As we enter our third year of prospect coverage, one of our founding principals continues to stay alive. Accessibility. Who are we to be anything but honored when people take the time to put critical thought into evaluating our work? If my fiance asked me why I like Kevin Slowey's odds of succeeding in the big leagues more than Homer Bailey's, I'd be ecstatic. That will never happen, though.
Below are quotes and responses from the debate that's taken place in our forums over our Top 50 Pitchers Under 25 list. (I get a warm fuzzy feeling every time we have a new member join our forums.)
Conservative Hanson Rank
"Just curious why Tommy Hanson wasn't ranked higher? During the AFL he had a WHIP of 0.61 and a 51.6% strikeout rate while pitching in a league that's typically dominated by hitters. He looked just as dominating in person as his stats would indicate. He had people in awe during the Rising Stars Showcase." - desertdawg
I gave Hanson a significant boost in my ranking system for his AFL dominance (appx. 51.6% K, 7.4% BB, 95 TBF).
I'd
like to see Hanson continue that kind of success over an extended
period of time, as he wasn't nealy as dominant in 98.0 Double-A innings
last season (27.8% K, 10.0% BB, 410 TBF). If he picks up where he left
off in the AFL in AA/AAA, I don't know if there will be a good reason
to rank him outside of a the top five pitching prospects in the game.
Right
now, I see reason to be hesitant when it comes to saying he broke out
in the AFL and will continue his sizable improvements over his
full-season numbers from the last two years. He had trouble adjusting
to High-A as well as Double-A. Who's to say Triple-A won't pose the
same challenge? And how about the big leagues? How much can he adjust?
How quickly will he do so?
You're crazy for being such a Jesse Litsch fan
"I find it troubling that a guy with a career 12.3% K in the majors is on this list." - rdf8585
"If you would take Jesse Litsch over Brett Cecil long term I really have to question your sanity." - Jasper109
I don't think Cecil and Litsch's current values are so far apart that anyone who would take Litsch over Cecil -- he ranked just missed the list, 57th -- is crazy. Is it a given that Cecil will be able to pitch 170.0+ innings a season, as Litsch has in each of the last two? Shouldn't Cecil's BB% spike from Double-A to Triple-A be a cause of some concern? That said, Litsch's September walk rate is concerning.
I find it interesting that, Litsch, a guy with a 12.3% career strikeout rate could manage a 6.2% MLB walk rate (1,213 TBF). That paired with his 18.6% AA/AAA strikeout rate (689 TBF) impresses me. I'm standing by Litsch as a 2009 breakout guy. He's definitely a unique pitcher, but that could be a good thing.
When I was writing the blurbs for this list, I was thinking of the guys in the 1-20 range as guys who in large look like good bets to become No. 1-2 starters -- maybe throw Jimenez in that mix, too. Then 22-40 was where I thought a lot of good bets to be No. 2-3 guys belong, as well as guys who appear to have a shot of being a No. 1-2 in 2-3 years. The 41-50 range is when I started thinking that guys either looked like MLB No. 3-4s or were still 3+ years from achieving top-of-the-rotation status.
Where's Jake Arrieta?
"Just curious but where is Jake Arrieta? I know hehas only pitched one year but he has a ton of talent." - fightingillini09
Arrieta is currently outside of my Top 100 pitchers under 25. He turns 23 in about a week, hasn't pitched in the upper minors -- I know being on Team USA may have prevented him from earning a Double-A promotion -- and wasn't dominant in High-A. His 25.9% K was good last year. But I have concerns about a NCAA product who posted an 11.0% BB rate over 113.0 innings during his first full pro season. I also wonder if he'll be able to post a .262 BABIP next season and beyond. Arrieta is certainly an elite pitching prospect. He's just going to need to make some significant progress before I'll feel comfortable putting him on a list like this one.
Don't tell me that you forgot about Brandon Morrow?!
"Why no Brandon Morrow? Better K rate than Scherzer with slightly worse BB rate. Proved dominant in the bullpen and is slated to move to the rotation." - Economist
"Yeah, I didn't think of Morrow. Maybe he "fell between the cracks", statistically, since he didn't have enough innings to qualify on most SP lists? When I was thinking of other candidates for this list, he didn't show up based on the criteria I was searching on." - Joel Brandhorst
Doh! Morrow should have made this list. Whether he's belongs in the Top 30 or in the 40-50 range is debatable, but he should have been on this list. He's a guy who I missed. I knew I could have been a little more thorough with this list.
You're in love with Collin Balester
"The Balester love continues to baffle me. He's simply not a particularly good pitcher. His K-rate isn't particularly good (sub 20%), his command is strong but not elite, he's not an elite GB guy...I just don't see how he can possibly rank as high as he has been. Nothing in Balester's profile screams out that he'll ever be better than a #3 pitcher." - Franchise887
Would Balester's ranking be off if he wound up being a No. 3-4 for a most of his 20s?
"Yes, Balester's ranking would be off given there are guys like Erbe, Arrieta, and others with much higher upsides who aren't on the list. I simply don't see Balester as a top anything." - Franchise887
Balester is tops in age-versus-level for me. I know you can't boost him too much for being rushed to the bigs by a team without much pitching depth. But he could have spent all of 2008 in Triple-A and continued to improve -- 8.9% BB, 19.8% K in April; 6.7% BB, 21.3% K in June. And I think his impressive rookie command is promising.
I'm constantly reminded that I'm much more of a floor fan than most. I don't like to default to the next guy with big upside once I reach a pitcher who has limited upside but appears to be a solid bet to be at least an average regular. I like average regulars. They're much better than replacement-level players.
Adam Foster can be reached in the Project Prospect forums.