Top 25 Under 25

April 28, 2008

Miguel Cabrera and Joe Mauer's graduations clear way for every incumbent on this list to rise two notches up the ranks. And that's what almost all of them did. The biggest overachievers: Justin Upton, Tim Lincecum, Evan Longoria, and Clay Buchholz. The guys who still fell: Colby Rasmus, Ryan Zimmerman, and Matt Cain. New Arrivals: Nick Markakis and Zack Greinke.

 

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No.   Player   Pos.   Comments   Age   Org   Lvl   Pre.
1   Prince Fielder   1B   After hitting 1 HR through first 20 games, has hit 3 in his last 5; K% down from '07, BB% up   23.9   MIL   MLB   1 ↔
2   Hanley Ramirez   SS   Hitting for as much power as ever (.288 IsoP), but LD% vs. BABIP & K% say he'll cool down   24.3   FLA   MLB   3 ↑
3   Felix Hernandez   RHP   He's finally becoming an ace; allowing fewer XBH than last season (.097 IsoPA vs. .138)   22.0   SEA   MLB   6 ↑
4   Jose Reyes   SS   While he isn't walking nearly as much as in '07, slow start may also be due to some bad luck   24.8   NYM   MLB   4 ↔
5   Ryan Braun   LF   It's beginning to look like he's not going to be able to match his rookie vital line (.324/.370/.634) 24.4   MIL   MLB   7 ↑
6   Justin Upton   RF   What Upton's doing is simply amazing (.333/.376/.578); will sit atop this list soon at this pace   20.6   ARI   MLB   9 ↑
7   Tim Lincecum   RHP   Becoming one of the best pitchers in the game; a true ace even though 11.3% BB isn't ideal   23.7   SF   MLB   11 ↑
8   Cole Hamels   LHP   Pitching like a good No. 2 so far; K% down by 3.4% from '07, BB% up 2.4%, improved IsoPA   24.3   PHI   MLB   8 ↔
9   Yovani Gallardo   RHP   Dominated Florida in 2nd start back from DL (knee): 7.0 IP, 6 H (5 1B, 1 2B), 0 ER, 5 K, 2 BB   22.1   MIL   MLB   10 ↑
10   Jay Bruce   CF   The best hitting prospect in the minors, Bruce has been very good in Triple-A over 300+ PA   21.0   CIN   AAA   12 ↑
11   B.J. Upton   CF   Contact & on-base rates have been similar to '07, just isn't slugging as much (.411 vs. .508)   23.6   TB   MLB   14 ↑
12   Scott Kazmir   LHP   Got lit up on 4/23 (A+; rehab); rises three spots due to graduations and Rasmus' struggles   23.7   TB   MLB   15 ↑
13   Evan Longoria   3B   Tearing the cover all the ball in the bigs; last time he hit for this much power was Cal League   22.4   TB   MLB   18 ↑
14   Colby Rasmus   CF   Effort to improve as oppo hitter has been futile in large; he's now hitting .204/.294/.323 in '08   21.7   STL   AAA   13 ↓
15   Clay Buchholz   RHP   Has been a very good No. 2 starter over 51.1 IP -- 23.4% K, 9.6% BB, and a FIP under 3.50   23.7   BOS   MLB   19 ↑
16   Billy Butler   DH   Similar to B.J. Upton, he's making contact & reaching base, he just hasn't hit for much power   22.0   KC   MLB   17 ↑
17   Ryan Zimmerman   3B   We have MLB 1,450+ PA that say he's a better hitter than he has been through 117 in '08   23.5   WAS   MLB   16 ↓
18   Alex Gordon   3B   Primary difference in his '07 and '08 numbers is BABIP (.304 vs. .358) -- had a .375 in AA   24.2   KC   MLB   20 ↑
19   Clayton Kershaw   LHP   Handling AA hitters with more ease than Low-A hitters in '07 -- his FIP is a full point lower?!   20.0   LAD   AA   27 ↑
20   Joba Chamberlain   RHP   His '08 numbers have been almost as good as '07; should be in Yankees' rotation by June   22.5   NYY   MLB   21 ↑
21   Brian McCann   C   Returning to 2006 form? It looks like his power stroke's back...and maybe stronger than ever   24.1   ATL   MLB   24 ↑
22   Chris Young   CF   As weird as it is, he could be an above-average hitter with an awful contact rate (.224 BA)   24.6   ARI   MLB   25 ↑
23   Nick Markakis   RF   Blossoming into an OBP king? Had a 9.2% walk rate in '07; 21.3% BB so far in '08 (108 PA)   24.4   BAL   MLB   NR ↑
24   Zack Greinke   RHP   Low K% means he'll either come back to earth or start getting more Ks; still a solid No. 2   24.5   KC   MLB   NR ↑
25   Matt Cain   RHP   Though his K% is up from '07 (19.6% vs. 21.0%), his walks are as well; been a No. 2-3   23.5   SF   MLB   23 ↓
Honorables: Phil Hughes (NYY), Matt Wieters (BAL), Johnny Cueto (CIN), Chad Billingsley (LAD), Troy Tulowitzki (COL), and Jeremy Hermida (FLA).
Graduated (final ranking): Miguel Cabrera (2) and Joe Mauer (5).                
Dropped out of Top 25 (previous ranking): Fausto Carmona (22).                
* Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production                
*** Ages are as of April 28th, 2008                
**** Level is the highest level the player has reached                
                             
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Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.