Battle of the 2007 Top 100s

November 5, 2011
... 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010
Battle of the 2007 Top 100s
Rk   Publisher   aWAR   Comments   Primary Voice(s)
1   Baseball America   690.5   Good sleepers in Stubbs & Garcia; didn't have any huge misses   Callis, Lingo, Manuel
2   Project Prospect   652.2   Only list w/ Pedroia; Ubaldo miss is difference between PP & BA Adam Foster
3   Baseball Prospectus   598.2   Took many risks that haven't paid off; omitted some good talent   Kevin Goldstein
* aWAR is an adjusted WAR value (see methodology below for more info)    
Methodology: Each list was given weighted WAR values based on how high or low it ranked players (starting at 150% for
its No. 1 prospect and dropping to 51% for its No. 100. Players who appeared on only one list gained an added 50% WAR
multiplier. Players who appeared on every list but one had their value (with an added 50% WAR multiplier) subtracted 
from that list's total value. Email for a copy of my spreadsheet with the data used.
Most Valuable Sleeper Picks to Date
Rk   Player   WAR   Comments   Ranked soley by
1   Dustin Pedroia   25.7   Spent all of '06 in AAA; had 5.5% K rate but only 5 HR in 423 ab   Project Prospect
2   Johnny Cueto   8.2   Was dominant as a 20-year-old in Low-A in '06; good in A+ too   Project Prospect
3   Drew Stubbs   8.0   Toolsy CF out of University of Texas; the 8th overall pick in 2006   Baseball America
4   Jaime Garcia   6.4   Extreme GB pitcher in Low-A/High-A in '06; dominated Low-A   Baseball America
5   Edinson Volquez   5.3   Struggled with command in '06; Entered '07 with 46.0 MLB IP   Baseball Prospectus
6   Neftali Feliz   3.9   Struck out 42 in 29.0 rookie ball innings in '06; lots of walks too   Baseball Prospectus
7   Jeremy Hellickson   1.9   Absolutely owned '06 short-season competition; 96 K vs. 16 BB   Project Prospect
8   Matt Albers   1.7   Had good '06 as 23-year-old in AA; has now pitched for 3 orgs   Baseball America
9   Brian Barton   1.1   Old A+/AA player in '06 hasn't had a MLB at-bat since '08 w/ STL Baseball America
10   Anthony Swarzak   1.0   145.2 solid A+ IP as a 20-yr-old in '06; Low K & BB MLBer in '11   Project Prospect
Biggest Omissions to Date
Rk   Player   WAR   Comments   Omitted soley by
1   Ubaldo Jimenez   21.3   Was a AA/AAA SP with swing-&-miss stuff and lots of BB in '06   Project Prospect
2   Kurt Suzuki   11.0   BB > K & had good pop in AA in '06; should've been top 50 for all Baseball Prospectus
3   Kevin Kouzmanoff   10.8   25-yr-old with back problems and huge AA/AAA numbers in '06   Baseball America
4   Elvis Andrus   10.1   Pedestrian with the bat in '06; just very young SS with speed   Baseball Prospectus
5   Gio Gonzalez   7.3   11.4% BB was a concern, but was a 20-yr-old w/ 24.3% K in AA   Baseball Prospectus
6   Matt Harrison   5.5   Only  K'd 16.4% but was a 21-yr-old AA LHP w/ a 5.2% BB rate   Project Prospect
7   Neil Walker   4.7   Coming off wrist surgery in '05 had unimpressive numbers in '06   Baseball Prospectus
8   Sean Rodriguez   4.5   Annihilated the Cal League in '06, and did it as a 21-year-old   Baseball America
9   Daniel Bard   4.2   Well known to those who watch the CWS; 28th overall pick in '06 Baseball Prospectus
10   Glenn Perkins   3.9   A little old for his level in '06 (23 and in AA) but had 26.0% K rate   Project Prospect
Highest Ranked Prospects Who Have 0 WAR
Rk   Player   Ave. Rk   Comments   Ranked highest by
1 Brandon Wood   6.0   21-yr-old in AA in '06 w/ huge pwr & good walk rate but 28.5% K   Tied between PP & BP
2 Fernando Martinez   21.0   Injuries have slowed him; still only 23 & has upside at the plate   Baseball Prospectus
3 Adam Miller   23.0   Stud AA SP prospect in '06; reoccuring finger injury derailed him   Baseball Prospectus
4 Donald Veal   42.0   High BB LHP w/ tons of K between A/A+ in '06; had injury history Baseball Prospectus
5 Chuck Lofgren   43.7   LHP did well against A+ competition in '06; K fell in upper minors   Baseball Prospectus
6 Felix Pie   44.0   Good AAA in '06 given his age (21); 2011's least valuable player   Project Prospect
7 Jacob McGee   47.0   Huge K pitcher w/ high BB; had TJ in 2008; now a solid reliever   Baseball America
8 Brandon Erbe   49.3   Projectable 18-yr-old in Low-A in '06; injuries since & now a RP   Baseball Prospectus
9 Bill Rowell   51.3   Many were high on him coming out of HS in '06; 9th overall pick   Baseball America
10 Josh Fields   52.0   Near-MLB-ready 3B had shown K problems, which didn't go away Project Prospect
Top Performers by WAR
Rk   Player   WAR   Comments   Ranked highest by
1 Tim Lincecum   27.9   Ranked 6th (BP), 11th (BA), 25th (PP); beast of a SP in college   Baseball Prospectus
2 Evan Longoria   26.9   Ranked 7th (BA), 10th (BP), 15th (PP); undrafted in HS to 1st rd   Baseball America
3 Dustin Pedroia   25.7   Ranked 74th (PP); omitted by BA and BP; hadn't shown power   Project Prospect
4 Ryan Braun   25.2   Ranked 12th (BP), 18th (PP), 26th (BA); better in AA than A+   Baseball Prospectus
5 Troy Tulowitzki   24.5   Ranked 11th (PP), 15th (BA), 24th (BP); owned AA as 21-yr-old   Project Prospect
6 Joey Votto   22.8   Ranked 30th (PP), 43rd (BA), 53rd (BP); more #s than scouting   Project Prospect
7 Ublado Jimenez   21.3   Ranked 66th (BP) and 84th (BA); completely omitted by PP   Baseball Prospectus
8 Hunter Pence   19.3   Ranked 36th (PP), 38th (BA), 47th (BP); funky swing, elite #s   Project Prospect
9 Jacoby Ellsbury   17.3   Ranked 33rd (BA), 48th (BP), 50th (PP); no one expected 30 HR   Baseball America
10 Clayton Kershaw   17.1   Ranked 16th (BP), 24th (BA), 34th (PP); universally praised   Baseball Prospectus