Lincoln's First 2009 Draft Board

[The Q]

Not to mention the fact that the guy's value in Lincoln's system is almost solely based on speed,. yet he's a 55-60 runner.

[Oogie]

Lincoln,

I'm curious about a detailed evaluation of Rich Poythress. In your 2009 MLB Draft Board, you listed him at No. 26, and in your subsequent comments, he was labeled as one of the "all hit no defense guys" available. I was surprised to read that comment considering his 2008 Gold Glove Award and a fielding percentage, both last year and presently, of greater than .990. Moreover, Poythress is the University of Georgia first baseman, yet on your Draft Board, he was identified as a third baseman. Would you please go in depth about your feelings of Poythress as a future MLB middle infielder? Also, which of his strengths do you feel will improve his draft position? What weaknesses (if any) do you think will drive away MLB teams?

Thanks. I thoroughly enjoy your insight.

[LHamilton]

Not to mention the fact that the guy's value in Lincoln's system is almost solely based on speed,. yet he's a 55-60 runner.

Actually, his value based largely on his contact ability.

Lincoln,

I'm curious about a detailed evaluation of Rich Poythress. In your 2009 MLB Draft Board, you listed him at No. 26, and in your subsequent comments, he was labeled as one of the "all hit no defense guys" available. I was surprised to read that comment considering his 2008 Gold Glove Award and a fielding percentage, both last year and presently, of greater than .990. Moreover, Poythress is the University of Georgia first baseman, yet on your Draft Board, he was identified as a third baseman. Would you please go in depth about your feelings of Poythress as a future MLB middle infielder? Also, which of his strengths do you feel will improve his draft position? What weaknesses (if any) do you think will drive away MLB teams?

Thanks. I thoroughly enjoy your insight.

The more I look at Poythress the more I like him. Georgia was rumored to move him to third base this year...the draft board you refered you was done before the season actually started...so that's why I have him as a 3B - Georgia's offical site has him listed as a 1B/3B. I do think that his final position will be 1B in the pros. He's a poor runner and definately not a jeans model, so I worry about his defense long term. That said, I think the only thing that will knock him down the draft board for MLB teams is the fact that he's a 1B. Last year being the notable example, it's rare for first basemen to go in the first round. I think his bat is as promising as any in college ball, and should make him an above average regular in the majors.

[Mike Rogers]

Annnnd Lincoln beat me to looking at him.

I'm not Lincoln, but everywhere I see him around, he's listed as a 3B/1B player. 2008 he had 69 starts at 1st, but 2007 had 45 at 3rd. However, at 6'5" and listed at 245, I doubt he'll stay at 3rd and a middle infield position, to me, is out of the question. I mean, he could play up the middle because he has functioning legs and can walk, he would just most likely be as brutal as one could be defensively there. I think he's relegated to just 1st base in pro-ball which means his bat MUST carry him, and i think it will. I had him as the 4th best hitter in the SEC in 2008 behind only Gordon Beckham, Justin Smoak and Sawyer (Swain) Carroll. Beckham and Smoak were both 1st rounders and Carroll is a sleeper I like in the Padres system.

Poythress had slightly more walks than strikeouts last year and displayed prodigious power, posting an Isolated Power, by my adjusted numbers, that was good for 19th best in the SEC as a sophomore. And, relative to his peers in the SEC, I've got him at about 29 runs above the average hitter in the SEC -- all park and competition neutralized.

Haven't found many scouting reports yet on if he's Brett Wallace-esque -- looks and is big, but does have surprising athleticism -- so for now I'm just going to go by preconceived notions that someone his size probably isn't going to stick at 3rd or play well in the corners of the Outfield and that he's destined for 1B.

[The Q]

524.13 21.0 .360 442.0 9.60% 4.00% 432.72


The speed rating (432.72) is more than 80% of Pollack's score.

[LHamilton]

524.13 21.0 .360 442.0 9.60% 4.00% 432.72


The speed rating (432.72) is more than 80% of Pollack's score.

Not all parts are weighted evenly

[Prospect Insider]

Not sure I can really think much of a Top 15 without some mention of Missouri's Kyle Gibson, let alone a top 30.

He's no ace, but he's every bit as good as UNC's Alex White and without the risk of throwing 30% split-finger fastballs.

Ya gotta ask around and re-assess the rankings. Gibson is clearly and easily a top 30 prospect. Even the scouts that aren't on him admit that.

[LHamilton]

Not sure I can really think much of a Top 15 without some mention of Missouri's Kyle Gibson, let alone a top 30.

He's no ace, but he's every bit as good as UNC's Alex White and without the risk of throwing 30% split-finger fastballs.

Ya gotta ask around and re-assess the rankings. Gibson is clearly and easily a top 30 prospect. Even the scouts that aren't on him admit that.

I've never doubted that Gibson's a star in college and I definately don't doubt that most people would have him ranked highly. I have major reservations about his long term health...I don't think he can be counted on to make 30 starts year in and year out and I don't think his stuff lends itself to being a shut down late inning reliever.

If I see him again this year or see enough video on him that changes my feelings about his mechanics, I'll change where I have him rated. Until then, I think he's likely to be a bust in the pros.

[bkmhoxx]

I will be scouting Texas for 3 games this weekend.
Is there anything in particular that any of you would like me to look for?

[flscout]

This board is about a month old now, so not sure when it will be updated. When it is, Paxton, Skaggs, B. Jackson, Berry, t. Wheeler are all guys to look into.

[bkmhoxx]

Well since noone had much interest in any Texas players, I picked out the ones i already knew about.
Brandon Belt
Preston Clark
Kevin Keyes
Russell Moldenhauer
Chance Ruffin
Cameron Rupp
Tant Sheperd
Brandon Workman

[Oogie]

Hey fellas,

Can you weigh in on Kentrail Davis's progress (or lack thereof) lately? While I'm impressed that he's walked more than struck out (barely) thus far, everything else has been a dud over the last couple of weeks. I've also noticed the UT coaching staff has been moving him around the batting order, ostensibly to snap him out of his funk. Do you have any insight to offer about him? How much (if any) damage is his doing to his potential as a first-round pick?

[flscout]

This board is about a month old now, so not sure when it will be updated. When it is, Paxton, Skaggs, B. Jackson, Berry, t. Wheeler are all guys to look into.

And right on time, BA highlights Berry and Paxton on their draft tracker up today.