Miguel Cabrera and Joe Mauer's graduations clear way for every incumbent on this list to rise two notches up the ranks. And that's what almost all of them did. The biggest overachievers: Justin Upton, Tim Lincecum, Evan Longoria, and Clay Buchholz. The guys who still fell: Colby Rasmus, Ryan Zimmerman, and Matt Cain. New Arrivals: Nick Markakis and Zack Greinke.
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No. | Player | Pos. | Comments | Age | Org | Lvl | Pre. | |||||||
1 | Prince Fielder | 1B | After hitting 1 HR through first 20 games, has hit 3 in his last 5; K% down from '07, BB% up | 23.9 | MIL | MLB | 1 ↔ | |||||||
2 | Hanley Ramirez | SS | Hitting for as much power as ever (.288 IsoP), but LD% vs. BABIP & K% say he'll cool down | 24.3 | FLA | MLB | 3 ↑ | |||||||
3 | Felix Hernandez | RHP | He's finally becoming an ace; allowing fewer XBH than last season (.097 IsoPA vs. .138) | 22.0 | SEA | MLB | 6 ↑ | |||||||
4 | Jose Reyes | SS | While he isn't walking nearly as much as in '07, slow start may also be due to some bad luck | 24.8 | NYM | MLB | 4 ↔ | |||||||
5 | Ryan Braun | LF | It's beginning to look like he's not going to be able to match his rookie vital line (.324/.370/.634) | 24.4 | MIL | MLB | 7 ↑ | |||||||
6 | Justin Upton | RF | What Upton's doing is simply amazing (.333/.376/.578); will sit atop this list soon at this pace | 20.6 | ARI | MLB | 9 ↑ | |||||||
7 | Tim Lincecum | RHP | Becoming one of the best pitchers in the game; a true ace even though 11.3% BB isn't ideal | 23.7 | SF | MLB | 11 ↑ | |||||||
8 | Cole Hamels | LHP | Pitching like a good No. 2 so far; K% down by 3.4% from '07, BB% up 2.4%, improved IsoPA | 24.3 | PHI | MLB | 8 ↔ | |||||||
9 | Yovani Gallardo | RHP | Dominated Florida in 2nd start back from DL (knee): 7.0 IP, 6 H (5 1B, 1 2B), 0 ER, 5 K, 2 BB | 22.1 | MIL | MLB | 10 ↑ | |||||||
10 | Jay Bruce | CF | The best hitting prospect in the minors, Bruce has been very good in Triple-A over 300+ PA | 21.0 | CIN | AAA | 12 ↑ | |||||||
11 | B.J. Upton | CF | Contact & on-base rates have been similar to '07, just isn't slugging as much (.411 vs. .508) | 23.6 | TB | MLB | 14 ↑ | |||||||
12 | Scott Kazmir | LHP | Got lit up on 4/23 (A+; rehab); rises three spots due to graduations and Rasmus' struggles | 23.7 | TB | MLB | 15 ↑ | |||||||
13 | Evan Longoria | 3B | Tearing the cover all the ball in the bigs; last time he hit for this much power was Cal League | 22.4 | TB | MLB | 18 ↑ | |||||||
14 | Colby Rasmus | CF | Effort to improve as oppo hitter has been futile in large; he's now hitting .204/.294/.323 in '08 | 21.7 | STL | AAA | 13 ↓ | |||||||
15 | Clay Buchholz | RHP | Has been a very good No. 2 starter over 51.1 IP -- 23.4% K, 9.6% BB, and a FIP under 3.50 | 23.7 | BOS | MLB | 19 ↑ | |||||||
16 | Billy Butler | DH | Similar to B.J. Upton, he's making contact & reaching base, he just hasn't hit for much power | 22.0 | KC | MLB | 17 ↑ | |||||||
17 | Ryan Zimmerman | 3B | We have MLB 1,450+ PA that say he's a better hitter than he has been through 117 in '08 | 23.5 | WAS | MLB | 16 ↓ | |||||||
18 | Alex Gordon | 3B | Primary difference in his '07 and '08 numbers is BABIP (.304 vs. .358) -- had a .375 in AA | 24.2 | KC | MLB | 20 ↑ | |||||||
19 | Clayton Kershaw | LHP | Handling AA hitters with more ease than Low-A hitters in '07 -- his FIP is a full point lower?! | 20.0 | LAD | AA | 27 ↑ | |||||||
20 | Joba Chamberlain | RHP | His '08 numbers have been almost as good as '07; should be in Yankees' rotation by June | 22.5 | NYY | MLB | 21 ↑ | |||||||
21 | Brian McCann | C | Returning to 2006 form? It looks like his power stroke's back...and maybe stronger than ever | 24.1 | ATL | MLB | 24 ↑ | |||||||
22 | Chris Young | CF | As weird as it is, he could be an above-average hitter with an awful contact rate (.224 BA) | 24.6 | ARI | MLB | 25 ↑ | |||||||
23 | Nick Markakis | RF | Blossoming into an OBP king? Had a 9.2% walk rate in '07; 21.3% BB so far in '08 (108 PA) | 24.4 | BAL | MLB | NR ↑ | |||||||
24 | Zack Greinke | RHP | Low K% means he'll either come back to earth or start getting more Ks; still a solid No. 2 | 24.5 | KC | MLB | NR ↑ | |||||||
25 | Matt Cain | RHP | Though his K% is up from '07 (19.6% vs. 21.0%), his walks are as well; been a No. 2-3 | 23.5 | SF | MLB | 23 ↓ | |||||||
Honorables: Phil Hughes (NYY), Matt Wieters (BAL), Johnny Cueto (CIN), Chad Billingsley (LAD), Troy Tulowitzki (COL), and Jeremy Hermida (FLA). | ||||||||||||||
Graduated (final ranking): Miguel Cabrera (2) and Joe Mauer (5). | ||||||||||||||
Dropped out of Top 25 (previous ranking): Fausto Carmona (22). | ||||||||||||||
* Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production | ||||||||||||||
*** Ages are as of April 28th, 2008 | ||||||||||||||
**** Level is the highest level the player has reached | ||||||||||||||
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Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.