Top 50 Pitchers Under 25

February 23, 2009
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All Positions: C / 1B / 2B / SS / 3B / CF / OF / P

Top 50 Pitchers Under the age of 25
No.   Player   Pos.   Comments   Age   Org   Lvl
1   Tim Lincecum   RHP   His 28.6 K% led the bigs, though he walked 9.1%; highly unlikely to repeat NL best HR/FB (5.6%) 24.3   SF   MLB
2   Felix Hernandez   RHP   Elite K/GB pitcher with solid command, though not in '08; brought HR rates down from '06-'08   22.5   SEA   MLB
3   Scott Kazmir   LHP   Less than 160.0 IP in 2 of last 3 regular seasons; great K% with mediocre BB% and GB rates   24.7   TB   MLB
4   Joba Chamberlain   RHP   Will join Lincecum tier if he can manage 180.0+ IP a season; drops to 10-20 range as a reliever   23.1   NYY   MLB
5   Cole Hamels   LHP   WS MVP…so what!? K% has dropped every year (26.0, 23.8, 21.4); 3rd-lowest '08 NL BABIP   24.8   PHI   MLB
6   Chad Billingsley   RHP   Was an ace in '08; Lowered BB% from 14.4 in '06 to 10.3 ('07) and 9.3 ('08); good K%/GB guy   24.2   LAD   MLB
7   Clayton Kershaw   LHP   Youngest player in bigs last year; still managed 21.3% K, 11.1% BB, 50% GB -- potential STUD!   20.6   LAD   MLB
8   John Danks   LHP   Great K and BB improvements from '07 to '08; will solidify ace status with more of the same   23.5   CHW   MLB
9   Matt Cain   RHP   Good strikeout pitcher with decent command; low HR rates; 190+ IP every season since '06   24.0   SF   MLB
10   Yovani Gallardo   RHP   Could be Top 5 on this list in '09; youngin with good K and BB%; solid HR/FB despite poor GB%   22.6   MIL   MLB
11   David Price   LHP   From 07's No. 1 pick to MLB in 15 months; 7.2% BB, 24.3% K combined in '08 (A+/AA/AAA/MLB) 23.1   TB   MLB
12   Stephen Strasburg   RHP   Overpowers hitters with fastball that sits in high-90s/good breaking ball;  42.6 K%, 5.1% in '08   20.2   SDSU   NCAA
13   Jair Jurrjens   RHP   Can he replicate his '08 HR/FB (7th-best in NL)? Strong command/GB%; solid K% (17.1 in '08)   22.7   ATL   MLB
14   Max Scherzer   RHP   Similarly dominant K% as Lincecum/Chamberlain (27.8% in '08 - MLB); 90.2 IP in '07, 109.0 in '08   24.2   ARI   MLB
15   Yu Darvish   RHP   "He can be the best in the world…he can potentially pass a guy like Matsuzka." - Trey Hillman   22.2   HOK   NIP
16   Kevin Slowey   RHP   Among top command pitchers in baseball, which helps make up for his 39% GB; 18.8% K in '08   24.4   MIN   MLB
17   Clay Buchholz   RHP   Has 7.3% AA/AAA walk rate (726 TBF), 11.5% MLB (445 TBF); K and GB are ace-caliber rates   24.2   BOS   MLB
18   Johnny Cueto   RHP   Good command and K% as 8th-youngest SP in baseball last year; 39% GB is below-average   22.7   CIN   MLB
19   Andrew Miller   LHP   Could be an '09 breakout guy; has shown flashes of great command/GB% to go with strong K% 23.4   FLA   MLB
20   Josh Johnson   RHP   Top 15 NL pitcher by FIP in '06 (150.0 IP min.); has since had and returned well from T.J. surgery 24.7   FLA   MLB
21   Ubaldo Jimenez   RHP   Command (11.9% '08 BB) is really all that's keeping him from being an ace; 19.8% '08 K, 55% GB 24.9   COL   MLB
22   Jon Lester   LHP   Owned the 4th-lowest HR/FB rate in the AL last year -- due for regression; 7.6% BB, 17.4% K   24.8   BOS   MLB
23   Madison Bumgarner   LHP   Nearly flawless pro debut (29.4% K, 4.0% BB, 2.14 FIP) as the 4th-youngest SP in Low-A   19.2   SF   A
24   Matt Garza   RHP   Will need to increase K% to replicate '08 success (18.3 in '07 to 16.6 in '08); great command   24.8   TB   MLB
25   Brett Anderson   LHP   Dominated A+/AA last year (6.2% BB, 26.3% K, 57+% GB); Ks rose by 4.7% from A+ to AA   20.7   OAK   AA
26   Rick Porcello   RHP   Top paid '07 prep arm managed 6.3% BB, 13.7% K, and 65% GB as 5th-youngest player in A+   19.8   DET   A+
27   Sean Gallagher   RHP   Could be similar to a RHP version of John Danks if he improves command; If not, he'll be a No. 3-4   22.8   OAK   MLB
28   Phil Hughes   RHP   Only 69.2 regular season IP in '08 -- 108.1 ('07), 146.0 ('06); 4th-youngest SP in MLB last year   22.7   NYY   MLB
29   Mike Pelfrey   RHP   MLB career K% is 13.0%, 17.5% in AAA (355 TBF); massive BB% improvement from '07 to '08   24.7   NYM   MLB
30   Chris Volstad   RHP   Strong GB pitcher was 3rd-youngest '08 MLB SP; 9.9% BB, 14.2% K -- 7.8 BB, 14.6 K in AA   22.1   FLA   MLB
31   Derek Holland   LHP   One of biggest breakout arms in '08; 27.6% K, 6.8% BB (A/A+/AA); Juco signee in '06 ($100 K)   22.0   TEX   AA
32   Neftali Feliz   RHP   Posted awesome 32.7% K in A (25.4 in AA), but BB% rose from 8.6 to 12.4 (324 TBF vs. 185)   20.5   TEX   AA
33   Jonathan Broxton   RHP   Our choice as top young RP in baseball; awesome K% (30.5 career), decent BB% (9.7 career)   24.3   LAD   MLB
34   Jarrod Parker   RHP   K% doesn't wow you? Notice that Ks rose steadily from 19.4% in April to 30.6% in August   19.9   ARI   A
35   Homer Bailey   RHP   6th-youngest '08 MLB SP may finally surface as average starter in '09; still chance to be No. 1-2   22.4   CIN   MLB
36   Fausto Carmona   RHP   Missed almost two months with a hip strain in '08; was a Top 20 pitcher in the AL by FIP in '07   24.9   CLE   MLB
37   Trevor Cahill   RHP   Stellar strikeout/ground-ball pitcher; command will determine if he peaks as a No. 1 or No. 3-4   20.6   OAK   AA
38   Brian Matusz   LHP   The best NCAA pitcher in the '08 draft class; 40.8% K, 6.4% BB during his final college season   21.7   BAL   NCAA
39   Tommy Hanson   RHP   Power arm who had mediocre '08 walk/ground ball rates (27.8% K, 10.0% BB in AA; 410 TBF)   22.1   ATL   AA
40   Justin Masterson   RHP   Has No. 1-2 potential; only 140.0 IP in '08 -- 153.2 ('07); above-average GB, good K%, poor BB% 23.5   BOS   MLB
41   Chris Tillman   RHP   Another power arm w/ mediocre '08 BB/ground ball rates (26.6% K, 11.2% BB in AA; 580 TBF)   20.5   BAL   AA
42   Jesse Litsch   RHP   Gets by on great command (5.3% BB in '08) and solid GB%; low K% (12.3 career) limits upside   23.6   TOR   MLB
43   Aaron Laffey   LHP   Elite command/GB SP has struck out 18.3% in AAA (666 TBF); Missed Sept. w/ elbow injury   23.5   CLE   MLB
44   Ian Kennedy   RHP   He's mastered AAA but hasn't found MLB success (271 TBF sample); could become a No. 2-3   23.8   NYY   MLB
45   Joakim Soria   RHP   Helped by 3rd-lowest BABIP in '08 MLB (50.0 IP min.); better BB%, worse K% than Broxton   24.4   KC   MLB
46   Tim Alderson   RHP   Started, finished w/ poor K% (27.1 in July); great command (5.9% BB); 4th-youngest SP in A+   19.9   SF   A+
47   Collin Balester   RHP   5th-youngest '08 MLB SP; good command, but K% dropped from 19.3 in AAA to 14.0 in bigs   22.4   WAS   MLB
48   Greg Reynolds   RHP   A wild card due to aggressive promotions; 2nd overall pick in '06; 4.7% BB, 18.4% K in AA ('07)   23.4   COL   MLB
49   Jordan Zimmerman   RHP   Adjusted well to AA after mediocre first 2 months (27.7% K, 6.3% BB in 2nd half); 2.54 A+ FIP   22.4   WAS   AA
50   Scott Olsen   LHP   Was among bottom 10 NL SP by FIP in '07 and '08; could be again now that he's out of Florida   24.8   WAS   MLB
Honorables: Jo-Jo Reyes (ATL), John Lannan (WAS), Jhoulys Chacin (COL), Carlos Carrasco (PHI), Jeremy Hellickson (TB), and Michael Inoa (OAK).
* Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production            
** Ages are as of November 1st, 2008            
*** Level is the highest level the player has reached            
                         
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Questions about this list can be directed toward Adam Foster at adamf@projectprospect.com.