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Been way too long since a post in here, and Big Mike was asking me about Jackson's swing in hope I could cheer him up about the trade. Thought I'd expand a little more in here.
No real good angles exist (that I could find) of Jackson, but this one does show a lot. On the pitches he takes, you can see how much he weights his front leg before launching. Standard shift then swing pattern that holds back countless prospects. He gets his front foot down early, then pushes with his hips. Not very efficient. First time I saw him swing, I saw a hole down and away against good off speed pitches. Then I found this video, confirming it.
(:45 second mark) Now, Bucholz's changeup is no joke. I'll give Jackson that, this wasn't against a nobody. But that swing is telling, and that angle is actually quite good to see his inefficient angles of energy.(More on this in a bit) The foot down early and shift, push, THEN swing pattern really hurts him here. 2 part swings rarely do well at the MLB level. I can't think of one successful two part swinger off the top of my head. Even the guys who get the foot down early (Michael Young) still maintain a one move swing.
Back to the angles, he pulls his front shoulder down and in as he loads by a bit of counter rotation. Nature of physics (equal and opposite reaction) pulls his front side out early against Bucholz's changeup at the 45 second mark.
Much different than Braun does. Braun's load pulls his front shoulder down and in, allowing him to keep his hands in control and maintain true angles of energy. No pulling off. Jackson's shoulder loads his hands, which is of course, the opposite way of doing it (and far less efficient).
Also looks like his grip isn't a very good one. His bat isn't in the zone very long. Needs to cup his top wrist to allow him a longer arc.
(cont..) I've never been a fan of getting the foot down early, because you often see what you see in Jackson. A two part swing, usually with a healthy dose of early shifting. His two part movement makes it hard for him to be aggressive in his swing. Jackson looks to swing the bat. The greats look to deliver a blow. BIG difference. Now I'm not talking about Rob Deer-ing it, but there is some angry man aggression in great hitters swings. Once Joe Mauer became Angry Joe, his stretch improved, his aggression improved, and he started putting dents in seats. Jackson's lack of aggression doesn't allow him to get a good stretch, or wait as long.
For example, here's what Andre Ethier thinks-
“The main difference between college and pro for me was two things. I got stronger and I learned how to do this.” "Everyone talks about getting the front foot down,----- we don’t “rush” to get the front foot down."
"From here I feel like I can hit ANYTHING. I now trust it. If I get an offspeed pitch I may get my front foot down, but there aint much out there. (He was referring to shifting his weight). I really understood how to 'stay back.'
When asked if he shifts then swings or shifts and swings, he said he shifts and swings. Jackson is the opposite.
This is outstanding work. I've always kind of seen through Jackson's statistical profile but this is great visual evidence of some of the problems he encounters as a prospect, as well. Hard to like the Tigers decision to essentially roll him out in CF based on this...
Steve Carter wrote:Thanks Fred. And yes, it's quite a feeling. Almost Boston (the band) like. These celebratory/late night snack bananas have never tasted better.
Thanks Adam! I'll get the Allen report started soon and probably finish up tomorrow.
I'm not going to hold it against Dom, Leyland, or Mac; nor am I going to say they just don't know what they're talking about. Their eyes are different than mine and it would be very unprofessional to call them out without talking to them in person (Big Mike, hook a brother up! ). Plus, it would be really shocking for them to say anything against their own player, and a young one at that. They want to instill as much confidence as possible in him and in the fans for trading for him. I would do exactly the same in their situation.
With that said, I respectfully disagree with some of what they said. And fist pumped to Wynegar basically backing me up.
Some things in their assessment did stand out.-
"He's a rhythm type of hitter," said Dombrowski, meaning Jackson can be streaky.
He's a rhythm swinger, which is different than a hitter who has rhythm. Could also call him a momentum swinger/hitter. He grooves his rhythm to the pitchers rhythm -- what everybody does -- but he keeps on going once the pitch is released, almost regardless of what pitch type it is. His continuous rhythm and counter rotation pulls him off against good off speed stuff. You usually see his type of rhythm in guys that rely on more talent than skills to get by, and Jackson certainly has very good talent. Now he has to upgrade his skills. Great hitters break their "dance with the pitcher" once they recognize pitch type and location and go into attack mode. (Rhythm-load-gather-attack, Jackson is missing the "gather" part) You want a rhythmic load/pre-swing movements, but when you launch its less about maintaining rhythm and more about attacking. So Jackson will get his against the straight forward here's my fastball type pitchers, but the ones who can effectively mix speeds will give him trouble. Watch for change ups/cutters/sliders to be his bugaboo.
"He likes his swing, he says there's nothing wrong with his swing at all," Leyland said. "He's just not generating a lot of power yet, although power is usually the last thing to come.
"Mac (McClendon) says he probably needs to develop a little more bat-speed, and when he does, the power will come along. Obviously, there's some work to do
Power developing late is also about strength and learning how to hit for power at the ML level. But with Jackson, the lack of power and "need for more bat speed" also speaks volumes about his inefficiencies (so do the 123 strikeouts from a guy who's game is line drives and getting on base). He definitely still has a shot to succeed, but in order to do so, he's got to learn entirely new ways of generating his bat speed and quickness. That is always tricky and never easy.
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). Plus, it would be really shocking for them to say anything against their own player, and a young one at that. They want to instill as much confidence as possible in him and in the fans for trading for him. I would do exactly the same in their situation. 
And fist pumped to Wynegar basically backing me up.