Scouting the 2009 Futures Game with Pitchf/x

[Mike Rogers]

All data is taken from Brooks Baseball and are MLB Gameday classifications, for the most part (some minor tweaks might be made on my own discretion). I am using the Pitch Flight template from Harry Pavlidis.

First up is Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles, LHP:



The Fastball (the blue line) -- Averaged 93.1 MPH and he threw 8 of them. I believe that they were all of the 4-seam variety and he comes from a high release point. These two things coupled together gave him a very straight heater in the futures game. That said, he gets good downward movement on it, or so it seems.

The Change-up (the orange line) -- Only threw 3 of them and averaged 83.1 MPH on them. His release point seems nearly identical and it comes from the same arm slot. I could see this pitch getting swings and misses given the velocity disparity and how much it looks like a fastball through it's first half of it's travel to home plate.

The Slider (the white line) -- Only threw 2 of these and averaged 83.6 MPH. Pretty much a 12-6 slider in his abbreviated outing. Again, consistent arm slot with his other pitches and follows the same path in terms of diving action as his change-up.

Due to the few pitches that Matusz threw, it's hard to make any hard and fast conclusions. This seems to back up all the reports I've read on him, but I do want to stress to not take anything in this as 100% fact or gospel -- it's far from it.

[Mike Rogers]

Due to the few pitches that Matusz threw, it's hard to make any hard and fast conclusions. This seems to back up all the reports I've read on him, but I do want to stress to not take anything in this as 100% fact or gospel -- it's far from it.

Brad Lincoln, Pittsburgh, RHP



The Fastball (the blue line) -- Averaged 94 MPH on the 12 heaters that he threw. Unlike Matusz, he's getting good tailing action on it, and he's coming from a slightly lower release point than the Oriole lefty, which is pretty obvious given Lincoln's just 5-foot-11. Thus, his fastball ended up lower in the zone as it crossed home plate.

The Curveball (the orange line) -- He only threw two of them and they were 81.3 and 81.8 MPH apiece. Full disclosure: i have no idea if it's indeed a slider or a curveball -- I'm thinking curve due to the hump in it, but many pitchers often mis-identify their own pitches (e.g. call it a slider yet it is actually a curveball or vice-versa). Whatever the breaking ball is, his two he threw came from a noticeably higher release point than his fastball. I'm guessing this is more a sample size issue than something to be worried about going forward. I like the sweep and the downward action of it. I like these two pitches out of the bullpen for the Pirates down the line.

[Mike Rogers]

Disclaimer: Due to the few pitches that Matusz threw, it's hard to make any hard and fast conclusions. This seems to back up all the reports I've read on him, but I do want to stress to not take anything in this as 100% fact or gospel -- it's far from it. Also, I did not get to see the game (and forgot to record it), so any help from anyone in regards to whether I'm wrong in someone throwing over the top or 3/4, would be helpful).

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies, RHP



The Fastball (the blue line) -- Threw 8 and averaged 92.1 MPH on it. He's a ground ball machine in the minors (GB%'s of 60, 66, 60, and 56 in his 4 stops). 6-foot-3 with good downward movement and decent tailing action on it.

The Change-up (the orange line) -- Threw just 4 of them and averaged 85.3 of them. Worth noting that all 4 change-up's were swinging strikes today. Very good diving action and not a lot of tailing action -- closer to a straight-change than a tailing-change-up.

The Slider (the white line) -- He threw 4 of these as well and averaged 81.1 MPH. Got good sweeping action on it and great diving action. I like this pitch, just judging on the average pitch flight. Note: gameday had 2 sliders and 2 curveballs. I put them together and labeled them sliders. I do not know if this is what he actually throws or if he has 2 breaking balls -- I am 100% open to classifying them differently. I think they're sliders, for what it's worth (and that's not worth much )

I did not get to see the game today, nor recorded it. I have seen videos of Chacin, but wanted to know what his motion looked like from the centerfield camera. Was he over the top or more 3/4? I'm guessing more 3/4.

Again, small sample size, limited data, possibly bad classifications.

[Mike Rogers]

Disclaimer: Due to the few pitches that Matusz threw, it's hard to make any hard and fast conclusions. This seems to back up all the reports I've read on him, but I do want to stress to not take anything in this as 100% fact or gospel -- it's far from it. Also, I did not get to see the game (and forgot to record it), so any help from anyone in regards to whether I'm wrong in someone throwing over the top or 3/4, would be helpful).

Kyle Drabek, Philadelphia Phillies, RHP



The Fastball (the blue line) -- Averaged 95.2 MPH on the 6 heaters he threw. Pretty good tailing action into the arm-side hitters. Not a lot of downward action on it. What was his motion like? He's only 6-foot tall so I'm guessing he makes the most of his stature and is coming more from over-the-top than he is coming from a 3/4 arm slot. Is this a correct assumption?

The Change-up (the orange line) -- Threw just one of these at 83.8 MPH. Seems to shadow his fastball pretty well with more tailing action into arm-side hitters.

The Curveball (the white line) -- Threw just two of these that averaged 82 MPH. I like this pitch. It's more of a power curve and I'd actually be surprised if it wasn't more of a slider than a curve. Shadow's the fastball plane very well until it gets close to home plate before diving down a bit. This, I think, is a legit swing-and-miss breaking ball. Given his fastball velocity (touched as high as 96.4 MPH), and the velocity of this breaking ball, it doesn't need to move a lot to induce weak (or no) contact.

Mechanics gurus: thoughts?

[Mike Rogers]

UPDATED WITH PROPER CLASSIFICATIONS! His change-up averaged 89 and was just wicked. Great arm-side run and wonderful drop. Command is the only thing lacking on it.

Disclaimer: Due to the few pitches that Matusz threw, it's hard to make any hard and fast conclusions. This seems to back up all the reports I've read on him, but I do want to stress to not take anything in this as 100% fact or gospel -- it's far from it. Also, I did not get to see the game (and forgot to record it), so any help from anyone in regards to whether I'm wrong in someone throwing over the top or 3/4, would be helpful).

Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers, RHP



The Fastball (the blue line) -- Well he certainly has a live arm. Threw 20 of them and averaged 97.1 MPH. He did have 18 4-seamers listed, one 2-seamer, and one that got the generic FA which is just Fastball. I grouped them all in as 4-seamers as the two that weren't labeled that were way down and possibly in the dirt. I think they were 4-seamers, just not hitting the mitt with them which threw off the velocity. If you don't include those other two, he averaged 98 even on the gun with this. I like the big arm-side run he gets on it, though it's pretty flat. Then again, it's to be expected given his velocity allows less time for gravity to pull the ball towards the ground.

The Curveball (the orange line)-- Threw it twice and averaged 80.0 MPH on it. I have no idea if that's actually a curveball or not, but that's what I'm leaving the classification as. I'm guessing that it is, but may be wrong. Gets some sweeping action on it, with pretty decent downward movement. His fastball is his best pitch, though.

That's all I'm going to do for tonight. I'll have some more tomorrow sometime. Maybe the afternoon, maybe in the evening.

[dougdirt]

Mike,
I think the 'fastballs' that were 89, 89 and 89 were change ups... not fastballs for Feliz.

[Mike Rogers]

Mike,
I think the 'fastballs' that were 89, 89 and 89 were change ups... not fastballs for Feliz.

Hmmm. That is entirely possible and not something that I thought of. I'll probably remake the graph tomorrow if I remember.

[Mike Rogers]

I have updated the Neftali Feliz pitch flight graph, so go find it to see the change-up implemented.

Disclaimer: Due to the few pitches that Matusz threw, it's hard to make any hard and fast conclusions. This seems to back up all the reports I've read on him, but I do want to stress to not take anything in this as 100% fact or gospel -- it's far from it. Also, I did not get to see the game (and forgot to record it), so any help from anyone in regards to whether I'm wrong in someone throwing over the top or 3/4, would be helpful).

FRANCISCO SAMUEL, ST. LOUIS CARDINALS, RHP



The Fastball (the blue line) --Averaged 96.2 on the 9 heaters he threw. Great tailing action on it, with a decent amount of sink. That'd probably be why he's +50% in GB rates in his career.

The Slider (the orange line) -- Averaged 88.6 and he threw 5 of them. It looks a bit flat to me, personally and there is some sweeping action on it, but not a lot. Decent pitch. Not sure it's MLB quality but I'm also going off a 5 pitch sample, so I cannot draw any hard/fast conclusions from it.

[MasMacho]

Good stuff as always, Mike. Truly you have the work ethic of a spartan.

I'm still getting a feel for how the graphs relate to what I've seen, but I have to say it's fascinating how much your reading of the graphs seems to correspond with what happened on the field. Science!

[Mike Rogers]

Disclaimer: Due to the few pitches that Matusz threw, it's hard to make any hard and fast conclusions. This seems to back up all the reports I've read on him, but I do want to stress to not take anything in this as 100% fact or gospel -- it's far from it. Also, I did not get to see the game (and forgot to record it), so any help from anyone in regards to whether I'm wrong in someone throwing over the top or 3/4, would be helpful).

CHRIS TILLMAN, BALTIMORE ORIOLES (sorry Seattle...), RHP



The Fastball (the blue line) -- He threw 20 of them while averaging 93.9 MPH. There is some arm-side run but not a lot, as well as some downward action. I'm sure, based on the velocity that this would be an above-average graded pitch (given the average velocity in the majors is 91-92), but based on movement ... I'm not entirely sure. Didn't look like it, from these graphs. I may be wrong (shockingly, it has happened before ), though.

The Change-up (the orange line) -- Only threw 3 of these and averaged 81.5 MPH. So, good speed differential from his fastball. It's got more arm-side run and sink than his fastball. Given the velocity, it seems like it's a nice compliment to his heater.

The Curveball (the white line) -- 79.4 MPH average on the 4 he threw. Can I just say that this is 100% MLB quality right now? It's pretty much 12-6, but the downward action looks great. This is a total wipe-out pitch and a slower version of Kyle Drabek. Again, i didn't get to see this game, but judging from the graphs, Drabek and Tillman's breaking balls looked to steal the show. Looks so good. I wonder how many of his K's have come on this in the minors.

[Mike Rogers]

Good stuff as always, Mike. Truly you have the work ethic of a spartan.

I'm still getting a feel for how the graphs relate to what I've seen, but I have to say it's fascinating how much your reading of the graphs seems to correspond with what happened on the field. Science!

Thank you. That is incredibly re-affirming and great to know. I always fear that I'm seeing something differently than someone who watched the game, so it's great to get some feedback.

[MasMacho]

Again, i didn't get to see this game, but judging from the graphs, Drabek and Tillman's breaking balls looked to steal the show. Looks so good. I wonder how many of his K's have come on this in the minors.

Again, I have to agree. It was Tillman's best pitch in this game imo, and Drabek's was tight, well-commanded and an excellent complement to his FB, which is why he and Casey Kelly came off as the most complete pitchers that day imo. Have you done Kelly yet? I'm interested to see how he graphs out. In build, poise, arsenal and command Drabek and Kelly looked like they were already major leaguers. Very, very impressive. I don't know how good a SS Kelly is, but he looks to be a helluva pitcher.

[Mike Rogers]

Disclaimer: Due to the few pitches that Matusz threw, it's hard to make any hard and fast conclusions. This seems to back up all the reports I've read on him, but I do want to stress to not take anything in this as 100% fact or gospel -- it's far from it. Also, I did not get to see the game (and forgot to record it), so any help from anyone in regards to whether I'm wrong in someone throwing over the top or 3/4, would be helpful).

MAT LATOS, SAN DIEGO PADRES, RHP



The Fastball (the blue line) -- 95.6 MPH average on 7 fastballs. Ummm, I've seen the motion on a couple Youtube videos and it's curious. Boy does he really get that ball high. Brooks Baseball's release point chart has that ball being recorded and just under 7 foot off the ground at 50 feet (when the ball is first recorded). That is nuts. Some arm-side run but that ball doesn't even have a path to sink -- it just goes straight downward because of the height it's released at and the way with which it's thrown. His mechanics definitely have a lot to do with it. I'm surprised he doesn't get more GB's after he's gotten out of the AZL. Though, he hasn't had large samples. This pitch flight alone I'd think he'd be a 50-55% GB pitcher.

The Change-up (the orange line) -- Only threw one of them at 82.8 MPH. It was a straight change that just dropped off the table about half way to home plate. Really like that.

The kid has good stuff for sure. It's a matter of health, per usual. I wish I could've seen the Centerfield shot of him. Someone want to enlighten me? I've seen a 3rd base view of him on Youtube thanks to another thread, but he certainly seems interesting.

[Mike Rogers]

Again, i didn't get to see this game, but judging from the graphs, Drabek and Tillman's breaking balls looked to steal the show. Looks so good. I wonder how many of his K's have come on this in the minors.

Again, I have to agree. It was Tillman's best pitch in this game imo, and Drabek's was tight, well-commanded and an excellent complement to his FB, which is why he and Casey Kelly came off as the most complete pitchers that day imo. Have you done Kelly yet? I'm interested to see how he graphs out. In build, poise, arsenal and command Drabek and Kelly looked like they were already major leaguers. Very, very impressive. I don't know how good a SS Kelly is, but he looks to be a helluva pitcher.

Nope, I'm getting to Danny Duffy at the moment. Casey Kelly will probably be after that since I've read nothing but great things about him around PP after his performance. Drabek and Tillman's breakers are just so good, it seems. Can't wait to see them in the bigs and get more info on them.

Then again, I can't wait until the pitchf/x system is put into all minor league stadiums -- that'll be so much fun to scout that way. That'll be awesome. But that's a ways off.

Actually, I'll do Casey Kelly right now.

[Mike Rogers]

Disclaimer: Due to the few pitches that Matusz threw, it's hard to make any hard and fast conclusions. This seems to back up all the reports I've read on him, but I do want to stress to not take anything in this as 100% fact or gospel -- it's far from it. Also, I did not get to see the game (and forgot to record it), so any help from anyone in regards to whether I'm wrong in someone throwing over the top or 3/4, would be helpful).

CASEY KELLY, BOSTON RED SOX, RHP



The Fastball (the blue line) -- Averaged 93.2 on the 7 fastballs he threw on the day. There was some decent arm-side run for the SS/RHP, and good downward movement. What do scouting reports say about his range in velocity with the fastball? He ranged 92.7-93.9 on his 7 heaters. In my mind, I'm taking about 1-3 MPH off of the fastballs for each of these guys under the assumption that they were going max-effort on each pitch given their short outings they were guaranteed. If so, and he's really around 90-91, I'm not so sure I like the fastball quite as much. Just speculating, though.

The Curveball (the orange line) -- Threw just 2 and averaged 82.2 MPH. I like this bender. He's getting a good amount of sweep on it, as it almost looks like an 11-5 breaker if you're looking from the catchers perspective at a clock. Good downward movement. He was releasing it from a higher point than his fastball, but I'm chalking that up to sample size.

For right now, I'd put the breaking balls I've looked at as:

Drabek
Tillman

Kelly is a couple notches below, in my opinion. But I didn't get to see the game live.