Top 25 Prospect Rankings

July 21, 2008

Given that it's been 42 days since our last prospect list, it should come as no surprise to see a lot of changes here.

On top of four elite prospects graduating, Max Scherzer got demoted, rocked, and landed on the DL. 2008's draft picks started signing, though Tim Beckham is the only one who made this list. And highlighted by Brett Anderson, half a dozen fresh names forced their ways into our rankings.

Thanks for checking back for our second year of in-season prospect rankings.
No.   Player   Pos.   Comments   Age   Org   Lvl   Pre.
1   Clayton Kershaw   LHP   AA K rate has declined each month: April 30.1%, May 22.2%, July 18.2% -- 24.5% overall   20.3   LAD   MLB   2 ↑
2   Matt Wieters   C   Used to be too good for High-A (.418 wOBA); now he's too good for AA (.411, 13.8% BB)   22.1   BAL   AA   3 ↑
3   David Price   LHP   Has been solid, but not dominant in Double-A: 7.9% BB, 19.7% K, 4.07 FIP; 1.69 FIP in A+   22.8   TB   AA   5 ↑
4   Matt LaPorta   LF   Lots of power, decent contact skils; 17.1% K, .288 IsoP, .406 wOBA w/ Huntsville (369 PA)   23.5   CLE   AA   4 ↔
5   Colby Rasmus   CF   Missed Futures Game and most of July with groin strain; .427 wOBA in June (120 PA)   21.9   STL   AAA   6 ↑
6   Rick Porcello   RHP   Having his worst month to date as a pro: 10.3% BB, 10.3% K; 64% GB, 4.01 FIP overall   19.5   DET   A+   10 ↑
7   Cameron Maybin   CF   .335 wOBA in April, .346 in May, .409 in June -- and 33.6% K, 29.4, 19.3 respectively   21.2   FLA   MLB   8 ↑
8   Andrew McCutchen CF   Woeful June (.291 wOBA); hitting 1 HR since May 24 hasn't helped stock; 7 HR in April-May   21.7   PIT   AAA   7 ↓
9   Jason Heyward   RF   After .410 wOBA in May, "cooled down" to .365 in June; 15.1% K, .365 wOBA overall   18.9   ATL   A   16 ↑
10   Mike Moustakas   SS   Far from dominant, but not overmatched: .303 wOBA, 7.9% BB, 15.2% K, .265 BABIP, 15% LD 19.8   KC   A   15 ↑
11   Trevor Cahill   RHP   Not dominating AA (4.02 FIP) like he did A+ (3.23); already thrown more innings than '07   20.3   OAK   AA   12 ↑
12   Travis Snider   LF   Lack of contact (29.1% K) becoming major concern; .187 IsoP in AA (.212 in A+ last year)   20.4   TOR   AA   9 ↓
13   Brett Anderson   LHP   Excellent ground-ball pitcher (62% in A+) has low walk rate (6.2%) and lots of Ks (27.0%)   20.4   OAK   AA   NR ↑
14   Madison Bumgarner LHP   Dominant all year: 27.4% K, 4.2% BB, 6.5 K/BB, 2.35 FIP; 62 K vs. 8 BB over last 10 starts   18.9   SF   A   13 ↓
15   Chris Davis   1B   Raked in AA (.406 wOBA), slaughtered AAA (.439), crushing in MLB (.380 through 73 PA)   22.3   TEX   MLB   25 ↑
16   Mat Gamel   3B   After going yard 13 times in April/May, has just 2 HR in June/July; still, .428 overall wOBA   22.9   MIL   AA   18 ↑
17   Chris Tillman   RHP   Among the youngest players in AA, he has a 24.1% K rate and 3.49 FIP; 11.6% BB isn't pretty   20.2   BAL   AA   NR ↑
18   Tim Beckham   SS   Despite professional struggles his upside rivals any prep hitter selected since Justin Upton   18.4   TB   R   NR ↑
19   Dexter Fowler   CF   Getting better each month: .349 wOBA in April to .459 in July; .390 overall after .351 in CAL   22.3   COL   AA   NR ↑
20   Tim Alderson   RHP   Finding success in Cal League: 3.32 FIP, 22.0% K, 7.1% BB; 46 K versus 10 BB in June/July   19.7   SF   A+   NR ↑
21   Chris Volstad   RHP   After shutting down AA hitters (3.09 FIP), he's already finding some success in the bigs   21.8   FLA   MLB   30 ↑
22   Jaime Garcia   LHP   Made 1st MLB start last week: 5.0 IP, 5 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 4 K; had a 4.16 FIP in 68.2 AAA IP   22.0   STL   MLB   17 ↓
23   Neftali Feliz   RHP   Completely skipped A+, doing fine in AA; through 99.0 IP: 31.1% K, 8.6% BB, and just 2 HR   20.2   TEX   AA   NR ↑
24   Fernando Martinez   CF   Cool April and July take away from hot stretches in May and June: .282/.326/.408 overall   19.7   NYM   AA   23 ↓
25   Jeff Clement   C   Mastered minors but will he ever been a good big leaguer? .267 wOBA in bigs in '08 (128 PA)   24.8   SEA   AAA   19 ↓
Honorables: Michael Bowden (BOS), Jarrod Parker (ARI), Jhoulys Chacin (COL), Austin Jackson (NYY), and Gio Gonzalez (OAK).            
Graduated (final ranking): Jay Bruce (1), Andy LaRoche (11), Justin Masterson (20), and Carlos Gonzalez (24).                
Dropped out of Top 25 (previous ranking): Max Scherzer (14), Jarrod Parker (21), and Nick Weglarz (22).                
* Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production                
** Ages are as of July 21st, 2008                
*** Level is the highest level the player has reached                
                             
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Please address questions about this list to Adam Foster at adamf@projectprospect.com.