Top 50 Pitchers Under 25

February 23, 2009

 

All Positions: C / 1B / 2B / SS / 3B / CF / OF / P

Top 50 Pitchers Under the age of 25
No. Player Pos. Comments Age Org Lvl
1 Tim Lincecum RHP His 28.6 K% led the bigs, though he walked 9.1%; highly unlikely to repeat NL best HR/FB (5.6%) 24.3 SF MLB
2 Felix Hernandez RHP Elite K/GB pitcher with solid command, though not in '08; brought HR rates down from '06-'08 22.5 SEA MLB
3 Scott Kazmir LHP Less than 160.0 IP in 2 of last 3 regular seasons; great K% with mediocre BB% and GB rates 24.7 TB MLB
4 Joba Chamberlain RHP Will join Lincecum tier if he can manage 180.0+ IP a season; drops to 10-20 range as a reliever 23.1 NYY MLB
5 Cole Hamels LHP WS MVP…so what!? K% has dropped every year (26.0, 23.8, 21.4); 3rd-lowest '08 NL BABIP 24.8 PHI MLB
6 Chad Billingsley RHP Was an ace in '08; Lowered BB% from 14.4 in '06 to 10.3 ('07) and 9.3 ('08); good K%/GB guy 24.2 LAD MLB
7 Clayton Kershaw LHP Youngest player in bigs last year; still managed 21.3% K, 11.1% BB, 50% GB -- potential STUD! 20.6 LAD MLB
8 John Danks LHP Great K and BB improvements from '07 to '08; will solidify ace status with more of the same 23.5 CHW MLB
9 Matt Cain RHP Good strikeout pitcher with decent command; low HR rates; 190+ IP every season since '06 24.0 SF MLB
10 Yovani Gallardo RHP Could be Top 5 on this list in '09; youngin with good K and BB%; solid HR/FB despite poor GB% 22.6 MIL MLB
11 David Price LHP From 07's No. 1 pick to MLB in 15 months; 7.2% BB, 24.3% K combined in '08 (A+/AA/AAA/MLB) 23.1 TB MLB
12 Stephen Strasburg RHP Overpowers hitters with fastball that sits in high-90s/good breaking ball; 42.6 K%, 5.1% in '08 20.2 SDSU NCAA
13 Jair Jurrjens RHP Can he replicate his '08 HR/FB (7th-best in NL)? Strong command/GB%; solid K% (17.1 in '08) 22.7 ATL MLB
14 Max Scherzer RHP Similarly dominant K% as Lincecum/Chamberlain (27.8% in '08 - MLB); 90.2 IP in '07, 109.0 in '08 24.2 ARI MLB
15 Yu Darvish RHP "He can be the best in the world…he can potentially pass a guy like Matsuzka." - Trey Hillman 22.2 HOK NIP
16 Kevin Slowey RHP Among top command pitchers in baseball, which helps make up for his 39% GB; 18.8% K in '08 24.4 MIN MLB
17 Clay Buchholz RHP Has 7.3% AA/AAA walk rate (726 TBF), 11.5% MLB (445 TBF); K and GB are ace-caliber rates 24.2 BOS MLB
18 Johnny Cueto RHP Good command and K% as 8th-youngest SP in baseball last year; 39% GB is below-average 22.7 CIN MLB
19 Andrew Miller LHP Could be an '09 breakout guy; has shown flashes of great command/GB% to go with strong K% 23.4 FLA MLB
20 Josh Johnson RHP Top 15 NL pitcher by FIP in '06 (150.0 IP min.); has since had and returned well from T.J. surgery 24.7 FLA MLB
21 Ubaldo Jimenez RHP Command (11.9% '08 BB) is really all that's keeping him from being an ace; 19.8% '08 K, 55% GB 24.9 COL MLB
22 Jon Lester LHP Owned the 4th-lowest HR/FB rate in the AL last year -- due for regression; 7.6% BB, 17.4% K 24.8 BOS MLB
23 Madison Bumgarner LHP Nearly flawless pro debut (29.4% K, 4.0% BB, 2.14 FIP) as the 4th-youngest SP in Low-A 19.2 SF A
24 Matt Garza RHP Will need to increase K% to replicate '08 success (18.3 in '07 to 16.6 in '08); great command 24.8 TB MLB
25 Brett Anderson LHP Dominated A+/AA last year (6.2% BB, 26.3% K, 57+% GB); Ks rose by 4.7% from A+ to AA 20.7 OAK AA
26 Rick Porcello RHP Top paid '07 prep arm managed 6.3% BB, 13.7% K, and 65% GB as 5th-youngest player in A+ 19.8 DET A+
27 Sean Gallagher RHP Could be similar to a RHP version of John Danks if he improves command; If not, he'll be a No. 3-4 22.8 OAK MLB
28 Phil Hughes RHP Only 69.2 regular season IP in '08 -- 108.1 ('07), 146.0 ('06); 4th-youngest SP in MLB last year 22.7 NYY MLB
29 Mike Pelfrey RHP MLB career K% is 13.0%, 17.5% in AAA (355 TBF); massive BB% improvement from '07 to '08 24.7 NYM MLB
30 Chris Volstad RHP Strong GB pitcher was 3rd-youngest '08 MLB SP; 9.9% BB, 14.2% K -- 7.8 BB, 14.6 K in AA 22.1 FLA MLB
31 Derek Holland LHP One of biggest breakout arms in '08; 27.6% K, 6.8% BB (A/A+/AA); Juco signee in '06 ($100 K) 22.0 TEX AA
32 Neftali Feliz RHP Posted awesome 32.7% K in A (25.4 in AA), but BB% rose from 8.6 to 12.4 (324 TBF vs. 185) 20.5 TEX AA
33 Jonathan Broxton RHP Our choice as top young RP in baseball; awesome K% (30.5 career), decent BB% (9.7 career) 24.3 LAD MLB
34 Jarrod Parker RHP K% doesn't wow you? Notice that Ks rose steadily from 19.4% in April to 30.6% in August 19.9 ARI A
35 Homer Bailey RHP 6th-youngest '08 MLB SP may finally surface as average starter in '09; still chance to be No. 1-2 22.4 CIN MLB
36 Fausto Carmona RHP Missed almost two months with a hip strain in '08; was a Top 20 pitcher in the AL by FIP in '07 24.9 CLE MLB
37 Trevor Cahill RHP Stellar strikeout/ground-ball pitcher; command will determine if he peaks as a No. 1 or No. 3-4 20.6 OAK AA
38 Brian Matusz LHP The best NCAA pitcher in the '08 draft class; 40.8% K, 6.4% BB during his final college season 21.7 BAL NCAA
39 Tommy Hanson RHP Power arm who had mediocre '08 walk/ground ball rates (27.8% K, 10.0% BB in AA; 410 TBF) 22.1 ATL AA
40 Justin Masterson RHP Has No. 1-2 potential; only 140.0 IP in '08 -- 153.2 ('07); above-average GB, good K%, poor BB% 23.5 BOS MLB
41 Chris Tillman RHP Another power arm w/ mediocre '08 BB/ground ball rates (26.6% K, 11.2% BB in AA; 580 TBF) 20.5 BAL AA
42 Jesse Litsch RHP Gets by on great command (5.3% BB in '08) and solid GB%; low K% (12.3 career) limits upside 23.6 TOR MLB
43 Aaron Laffey LHP Elite command/GB SP has struck out 18.3% in AAA (666 TBF); Missed Sept. w/ elbow injury 23.5 CLE MLB
44 Ian Kennedy RHP He's mastered AAA but hasn't found MLB success (271 TBF sample); could become a No. 2-3 23.8 NYY MLB
45 Joakim Soria RHP Helped by 3rd-lowest BABIP in '08 MLB (50.0 IP min.); better BB%, worse K% than Broxton 24.4 KC MLB
46 Tim Alderson RHP Started, finished w/ poor K% (27.1 in July); great command (5.9% BB); 4th-youngest SP in A+ 19.9 SF A+
47 Collin Balester RHP 5th-youngest '08 MLB SP; good command, but K% dropped from 19.3 in AAA to 14.0 in bigs 22.4 WAS MLB
48 Greg Reynolds RHP A wild card due to aggressive promotions; 2nd overall pick in '06; 4.7% BB, 18.4% K in AA ('07) 23.4 COL MLB
49 Jordan Zimmerman RHP Adjusted well to AA after mediocre first 2 months (27.7% K, 6.3% BB in 2nd half); 2.54 A+ FIP 22.4 WAS AA
50 Scott Olsen LHP Was among bottom 10 NL SP by FIP in '07 and '08; could be again now that he's out of Florida 24.8 WAS MLB
Honorables: Jo-Jo Reyes (ATL), John Lannan (WAS), Jhoulys Chacin (COL), Carlos Carrasco (PHI), Jeremy Hellickson (TB), and Michael Inoa (OAK).
* Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production
** Ages are as of November 1st, 2008
*** Level is the highest level the player has reached
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Questions about this list can be directed toward Adam Foster at .