays the outfield very aggressively and has good instincts. He could be a solid defensive center fielder and possibly above-average in right field.

Reddick has been prone to chasing balls out of the zone. He was overmatched in his short stint in Boston last season, but the tools are still there for him to be a productive player. If he can play strong defense in center field, Reddick has a chance to turn into an above-average big leaguer, otherwise he may be more of a solid fourth outfielder.

 

Anthony Rizzo

Missed majority of the 2008 season with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma

K% dropped 4.8% while BB% rose 1.4% after mid-season promotion

Note the 40% home LD-rate at Salem verus 18% road rate

Was once walked intentionally 5 times in a single high school game

 

A polished prospect with outstanding size, Rizzo finally logged his first full season in 2009. With an excellent eye and the ability to fight off tough pitches, his offensive approach is very advanced. Throw in a swing path that allows his bat head to spend considerable time in the zone, and you have a guy who’s a very tough out. Rizzo’s offensive game compares quite favorably to Marlins’ prospect Logan Morrison’s. Like Morrison, Rizzo’s approach is to drive the ball into the gaps opposed to swinging for the fences.

The question with Rizzo is how much projection is left? While his peripherals improved after a promotion to High-A, his isolated power fell to .125. This did little to quiet the questions regarding his ceiling. His swing has a tendency to become long at times. This leads to him having some difficulty catching up to 90+ MPH fastballs. On defense, Rizzo is considered to be average or better. His best defensive tool is his strong, accurate throwing arm. As he matures, his mobility will decrease. One scout we talked to mentioned that Rizzo “already looked old”. He’s also already a below-average runner – 0 career triples and one attempted stolen base every 29 games.

Rizzo could spend another half-season in High-A before earning a promotion to the Eastern League. His batting average on balls in play will drop in the upper minors, at which point we’ll have a good idea of how much power he really has. Without a big jump in power production, Rizzo may never make it as a big-league regular. But given his age and lack of pro experience, we’re willing to roll the dice on the power showing up. Rizzo has the potential to turn into a solid MLB regular.

 

Hector Rondon

His arsenal reminds some people of Russ Ortiz

Low BB% are because he can throw strikes with multiple offerings

Worked as a RP for a week last May; quickly returned to starting

His last name is pronounced Ron-done

 

            Rondon has managed to sneak under the radar despite his quick ascension through the minors. His 91-94 MPH is his best pitch. He throws a two-seamer with decent sink and a four-seamer that’s pretty straight but has a bit of arm-side run. His changeup looks similar to his fastball and has the potential to be a good pitch. We were really impressed with Rondon’s slider when we saw him toward the end of last season, but it can flatten out at times.

What he lacks in explosiveness, Rondon makes up for with his ability to pound the strike zone. If he isn’t commanding his pitches down in the zone, he will get hit around. He could be a guy who gives up a lot of home runs. And he seemed hesitant to attack hitters with inside fastballs when we saw him. His ground-ball rate has gotten worse at every one of his minor league stops. Rondon’s strikeout rate also declined every month in Triple-A – from 25.3% in July (95 TBF) to 16.7% in October (60). Though his frame is thinner than what we like to see out of starting pitching prospects, Rondon has sound mechanics that could allow him to pile on more innings than most guys his size.

For someone who throws a lot of strikes, Rondon’s command is still a little raw. He shows potential to locate on the corners with his fastball, but he doesn’t have enough movement to get away with mistakes in the zone. He has yet to cross the 150-inning threshold in a single season, but he did throw 25.1 innings in Venezuela last winter. We see Rondon as a solid bet to surface as an average MLB starter. The next challenge will be seeing if he can sharpen his command enough to be more than a No. 3 starter.

 

Tony Sanchez

Wasn’t considered best talent on the board when PIT selected him

6.5% BB first two years in college; 10.9% as a junior

16.4% BB against LHP and 5.9% against RHP in ’09 (includes NCAA)

Was 3rd on the Pirates’ 2009 draft board, behind Strasburg and Ackley

 

The Pirates surprised a lot of draft analysts by selecting Sanchez fourth overall. He enjoyed a breakout junior year, improving his walk and contact rates considerably. We were cautious ranking him before the draft, as players who enjoy the type of breakout season he had in 2009 tend to give back some of their gains in pro ball. While the sample size is still small and you shouldn't get too carried away with what college products do in A-ball, Sanchez had a very encouraging pro debut, combining solid patience and contact ability with good power.

Sanchez's defensive skills are unquestioned. Despite his size, he’s a solid athlete who moves well behind the plate. His arm strength is above-average and he shows good footwork and accuracy on this throws. He should be an above-average defender. At the plate, Sanchez has a short stride and uses a toe-tap timing mechanism. Despite the short stride, he pushes strongly off his back leg, creating a lot of forward momentum. He has good strength, solid bat speed, and his swing produces loft. Sanchez should hit for decent power. His timing can be disrupted by good off-speed pitches, but he has good plate coverage and can turn around a fastball.

The early returns are good, especially his ability to control the zone, and his defensive ability gives him a relatively high-floor. Sanchez is a solid bet to emerge as an everyday player in just a few years with the upside to provide quality defense and 20 home run power.

 

Carlos Santana

Walked 2+ deviations more than ave. Eastern League hitter

Has never walked less than 10% or K’d more than 20%

Split time between 3B/OF prior to converting to C in ‘07

Since ’08: one HR every 22.0 ab vs. LHP; one every 19.6 vs. RHP

 

When Santana gets his pitch, he crushes it. And with his patience, he gets his pitch a lot. An elite power hitter who finds his way on base frequently and has solid contact skills, Santana has the offensive tools to be a stud. Factor in that he’s a catcher with an accurate cannon of an arm, good blocking skills, and athleticism and you have an elite prospect. Santana has a smooth swing with easy power. He does a good job maintaining his center of balance on his rear leg, which allows him to stay behind the ball and limits his head movement. He crushes off-speed pitches to both fields and can launch fastballs with authority.

Santana struggles with fastballs in – jumps away from the ball sometimes. He hits a lot of fly balls (37.09% in 2009 – 0.62 deviations above the EL average). He was a terrible receiver last year; pitchers didn’t like throwing to him. But he has the tools to turn into an above-average backstop, and his current shortcomings should smooth out over time. Santana is a solid runner for a catcher, but below-average overall. He’s been caught stealing in 40.0% of his attempts. Santana broke his hamate bone taking batting practice last December.

Some people can’t get past the fact that he was traded for Casey Blake then spent all of 2009 as a 23-year-old in Double-A. But he’s figured things out and has a very high floor to go along with a high ceiling. Don’t get caught up in the trap of being hesitant with Santana just because he wasn’t a highly coveted talent prior to the 2007 season. He’s a legitimate prospect with all-star potential.

 

Michael Saunders

The 8th-youngest hitter to top 150 PA in the PCL last year

Over 96 VWL PA: 10.4% BB, 21.9% K, .353/.421/.529 line

Was a below-average hitter vs. LHP in ’09; above against RHP

Born in British Columbia; played JuCo ball in Florida

 

One of the youngest players in the bigs last season, Saunders has a large frame and promising power. He has slightly above-average patience, strong hands and could develop into an average or better MLB hitter. But he has some things to iron out first.

While his swing is free and easy, Saunders’ actions are almost too loose and he doesn’t swing aggressively enough to generate the kind of bat speed that a big player should. He’s very tall in his set up and adjusts to balls down by simply dropping the barrel with his hands. This works well on inside pitches, but pitches away give him trouble. Saunders inefficiently yanks on the knob of the bat with his bottom hand to deliver the barrel and doesn’t have the lift he should in his swing. He could hit for 20-25 home runs down the road, but last year he seemed content to just try to make contact. MLB pitchers found a way to get him to strike out much more than Triple-A pitchers.

Scouting reports from tangotiger.net have Saunders’ acceleration as below-average for a center fielder. Even though he has good speed, he’d need amazing instincts to provide average defense in center. Still, he could provide strong defense in left.

Saunders is still young and has size that you can’t teach. With some added aggression in his swing and better contact rates, he could turn him into an above-average left fielder. Saunders may take a few years to figure things out at the big-league level, but he has a high ceiling. Just keep in mind that he’s going to need to make some adjustments in order to become a consistent threat at the plate.

 

Tanner Scheppers

In 11.0 AFL innings: 9 K, 4 BB, 9 H, 1 HR, 1.44 GO/AO and 7 ER

Drafted in the 2nd round by the Pirates in 2008 (48th overall)

Suffered a rotator cuff injury late in the 2008 season

3rd-highest unsigned pick of ’08 (behind Aaron Crow and Gerrit Cole)

 

Scheppers was one of the most interesting prospects in both the 2008 and 2009 drafts. He fell to the second round in 2008 due to a rotator cuff injury – which was erroneously reported as a fracture – and fell in 2009 due to bonus demands and lingering fears over his shoulder injury. No one questions his stuff. In addition to a plus-plus fastball, he shows a plus curveball with hard, late 12/6 break that sits 79-82 MPH. His slider flashes above-average and his changeup has shown some potential, although he uses it rarely. Scheppers' fastball was sitting mid-90's during his time in Indy ball and sat 94-98 MPH in the AFL (out of the pen). While he had mixed results during his limited time at the AFL, Scheppers literally has the stands buzzing over his fastball at the Rising Stars game.

Mechanically, Scheppers' is surprisingly smooth. His arm action is nearly flawless; he gets the ball up to driveline quickly and efficiently. While his leg drive is less than ideal, Scheppers' has great hip rotation and maintains a firm glove side. His follow-through is violent, as he appears to actively slam on the breaks of his pitching arm instead of letting the arm decelerate gradually. The Scheppers injury concerns from 2008 may have been slightly overblown. His shoulder impingement was strictly a muscular injury. Muscles heal. With pitcher's shoulders, velocity equals health. His follow-through could be the source of shoulder issues, but he's been completely asymptomatic for over a year. Another possible cause of the shoulder injury is that fact that Scheppers didn’t pitch much in high school. There’s some evidence to suggest that pitchers who get a late start need time to grow accustomed to such an unnatural act.

While he's yet to make his full-season debut, Scheppers could be fast-tracked. He was dominant in the four of his first five AFL relief appearances. If Scheppers can’t handle a starter’s workload, he could turn into an elite reliever. Don’t give up on him as a starter yet.

 

Scott Sizemore

Had screws surgically inserted into his ankle after an AFL collision

Was given a 6% LD-rate at home in AA and 14% on the road

Erie is among MiLB’s most HR-friendly parks; Toledo is not

Went to the same Virginia high school as David Wright

 

Sizemore made a huge leap in 2009 and was on his way toward continuing his year-long hot streak in the AFL. But a nasty ankle injury (severely torn tendons) ended his time there after just one week. Sizemore had never hit more than four home runs in a pro season before 2009, but he totaled 17 over 599 plate appearances. He has a very short, quick stroke that produces solid gap-to-gap, line-drive power and good contact rates. He can let the ball travel deep before committing, giving him time to judge the ball’s flight and make solid contact.

As a part of his load, Sizemore raises his hands before pulling hard on the knob with his bottom hand. This is his way of staying short, but few big leaguers take this kind of approach – not a huge red flag, but something to note. Sizemore has solid bat speed but his knob move creates mostly late bat speed. He offsets his lack of early bat speed by being short and quick, so he might be able to make such a swing work in the majors. Though he’s not a burner, Sizemore had 21 steals last season (84.0% success) and his above-average speed bodes well for him to be able to beat out infield singles and cover ground at second base, where he may be an average defender.

Sizemore isn’t very big and he doesn’t have much loft in his swing. It remains to be seen how much of his 2009 power breakout is real, as well as how he will rebound from his ankle injury. At a premium defensive position, he could have a solid career as an average or slightly above big leaguer. He’s a polished prospect and a good bet to break camp with Detroit this season and should provide more offense than Placido Polanco did in 2009.

 

Justin Smoak

8th-youngest hitter to top 100 PA in the PCL last season

2.27 deviations above the average Texas League hitter in LD%

Had much more success against righties than lefties last year

Started first full season in AA, skipping A+ completely

 

Smoak has good aggression in his swing and outstanding bat speed. His massive forearms help him generate power to both fields. Patient with a great eye, Smoak is a premier line-drive hitter. But he didn’t meet power expectations in his first full season. An oblique injury likely played a large role in his power struggles. He missed time from May 24 to June 21 because of the injury.

He returned with a vengeance in the World Cup (September), putting up a 1.236 OPS and hitting a home run every 6.1 at-bats over 67 plate appearances (17.9% BB and 17.9% K). Batting from an open stance, the switch-hitter gets onto his front side too soon, which leads to an early weight-shift that robs him of time to judge the ball. This puts him in a poor position to drive off-speed pitches. When we watched the South Carolina native face Cuba in the World Cup, he looked hopeless against quality breaking balls. He then started guessing on off-speed pitches and fell out of rhythm against fastballs. Smoak is a well-below-average runner. He isn’t very agile and doesn’t range well – we’d be very surprised if he winds up being an elite defender.

Smoak’s bat could become one of the best in baseball. He handled some difficult assignments well last year and could be ready to contribute in the big leagues in 2010. In a perfect world, he’d turn into an annual 35+ home run threat and on-base percentage leader.

 

Brandon Snyder

Split time between 1B (67.6%), DH (20.3%) and 3B (12.2%) in AAA

Over 79 AFL PA: 16.5% BB, 13.9% K, .354/.456/.600 line

7 of his 12 home runs from last year came in May

Missed time in 2006 with a shoulder injury (he dislocated it swinging)

 

Snyder is just about a lock to reach the big leagues on his bat alone. A balanced hitter with a smooth swing, he has an elite line-drive bat and gap power. He hits to all fields and does an excellent job staying inside the baseball. Of all the elite prospects we saw in Arizona, Snyder won us over the fastest. He has one of the prettiest right-handed swings around and a professional approach.

While he doesn’t possess outstanding bat speed or power, Snyder is strong enough to turn into an average big league hitter. He has good aggression in his swing and manages to maintain controlled movements. Snyder also upholds outstanding balance by coiling with his rear glute to maintain a solid rear leg.

A stronger eMPHasis on his top hand during his upper body unload could help Snyder improve his power. He slugged right around .600 in the Eastern League and AFL but only managed to hit two home runs in nearly 300 International League plate appearances. An average runner, Snyder is limited to first base on defense. He’s comfortable at first base and shows agility at the position.

Snyder was primarily a catcher in each of his first two seasons in pro ball. Since making the transition to first base, he’s made rapid strides at the plate. Look for him to cement his top prospect status by heading back to Triple-A this spring and putting up some solid power numbers. He’s a leader on the diamond and a great guy to have at the plate when the team needs a big hit. Count on Snyder having a decent career as a MLB hitter. He has the potential to surface as a slightly above average big leaguer.

 

Zeke Spruill

Generates a lot of weak grounders with his excellent sinker

Did not pitch in Rome from 7/25/09 through 8/25/09

His absence was not due to injury

No one from his Marietta Georgia high school has reached the bigs

 

Spruill’s combination of a potential plus sinker, elite command and an excellent pitcher’s frame make him a decent bet to turn into a mid-rotation starter. Consistently 88-93 MPH, his sinker has arm side run and considerable drop. It helped him put up his outstanding 58% ground-ball rate in 2009. He spots the pitch well and was able to pound the corners with it in his full-season debut. With nasty late, sharp break, his curveball is a potential above-average pitch. Spruill’s slider flashes average and his changeup shows some potential – some sources consider his change to already be an average-above pitch. His fluid mechanics and three-quarters arm action are repeatable and have led to low walk rates. 

Beyond a heavy sinker, Spruill has failed to impress some scouts with his pure stuff. One scout referred to his changeup as being “crude” and his slider as “fringe”. We were much more impressed with Spruill’s arsenal than Lyles when we watched the two pitch last year – Spruill looked night-and-day better. Beyond stuff, a phantom injury which led to a demotion to the Gulf Coast League wreaked of disciplinary action. Spruill does not have a reputation as a good makeup guy and may have plenty of room for growth in the maturity department. 

While some people view Spruill as projectable, others question his ability to add size. His sinker alone leaves him with a relatively high floor, but his ceiling may fall well short of top-of-the-rotation starter. Spruill should open up 2010 in Myrtle Beach, which will be a true test of his secondary offerings. If his slider sharpens and changeup continues to develop, he could put himself on the fast track to Atlanta.

 

Mike Stanton

2nd-youngest Southern League hitter in 2009 (100 PA min.)

BABIP fell from .355 in Low-A to .333 in A+ and then .288 in AA

28.3% K against LHP in AA; 29.3% against RHP

Despite athleticism, only 42% free-throw shooter as a HS senior

 

Stanton has true 80 power and achieves it easily. His offensive ceiling is sky-high and it’s not uncommon to hear his name mentioned in the same sentence as some of the game’s all-time greats. He’s also demonstrated above-average patience. The California native burst onto the prospect scene is his first full season (2008) with a 39 home run performance in the South Atlantic League.

His swing has steadily evolved since 2007 and it will need to continue to evolve as he moves forward. It’s currently largely driven by his upper body – he whips his long arms through the zone. He’ll need to involve his hips more and do a better job tying his hands into his body’s movements in order to improve his contact rate. Utilizing a double-two tap timing mechanism (see our video above from AA), Stanton has decent balance and room to improve his instincts at the plate – hasn’t figured his timing out. He also has a slight hitch in his load. It’s possible that his struggles making contact (Low-A: 28.3% K, AA: 29.1%), could prevent him from becoming a quality big leaguer – he has a long swing. But he did limit his strikeout rate to 21.4% in the FSL and he has plenty of time to continue making adjustments.

Listed at 6-foot-5, 240 pounds by MLB Advanced Media, Stanton will instantly become one of the biggest outfielders in the majors if he sticks at the position. He’s an impressive athlete given his size, but overall his movements are a bit stiff and awkward. While he’s not going to be much of a base stealer, he’s a smart base runner. Be cautious about getting too excited over Stanton. While he could turn into one of the game’s top power hitters, he’s not currently a polished prospect.

 

Stephen Strasburg

Ranked 1st in AFL in GB% (72.1) and 2nd in K% (30.3)

FB sat 94-97 MPH on 11/14/09 and 95-97 on 5/1/09

Seldom threw his changeup in college, but it’s a plus pitch

He calls his breaking ball a curve; some scouts say slider

 

In the video above, Strasburg throws his curve, changeup and fastball from flat ground. He then strikes out Matt McBride with a high, 95 MPH 4-seam fastball. If you’re expecting Strasburg to be the best pitcher in baseball over the next decade, you’ve set the bar too high. His October 22 AFL start (2.2 IP, 3 HR, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K) was an aberration in his near flawless pro debut, but he won’t always dominate.

Strasburg’s 9.2% AFL walk rate also isn’t particularly flattering. But he was probably mixing in more changeups than he will in the bigs – in an effort to get in extra reps with the offering – after rarely throwing the pitch in college. His walk rate will likely be lower this year. Still, his impressive command of three swing-and-miss pitches (plus fastball, slurve and changeup) makes him a big-league-ready arm – and likely an above-average one from day one.

The San Diego State product will enter 2010 as the industry consensus top pitching prospect in baseball. His mechanics, however, will likely lead to a significant arm injury. All pitchers come with injury risk, but Strasburg’s is heightened by his inefficient load and arm action. He puts a lot of stress on his elbow and shoulder. Attempts to significantly alter his mechanics could wear down muscles and joints more quickly than his current mechanics as well as weaken his offerings. The odds are stacked against him having the best career of any current pitching prospect. But he’s as good a bet as any to have at least a few seasons as a top-of-the-rotation starter. And there aren’t many prospects who carry his combination of upside and polish.

Given the limited number of bullets in his arm, we expect Strasburg to be fast-tracked to the bigs. There’s a chance that he could find his way into the Nationals’ rotation in April or May. Strasburg knows how to pitch and has the arsenal to be an ace starting in 2010.

 

Ryan Strieby

2.69 deviations above the Eastern League average in HR/air

Has hit 48 home runs over the last two seasons

Played 20 games in LF last season, but has primarily been a 1B

Was ticketed for the ’09 AFL but underwent hand surgery instead

 

          Strieby has been among the most productive power hitters in the minors over the last two years, providing elite power while posting above-average walk rates. So when we got a glowing scouting report on him, it didn’t take us long to jump fully aboard his wagon. Strieby creates a lot of backspin with a short, downhill swing. He extends through the ball nicely and may have the power to top 35 home runs a season. He can hit the ball out from foul line to foul line. According to Nick Underhill, who helps cover the Erie SeaWolves from Scout.com, Strieby routinely hit home runs over a hockey arena that sits just behind the left field wall in Erie – a 50-foot structure.

Initially scheduled to participate in the 2009 AFL, Strieby was instead forced to undergo a surgical procedure to remove a bone from his hand. He had been experiencing discomfort in the wrist that he had his hamate bone removed from in 2008. Considering the loss of power associated with hamate bone removal and Strieby’s continued problems with the wrist, his power numbers are remarkable.

Erie is a home-run friendly park and Strieby’s numbers reflect that. Of his 19 home runs last season, 15 came at home. He’s been a below-average contact hitter over the course of his career. And his high fly-ball rates will likely lead to a lot of outs. Strieby was given a shot in left field last season, the results of which Underhill describes as comical, “With his awkward feet and lack of instincts, Strieby looked like a poor man’s Chris Duncan out there,” Underhill added.

            Strieby doesn’t get a lot of top prospect recognition but he could go on to have a good MLB career. He’s one of our favorite sleeper first base prospects in the minors. Strieby may have a little Richie Sexson in him. He uses the whole field and was a consistent masher last season. He’s getting a little old for the minors, but he could be a guy who “comes out of nowhere” in 2010.

 

Matthew Sweeney

Missed all of ’08 (ankle injury); limited in ’09 (hip injury)

He hit 9 of his 7 HR at home last year

Rancho Cucamonga favored pitchers from ’06-’08 (source: BTF)

Traded to TB with Sean Rodriguez and Alex Torres for Scott Kazmir

 

Sweeney has been flying under the radar for a few years due to injuries. When healthy, his bull-like strength lets him crush the ball. Swinging with bad intentions – in a good way – Sweeney has a simple, aggressive hack. He stays balanced and has very good leverage in his lower half. He can hammer mistakes up, and punishes fastballs that catch too much plate. Sweeney has big power to all fields and can really turn on inside pitches.

While he does let it fly, Sweeney’s swing might not be quick enough to allow him to hit for high averages. He was a poor line-drive hitter last year. His value is tied to his bat, and will be the only way he gets to the bigs. Sweeney walked in just 5.0% of his 121 road plate appearances and managed to draw free passes in 16.7% of his home plate appearances last season. He also hit for far more power at home than on the road, even though Rancho Cucamonga has not been an hitter’s park historically. Sweeney has hit for more power against righties than lefties throughout his career. He may not offer much defensive value. He’s spent time at third base – split between third and DH last year – but his body type and stiff hands don’t play well at the position. Sweeney has shown little speed on the base paths over his two years in full-season leagues.

Sweeney’s power and patience make him an intriguing bat. He should make the jump to Double-A in 2010. If he can stay healthy and proves to be a patient hitter, he could be a solid power hitting first baseman or designated hitter. If not, he may only become a power bat off the bench.

 

Jose Tabata

We’d make bets on when Tabata would K at the AFL

The person who bet that he wouldn’t always won

Over 138 AFL PA: 7.2% BB, 9.4% K, .392/.448/.517 line

Some scouts question Tabata’s desire to work to get better

 

          Tabata shows similar upper body actions and the same laid back demeanor as Manny Ramirez. But Tabata doesn’t have Manny’s bat speed or power. He does, however, possess standout contact ability – we one of the best contact hitters we got to see at the Arizona Fall League. Tabata stays balanced and is short and quick to the ball. He takes his hands directly to the ball with little stride. Using a quick toe-tap for timing, Tabata remains loose in his set up and raises his rear elbow slightly in his load for some extra upper body giddy-up – a la Ramirez. He employs good aggression upon launch. 

He gets in trouble when his leg kick gets too high, causing him to shift too early, especially when a pitcher effectively mixes speeds. He has the bat speed to hit for decent power, but his approach seems tailored more towards making contact, unlike Ramirez who is all business when he swings. You may not believe it by looking at his thick build, but we had Tabata as a plus runner at the AFL. He has the range and above-arm to be a good right outfielder. He may even be able to play average defense in center right now.

Tabata has a flat line drive stroke, and makes solid contact when he squares it. He hasn’t proven to be much of a power hitter, seeming to prefer to pepper line drives over swinging for the fences. His true age has come into question lately. Regardless of age, he has some upside. His ceiling is limited by his lack of power, but Tabata is near MLB-ready and could become an average regular.

 

Donavan Tate

Some scouts already view him as a plus defensive center fielder

Generates impressive raw power despite an upper-body driven swing

Good instinctive athlete, plus runner, quick out of the box

His dad, Lars, was a NFL running back

 

The San Diego Padres eschewed their conservative draft philosophy by taking one of the highest risk/highest reward talents in the 2009 draft in Donavan Tate. Tate ranked as one of the best high school athletes in the country, recruited by USC, Michigan, and Alabama, among others, to play football. Many viewed Tate as a difficult sign and he eventually committed to North Carolina to play both baseball and football. But the Padres offered up the biggest amateur bonus in team history to get him signed.

While his football time commitments have possibly led to Tate being raw at the plate, his defensive value raises his prospect floor to an acceptable level. A plus-plus pure runner, Tate has the natural range to be an asset in centerfield. His arm is another plus tool, bordering on a 65 grade; the former high school quarterback should be able to gun down opposing runners.

At the plate, Tate's athleticism shines through. His hips and hands are quick and generate good bat speed. Tate's natural strength combined with his bat speed lead to above-average raw power. He has almost no stride in his swing, utilizing a knee-bend timing mechanism. His weight shift is quick but he keeps a good deal of weight on his back foot through contact. Possibly due to his lack of stride, Tate leaks heavily off his front side. He wraps his bat slightly before he starts his swing. Prep pitchers discovered that he’s a sucker for high fastballs. He loves them but typically can’t catch up to them. He's definitely raw but he has hitter's hands and explosive actions.

The biggest thing holding Tate back is a lack of experience and track record. The upside is there for him to become an above-average big league, but even in the best case scenario, it would take several years for him to reach that potential. His defensive abilities are a big plus and a large reason why he made our 2010 top 100 prospect list. He could become one of the premier defenders in all of baseball. Tate’s ability to hit against high-level pitching his will remain a question until he's given a chance to answer it. Some of his doubters wonder if the Padres bought out a high-upside, tough sign largely as a public relations move to win over a fan base. The organization had established a reputation for drafting injury-plagued pitchers and low-upside college hitters. Tate’s biggest believers compare his upside to Carlos Beltran’s.

 

 

Michael Taylor

Was 0.74 deviations better than the Eastern League average K%

Phillies dealt him to Toronto as a part of the Roy Halladay deal

Traded from TOR to OAK for Brett Wallace (never played for TOR)

Improved his wOBA from .344 as a freshman to .416 as a junior

 

Aided by a statuesque build, Taylor generated some buzz as a potential top 50 overall draft pick during his time at Stanford. But he didn’t figure things out in time for that. He topped out at a .416 wOBA as a junior and walked infrequently (6.6%). His pro career has been a different story. Taylor’s Low-A (2008) and Triple-A (2009) power, contact and walk rates are very similar – players rarely transition as well as he has to the upper minors. And his 9.3% pro walk rate is much better than his college rate.

A beast of a man, Taylor has limitless power and a big-league eye. He’s tough to strike out because of his balance and great pitch recognition. Taylor likes to attack the baseball. He’ll drive fastballs into both gaps and he uses the opposite field well on off-speed pitches. While he has good bat speed and has learned to incorporate his lower half into his swing as a pro, he still swings mostly with his upper body. His bat speed and barrel control could be improved with a more active lower half – kind of scary when you think about it. With a surprisingly quick first step, Taylor is a bit of a base-stealing threat. He runs well for someone his size. Taylor has primarily played left field in the minors and should be a solid defensive outfielder. His arm is accurate but he has a slow release and doesn’t get much behind his throws.

The amount of progress Taylor has made at the plate is remarkable. There could be even more untapped potential in there. He has a high floor and the ceiling to turn into an above-average hitter. There’s a chance Taylor could open 2010 with a starting job in the majors.

 

Junichi Tazawa

Opted to start career in the US rather than in Japan

Walked just one of the 99 batters he faced last July

Struck out 6 or fewer batters in every outing from last June on

Made his MLB debut on August 7, 2009

 

            Combining strong command with a deceptive delivery and advanced feel for pitching, Tazawa proved polished, as promised in 2009, making his MLB debut in his first full season. His strikeout rates dropped mightily from Double-A to the bigs, but his command was steady. Tazawa’s 89-92 MPH fastball may not be more than an average pitch, but he hides it will and it has some late life. His best offering is a hammer curveball that he’ll throw in any count. Just when you think it’s too high, it drops down for a strike. He’s able to use it to get a lot of looking strikes, bringing it in at a variety of speeds (69-77), some of which even look like sliders. Rather than throwing a traditional changeup, Tazawa features a decent forkball/splitter against lefties.

            In order to be successful, Tazawa must hit his spots and mix his pitches well. His fastball becomes pretty hittable if he’s not sharp with it. Big league hitters had no problem getting the ball in the air against him. While he does a good job of keeping his forkball down, it doesn’t move much and we don’t see it as more than an average pitch. We don’t see any red flags with Tazawa’s mechanics. He repeats his delivery well and keeps a good tempo. Tazawa’s deception comes from a quick arm and him waving his glove hand in front of him before he fires through.

            Tazawa is a deceptive strike thrower who’s likely to have a solid MLB career. We’re not enamored with his fastball or forkball, but both play up because of an above-average curveball. It’s promising that Tazawa was able to start off well in his first professional season. He’s an impressive athlete who may emerge as a slightly-above-average big league starter.

 

Julio Teheran

Raw and undeveloped wild card of a pitching prospect with big upside

Struck out 7 while walking 1 and giving up 0 hits over 7 IP on 9/2/09

Has the frame to add another 30 pounds once he matures

Arm action is visibly slower when he throws his changeup

 

Blessed with an elite fastball he can already dial into the mid-90s, Teheran has off-the-charts projection. At an lean 6-foot 2, he has a chance to sniff triple digits as he fills out his frame. From a three quarter delivery, Teheran’s arm action is nothing less than electric. He has less than one hundred professional innings under his belt and impressively already has feel for both his curveball and changeup. Teheran simply needs time to work out the kinks.

Though his fastball is already a good pitch, it lacks movement at the upper range of his velocity. Teheran’s secondary offerings lag significantly behind his fastball. His curveball lacks bite, and he lets up on his changeup. Already having missed a significant amount of time over the first year of his pro career due to nagging injuries, Teheran has a slight frame that’s still cause for concern. He was limited to just six starts in 2008 due to shoulder tendinitis. Teheran collected most of his professional innings total in 2009. It’s not a lock that he’ll be able to reach his projected innings limit of 125 this year. His lower-body mechanics remind us a little of Neftali Feliz’s.

Teheran enters the 2010 season as an industry consensus top 100 prospect. He should open up the 2010 season back in Rome with an opportunity to finish the campaign in Myrtle Beach. A full season’s worth of innings could catapult him into top 25 prospect consideration in all of baseball.  However, his high ceiling is countered by an equally low floor, which many people chose to overlook. Teheran’s upside is as a top-of-the-rotation starter. If he can’t prove durable enough to handle a starter’s workload, he could be a dominant bullpen arm.

 

 

Mike Trout

Walked in 5.7% of his August 106 PA after 14.8% in July (81 PA)

Scouting Director Eddie Bane told MLB.com he’s a terrific athlete

Some scouts say his ceiling is among the highest in the ’10 draft class

Yes, he enjoys fishing

 

Trout didn't get to see much game action last spring, due to poor weather in the Northeast, but he drew heavy praise from scouts when he did take the field. One of the fastest risers in the 2009 draft, Trout displays an intriguing combination of polish and potential. While his arm strength is below-average, he’s a well-above-average runner with tremendous instincts – on the bases and in the field. He has the potential to be a very good defensive center fielder and at the very least shouldn’t be forced to move off the position any time soon.

Despite the relative lack of experience that Northeast prospects get compared to their southern and western brethren, Trout receives praise for his seasoned approach at the plate. His Arizona Rookie League walk rate was solid for a young hitter. Trout's swing shows his inexperience and could use some cleaning up. He wraps his bat pretty severely and leaks out on his front side. His hips are lightning quick. Trout has a very strong upper body, but relies too much on it in his swing. His swing path is geared towards contact. Despite his quick hands and natural strength, it's hard to see much power in there with his current swing.

The common refrain from scouts regarding Trout around draft time was his outstanding makeup. He's a baseball rat who seems to live for the game. We generally don't like to comment on player's personalities, since it's a much more complex issue than people sometimes give credit, but the praise of Trout was so universal, we feel it bears mention. Players like that tend to maximize their ability. 

Trout's upside is a very good defender at a premium position and above-average hitter. Think peak Aaron Rowand with the possibility for more power if everything breaks right. He is, however, still very young and his swing needs some work. Trout is far from a sure thing, but if you believe strongly in the character, he becomes less risky.

 

 

Jacob Turner

Committed to UNC before signing with DET; 2nd choice was Vanderbilt

Good hand speed and rotation help give him his curveball depth

His fastball has good movement/velocity and he commands it well

Planned to major in business at UNC

 

Jacob Turner created a lot of buzz entering the June 2009 as one of the draft's premier power arms. He’d been on the prospect radar for a decent amount of time, too. The Missouri prepster committed to UNC after his junior year in high school. He also faced off against Zack Wheeler as the West’s starting pitcher in the 2008 Aflac All-American game. His fastball sat 94-96 MPH for most of the spring, touching 98 MPH with a late cutting action. While Turner's secondary offerings lag behind his precocious fastball – you don't really need much else if you're throwing 96 MPH in high school – his curveball flashes plus break with good depth and he maintains his arm speed well on his changeup. 

Turner has an athletic, lanky 'pitcher's build' and terrific arm speed, however his mechanics are a little rough. He separates his hands low and has unnecessary length in his arm action – takes the ball well behind his back while keeping it low during his scap load. His arm path results in late forearm turnover, but his arm is so quick that the associated timing problems are somewhat minimized. His arm action is similar to that of Jarrod Parker, though Parker's timing problem is bit worse. Turner's stride leg lands closed and a bit stiffly, which can reduce hip rotation – although hip rotation is a source of velocity and Turner's velocity is the best thing about him. He releases the ball from a very low 3/4 arm angle, which isn't good for elbow health but, adds movement to his plus-plus fastball. Right handers are going to have a very difficult time picking up the ball out of his hand. Turner really flexes his torso down as he throws, which make his release point closer to home than a pitcher who stays more upright. This motion allows him to increase his functional velocity.

The Tigers tend to challenge their pitching prospects aggressively – Rick Porcello made his pro debut in High-A and opened his second season in the bigs; Jeremy Bonderman skipped from High-A to the bigs to make MLB debut, too. Detroit’s rotation has had an average age under 30 in each of the past 15 seasons. But Turner still needs some seasoning. Like just about every prep pitcher, his command is no better than average at this point and his off-speed stuff will need to improve. Still, his upside rivals any pitcher from his draft class (Non-Strasburg Division).

 

Brett Wallace

12.70% HR/air with Sac was 3rd in PCL (min. 200 PA; max age 23)

Springfield, his ’09 AA park, is one of MiLB’s most HR-friendly

Traded from St. Louis to Oakland as part of the Matt Holliday deal

Traded to Toronto for the recently acquired Michael Taylor

 

Wallace showed an advanced approach in his full-season debut. He has a quick, compact swing and good rhythm and timing. Wallace does an excellent job staying back and loaded on his rear leg. This allows him to maintain good balance and, paired with his quick hands, cover the strike zone well. He has a good eye, pretty swing and easy power. The Arizona State product has some weaknesses at the plate, though. He prematurely drops his rear shoulder, disrupting the tightness of his upper body unload to the ball. Additionally, he was well below the average Triple-A walk rate. He’s also hit a lot of ground balls in all four of his minor league stops. Wallace’s days as a third baseman should be over. His tree trunk legs make him too slow for the position. He could be an elite defensive first baseman, though.

Very few hitters can do damage in Triple-A one year removed from college. Wallace clearly has a future as a big leaguer. He’s also an extremely hard worker. But when you factor in his lack of defensive value, he’ll need to hit a lot to become an above-average big leaguer. Though the ball jumps off his barrel with line-drive gap power, his offensive ceiling may be lower than some argue. Still, it’s not unrealistic to bank on him turning into at least an average big-league hitter. We don’t see him becoming more than slightly above-average overall.

 

Jemile Weeks

Slowed by hip flexor and hamstring injuries over last two years

Over 104 AFL PA: 9.6% BB, 15.4% K, .241/.323/.437 line

Walk rate fell from 11.3% in A+ to 8.2% in AA

Can get a little pull-happy; below-average power hitter overall

 

          Weeks is a little man with a big swing. He holds his hands high in both his right and left side set up and is devoid of any discernable rhythm. He is not overly strong or big, but does have solid quick twitch strength and solid bat speed once his swing is under way. He stays tall, lets the ball get deep in the zone and has good pitch recognition.

His bat speed is, however, late developing because of how hard he swings. Weeks prepares to take a mighty hack before he attempts to launch his swing, which tenses his upper body, causing him to tie himself up – also compounded with how close he holds his hands to his body and head. Since he is overly tense, he doesn’t give himself much of a chance to create any early bat speed. All this hinders his ability to unleash his natural talent and athleticism. Weeks uses a modified toe-tap where he pauses after his first tap back to load his rear quad, which is a bit different than loading his rear hip. He has a bit of an early shift problem, but he holds his upper body together well and doesn’t leak energy there. While Weeks is an above-average runner with agility, his arm didn’t impress us when we saw him at the AFL. He also didn’t strike us as quite the sure-handed defender who you want to have the ball hit to at second.

Weeks could turn into a solid big leaguer. Speedy middle infielders with solid contact rates tend to stick around for a while, and with some tension removal, Weeks could even turn into a slightly above-average offensive major league second baseman.

 

Nick Weglarz

Removed from AFL before he played a game (stress fracture in shin)

Played with the injury during ’09 season; ultimately required surgery

His BB% was 2.39 deviations above the Eastern League average

His 2009 BABIP was 74 points below his 2008 BABIP

 

Nick Weglarz oozes potential with his mix of size, strength, and plus power, but injuries hampered him during the 2009 season. His power and patience from the left side have brought comparisons to a former Indians star, Jim Thome, though there are contrasts between their two swings. Weglarz stays tall and does a good job of gathering himself over his rear leg. But his load and path to the ball are inefficient, as he pushes down to load before pushing with his top hand to deliver the barrel.

Weglarz was drafted as a 1st baseman, but has played left field almost exclusively in pro ball. He’s a slightly below-average runner but has an adequate arm and enough athleticism to be playable in left. At 240 pounds and growing, Weglarz still could wind up back at first base, where he could be an average or better defender. In contrast with his 2008 approach, Weglarz has dropped his hands down and back a bit in his set up, making him have a smaller and less efficient load. This has tied his long arms up, and since he has calmed down his rhythm, Weglarz has begun to almost fight himself to swing. His actions are a little stiff and deliberate now and his best swings come when he is free and easy with some rhythm to gather himself and attack.

Born in Canada, Weglarz’s is slightly behind the curve of his peers in terms of development. Still, he’s already a walk machine and does an outstanding job at working the count. If he can free his upper body up and learn to whip from behind him – where he differs from Thome – Weglarz could become a 35 home run threat. He’s a mammoth human who could have a bustout 2010 season. The glove won’t have much value but his bat has too much potential to overlook. Expect Weglarz’ batting average on balls in play jump 40 points in 2010. Once he gets back to a batting average closer to .275 then .225, more mainstream prospect fans will celebrate him.

 

Ryan Westmoreland

Quick-twitch athlete who uses his hands well and has solid strength

Hit 0 HR last June (47 PA), 6 in July (114) and and 1 in August (106)

Was 19-for-19 in stolen base attempts during the 2009 season

Didn’t play OF for 1st year of pro career (surgery to repair torn labrum)

 

Westmoreland disproved theories that he did not actually exist by playing 60 games for Low-A Lowell before another freak injury ended his season prematurely. The toolsy outfielder showed impressive polish in his professional debut, controlling the strike zone exceptionally well for a player with so little experience. Westmoreland lasted until the last pick of the fifth round in 2008, as teams shied away from his commitment to Vanderbilt and commensurately high signing bonus. The Red Sox used their financial advantage to acquire the local New Englander, paying a high price for a high ceiling player. A tremendous all-around athlete, Westmoreland combines plus speed and power with a strong arm (before a 2008 labrum injury) and natural hitting ability. He has begun to fill out physically, as he looks taller than his listed 6-foot-2 and, while still rather lanky, has added muscle mass from his near string bean high-school days. 

Westmoreland stands tall at the plate with a slightly open stance. He improved his balance at the plate this season –had a tendency to hit off his front foot as a prepster – and flashed impressive power for a teenager. Westmoreland keeps his hands high, creating some leverage, and has the hip rotation and quick wrists to potentially hit 30 home runs as season as he fills out. A true plus runner, Westmoreland was an outstanding 19-for-19 on stolen base attempts. And while injuries have left his defensive prowess mostly unseen, he has the physical ability to be an asset in center. His injuries, the labrum in 2008 and broken collarbone last season (ran into the outfield wall), are a concern but neither are chronic and should not affect his long-term value.

While it's generally a good idea not to get too worked up about a sample size this small, five-tool talents with 14% walk rates don't grow on trees. It will likely be several more seasons before Boston fans get see Westmoreland in Fenway, but there's a chance he's a superstar when he finally gets there.

 

Zach Wheeler

Relies largely on his FB; rarely used secondary when we saw him

Even with his sinking FB, may not be an extreme-ground-ball pitcher

Some scouts call his breaking ball a sluve, some call it a slider

Wheeler told The Baseball Analysts that he throws two curveballs

 

Wheeler was one of the top power pitching prospects in a very deep 2009 Draft class. He lives off his fastball – features both the two-seam and four-seam offerings. He often uses his four-seamer up in the zone. It sits 94-95 MPH with decent late life. He’ll attack hitters down in the zone with his 90-92 MPH two-seam fastball, which has outstanding sink and arm-side run. Wheeler’s slider is deep and slurvey. The offering is inconsistent but may already be an average offering and projects to be an out-pitch. It’s especially tough on right handed hitters and plays up because it looks similar to his sinking two-seamer. There’s a chance that Wheeler’s changeup and curveball could also become average or better pitches.

Wheeler's throwing motion is a bit unorthodox, but it works well for him. He makes the dreaded Inverted W during his load phase, prior to footplant. But he’s one of the longester-striding pitching prospects in all of baseball. The extra time that his elongated stride offers gives Wheeler's pitching arm time to get the ball up to driveline at footplant. Wheeler releases the ball from a low 3/4 arm angle but seems to pronate very well – the outstanding fastball movement is a pleasant byproduct of his pronation. It tends to take guy with Wheeler’s kind of velocity and movement a while to fully develop their command. And Wheeler's command is below-average at this point – like most prep pitching prospects – though it should improve with experience. His off-speed stuff needs some work, but his arm strength gives him top-of-the-rotation upside.

Not exactly endearing himself to Giants fans, Wheeler showed an embarrassing lack of knowledge about the organization during an interview with MLB Network after he was selected. He may not be a brain child, but we haven’t heard any poor reviews of his baseball aptitude.

Ranked as a consensus top 15 overall draft talent by Jonathan Mayo, PG Crosschecker, Baseball America and us, Wheeler is one of the most promising prep arms from the 2009 draft class. His power arsenal should allow him to miss a lot of bats in the minors. It might be three or four years before you see Wheeler as a MLB starter, but once he gets there he could be a very strong No. 2.

 

Chris Withrow

Has the velo and curveball to retire MLB hitters now

Very athletic, but he’s more of a thrower than a pitcher

Walked 9.5% in August after 12.1% in April-July

Finished strong by striking out 8-of-19 in his final outing of 2009

 

A power right hander, Withrow signed late and appeared in just 11 games in 2007. Expectations were high for his full-season debut but a bizarre off-season accident derailed those hopes. Withrow was, apparently, at the beach when he spotted a piece of scuba equipment, bent down to pick it up and cut his hand severely. He then had problems getting his arm strength back, after the cut forced him to rest his arm, and only managed four innings of work. Despite such a limited track record and a full year of development lost, Withrow made it to Double-A as a 20-year-old and showed strong strikeout rates. His fastball will flash high 90's but sits 92-95 mph with solid glove-side run. Some see plus potential in his curveball and reports were encouraging about the progress his changeup made last year.

Both of his off-speed offerings are inconsistent and currently rate below-average, despite strong potential. Withrow's actions are very smooth. The ball jumps out of his hand. The fluidity of his actions should’nt be confused with sound mechanics. The length of his arm action is OK, but he picks the ball up very late in his delivery. As a result, he has a significant timing problem. The ball is near shoulder height at footplant/shoulder rotation. Perhaps more worrisome is that fact that he doesn’t appear to pronate on any of his pitches. His unusual delivery may lead to his poor command. Withrow also appears to almost lose all control versus left handed hitters.

Withrow’s upside rivals virtually any pitcher in the minors, but unfortunately he appears a poor bet to ultimately reach his potential. His command is a significant concern and he has two mechanical red flags that could lead to injury. Withrow is the type of guy that every organization wants 100 of in their system, but that’s because only one or two of those 100 will fully pay off.

 

Eric Young Jr.

Broke his leg playing football his junior year in HS

Was 2.17 deviations above the PCL average GB% last year

Has 104 steals over the last 2 seasons – only 77.6% success, though

Was a draft-and-follow pick out of Chandler-Gilbert CC in AZ

 

Being the son of a former Major Leaguer is enough to make most kids smile for days. But Eric Young Jr. wants to make his own mark on the baseball world, and his game-changing speed and quick bat might allow him to do that. He’s not big but has surprising strength and very good swing quickness from both sides of the plate. His lefthanded swing is his more powerful one, but his right handed swing is a very solid punch swing. Young has outrageous speed on the base paths and if he knocks one in a gap, he might never stop running.

Last season, the Rockies used Young at second base as well as center field, but he has yet to show that he’s an above-average defender at any position. He primarily played second base in the minors. His arm is not an asset, and his fielding needs polish. When we saw him at second base last year, he looked solid overall – turned double plays without trouble, showed decent hands, agile footwork and good range. While his speed would be an asset in the outfield, his lack of power might offset his ability to cover half the state of Colorado in four steps. He is strong for his size, but doesn’t have 20 home run potential. His quick stroke should lead to healthy line drive rates. And his speed will allow him to not only beat out infield hits but force defenders to rush as well.

Young’s minor league numbers have been consistent at every stop; no outrageous spikes or concerning drop offs, just never ending solid production. Helped by his ability to let the ball get very deep in the strike zone, he is adept at drawing walks. Young knows how to take advantage of counts in his favor, but his game is line drives and speed. If he can stay at second base, he could offer the same offensive value as his sparkplug father once did.