Battle of the 2010 Top 100s

October 31, 2011
... 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010
Battle of the 2010 Top 100s
Rk   Publisher   aWAR   Comments   Primary Voice(s)
1   Project Prospect   174.8   Only list with Alex Avila; strayed from pack and had solid picks   Carter, Foster, Hamilton
2   AOL   154.0   Did an excellent job in top 20; got sleepers in Minor & Kimbrel   Frankie Piliere
3   Baseball America   132.2   Low risk/reward list didn't identify any sleepers but was solid   Callis, Lingo, Manuel
4   Baseball Prospectus   130.9   Best pick was Walden; emphasis on young arms is a handicap   Kevin Goldstein
5   ESPN   126.1   Sleeper call on Hosmer could put Law ahead of BP next year   Keith Law
* aWAR is an adjusted WAR value (see methodology below for more info)    
Methodology: Each list was given weighted WAR values based on how high or low it ranked players (starting at 150% for
its No. 1 prospect and dropping to 51% for its No. 100. Players who appeared on only one list gained an added 50% WAR
multiplier. Players who appeared on every list but one had their value (with an added 50% WAR multiplier) subtracted 
from that list's total value. Email for a copy of my spreadsheet with the data used.
Most Valuable Sleeper Picks to Date
Rk   Player   WAR   Comments   Ranked solely by
1   Alex Avila   7.1   Had breakout year (.383 wOBA) while playing passable D at C   Project Prospect
2   Jon Niese   5.1   Only 157.0 IP in 2011 but he was quality No. 2 when healthy   Project Prospect
3   Danny Espinosa   4.1   Hit a little & played average defense as a 24-year-old regular   Project Prospect
4   Craig Kimbrel   3.7   Easily led all MLB relievers in 2011 with 127 K (and in 77.0 IP)   Frankie Piliere
5   Ian Desmond   3.2   Has been slightly better than replacement level in 1,000+ PA   Project Prospect
6   Jonathan Lucroy   2.8   Started hot, finished cold; may be a platoon catcher long-term   Project Prospect
7   Jordan Walden   2.1   Tied for 12th among rookie RP in Ks with 67; 2nd in saves   Baseball Prospectus
8   Jemile Weeks   2.0   Inconsistent defender w/ gap power who made lots of contact   Project Prospect
9   Mike Minor   2.0   4th-lowest FIP among rookie SP; split year between AAA/MLB   Frankie Piliere
10   Carlos Carrasco   1.7   Made fewer mistake pitches in '11 than '10 but Ks dropped   Project Prospect
Biggest Omissions to Date
Rk   Player   WAR   Comments   Omitted solely by
1   Daniel Hudson   7.2   Pitched like a No. 1/2 SP; not a big K guy; excellent command   ESPN
2   Jhoulys Chacin   5.6   GB artist with swing-through stuff & ace upside but high BB%   Baseball Prospectus
3   Jose Tabata   3.1   Broken hand ended lackluster season early; limited power   Baseball America
4   Ben Revere   1.8   80 Speed CF has 20 power but elite contact skills and defense   Project Prospect
5   Ryan Kalish   0.6   A shoulder injury kept him out for most of the 2011 season   Baseball America
Highest Ranked Prospects Who Have 0 WAR
Rk   Player   Ave. Rk   Comments   Ranked highest by
1 Martin Perez   14.8   Finshed '11 in AAA, where his K% steadily climbed over 49.0 IP   ESPN (7)
2 Chris Carter   24.6   Stock has taken a huge hit; poor defensive 1B who Ks too much Baseball Prospectus (11)
3 Michael Taylor   24.8   Stock has taken a huge hit; poor defensive OF w/ limited pow.   Project Prospect (13)
4 Casey Kelly   26.2   Logged solid AA season & will almost certainly be in bigs in '12   ESPN (18)
5 Ryan Westmoreland   26.6   Cavernous brain malformation has kept him out of live action   Baseball Prospectus (14)
6 Aaron Hicks   30.8   Keeps walking, hitting for limited power and playing a good CF ESPN/BA (19)
7 Derek Norris   32.6   Fresh off a big power season; good chance to reach bigs in '12   Baseball Prospectus (28)
8 Christian Friedrich   38.2   Elbow injury in 2010 & poor 2nd half in 2011; best bet as a RP?   Frankie Piliere (12)
9 Josh Bell   39.0   K prone 3B has played OK defense but he hasn't hit in the bigs   Project Prospect (16)
10 Tyler Matzek   43.0   Finally started finding his command in August after brutal year   ESPN (22)