Editor's note: This report has been updated since it was initially published to infuse information from Duffy's May 13th Triple-A start into what we saw from him on March 23rd, 2011.
Danny Duffy didn't wow some of our scouts when they saw him last fall, but he looked amazing when I saw him this spring.
Lean and athletic, Duffy is set to make his MLB debut today. He was the most impressive pitcher I scouted this spring.
Fastball
Regularly coming in at 91-94 MPH, Duffy's fastball touches 95-96 MPH with a bit of late tail. When he's on, he can toy with hitters by locating it on the black on both sides of the plate. He likes to pitch outside with it.
The pitch has fairly consistent movement, though it straightens out at times. It lacks sink and he will leave it up in the zone, something that he's gotten away with a little in the minors due to his ability to command it. It's clear that he is making an effort to pitch down in the zone this season, but he's struggled doing so. He tends to release the pitch too late, miss low, then appear shaken that he isn't able to throw it for a strike. He over-throws it. Pitching up and on the corners is clearly his comfort zone. He also loses movement when he keeps it down.
Duffy has no hesitations when it comes to slowing down a bit and trying to prioritize location over velo. He likes to steal strikes on the outside corner and will nibble at times.
Despite his velocity, he will get hit when he leaves his fastball up in the zone. His movement may also lend itself to finding barrels and getting elevated at times. Overwhelmed by his arsenal, more than a few minor league hitters have flailed at his fastball, eager to offer at it over his advanced secondary. He could get pretty off-speed heavy in the bigs if he doesn't bring his best fastball command, as the big boys aren't going to swing through his fastball regularly. Because he doesn't have a lot of deception, I see his fastball, despite his velocity and him coming from the left side, as slightly-above-average, opposed to plus.
Curveball
Duffy's curveball is one of the better lefthanded breaking balls I've seen from a prospect in person. It's a sharp near-12-to-6 downer with late tumble that he can command in the zone. He'll sneak it over in the low-80s for first-pitch strikes as well as buckle knees in the 74-76 MPH range for called third strikes. What's more, he knows the pitch is good enough that he can throw it consecutively and still keep hitters off balance. Like his fastball, Duffy will need to learn to command his curveball better down in the zone. When he's hitting his spots, it's an above-average, swing-and-miss offering.
Changeup
Given that his curveball can be a swing-and-miss pitch and his ability to command his low-to-mid-90s fastball on the corners, Duffy is able to craftily mix in his 80-83 MPH changeup and occationally make hitters look silly. The pitch comes in looking like a fastball then tails slightly (away from righties) and drops as it gets close to the plate. He throws it with good arm speed and confidence. Like his curveball, Duffy's changeup is good enough that he can throw it to a guy 2-3 times in the same at-bat. And similar to his fastball, he likes to throw it on the outer half of the plate, which can make it a really tough pitch on righties. He also commands his changeup well. He's able to get swing-throughs with it when he locates is down in the zone. It's an above-average offering and may be his best pitch.
Mechanics/Pick-off move
Duffy throws from a high-3/4 arm slot. He generates energy through good seperation and a powerful core. Balanced, he repeats his delivery well and does a good job maintaining his arm slot for each of his pitches. I don't see any red flags in his mechanics. Though he has very good stuff, Duffy doesn't offer a lot of deception. His tempo wasn't particularly quick when I saw him this spring and he didn't hide the ball well, though he appears to have upped his tempo since the regular season started.
His pickoff move is nothing special. He doesn't like to make quick, hard throws to first or second. He does, however, do a good job keeping runners at bay by varying his timing and giving long looks over to first to freeze runners.
Overall
I see Duffy as a pretty good bet to stick in the big leagues and there's a chance that he hits the ground running. He has the arsenal to be a No. 2 starter -- can throw strikes with three above-average pitches. Big league hitters will quickly figure out that he tries to get a little too cute at times, nibbling on the outside corner with his fastball and getting too much of the plate with his curveball. He has a deep enough arsenal that he'll be able to carve up guys who cheat on his fastball or expand the zone. Patient hitters may be able to take him to the opposite field or wait on a high fastball that they can drive out of the park. He leaves pitches up a bit much for my liking.
Though Duffy is one of the most polished pitching prospects in baseball, he may become homer prone. Still, I see him as a pretty good bet to eventually surface as at least a reliable No. 3 starter. If he can stay sharp with his fastball, he may be able to go deep into games and develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter. There's also going to be the question about how many innings he can handle in 2011, as he threw very few innings in 2010 after deciding to walk away from the game for a little while.
When it comes to big-league-ready guys, like Duffy, who have Triple-A experience, I tend to be a lot more critical of their abilities than pitchers in the low minors. He has an advanced arsenal that has proven to be too much for minor league hitters. Though he lost some development time last season, he knows how to pitch and has the stuff to become an above-average MLB pitcher.
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some while they're still cheap.