Top 30 Pitching Prospects

February 18, 2009
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All Positions: C / 1B / 2B / SS / 3B / CF / OF / P

Top 30 Pitching Prospects
No.   Player   Pos.   Comments   Age   Org   Lvl
1   David Price   LHP   From 2007's No. 1 pick to MLB in 15 months; 7.2% BB, 24.3% K in '08, lots of GBs (appx. 54%)   23.1   TB   MLB
2   Madison Bumgarner   LHP   Nearly flawless pro debut (29.4% K, 4.0% BB, 2.14 FIP) as the 4th-youngest SP in Low-A   19.2   SF   A
3   Brett Anderson   LHP   Dominated A+/AA last year (6.2% BB, 26.3% K, 57+% GB); Ks rose by 4.7% from A+ to AA   20.7   OAK   AA
4   Rick Porcello   RHP   Top paid '07 prep arm managed 6.3% BB, 13.7% K, and 65% GB as 5th-youngest player in A+   19.8   DET   A+
5   Derek Holland   LHP   One of biggest breakout arms in '08; 27.6% K, 6.8% BB (A/A+/AA); Juco signee in '06 ($100 K)   22.0   TEX   AA
6   Neftali Feliz   RHP   Posted awesome 32.7% K in A (25.4 in AA), but BB% rose from 8.6 to 12.4 (324 TBF vs. 185)   20.5   TEX   AA
7   Jarrod Parker   RHP   K% doesn't wow you? Notice that Ks rose steadily from 19.4% in April to 30.6% in August   19.9   ARI   A
8   Trevor Cahill   RHP   Stellar strikeout/ground-ball pitcher; command will determine if he peaks as a No. 1 or No. 3-4   20.6   OAK   AA
9   Brian Matusz   LHP   The best NCAA pitcher in the '08 draft class; 40.8% K, 6.4% BB during his final college season   21.7   BAL   NCAA
10   Tommy Hanson   RHP   Power arm who had mediocre '08 walk/ground ball rates (27.8% K, 10.0% BB in AA; 410 TBF)   22.1   ATL   AA
11   Chris Tillman   RHP   Another power arm w/ mediocre '08 BB/ground ball rates (26.6% K, 11.2% BB in AA; 580 TBF)   20.5   BAL   AA
12   Tim Alderson   RHP   Started, finished w/ poor K% (27.1 in July); great command (5.9% BB); 4th-youngest SP in A+   19.9   SF   A+
13   Jordan Zimmermann   RHP   Adjusted well to AA after mediocre first 2 months (27.7% K, 6.3% BB in 2nd half); 2.54 A+ FIP   22.4   WAS   AA
14   Jhoulys Chacin   RHP   Like Holland, broke out in '08; not a huge K guy; 23.5% K, 4.5% BB, 60% GB in 264 A+ TBF   20.8   COL   A+
15   Brett Cecil   LHP   Great GB pitcher had good K and BB rates in A+/AA; BB rise in AAA; pitched 118.2 '08 innings   22.3   TOR   AAA
16   Carlos Carrasco   RHP   2nd-youngest pitcher in AAA last year; K% rose by 5.7, BB% dropped by 1.3 from AA to AAA   21.6   PHI   AAA
17   Jeremy Hellickson   RHP   FSL stud (28.05 K, 2.58 FIP) to AA launching pad (12% HR/Air); great command (3.3% '08 BB)   21.5   TB   AA
18   Michael Inoa   RHP   "He is a very polished pitcher with three above-average pitches" - Billy Beane told ESPN last Jul. 17.1   OAK   n/a
19   Michael Bowden   RHP   Owned AA, decent in AAA (3.1% BB, 18.0% K, 161 TBF); 5th-youngest SP in AAA last year   22.0   BOS   MLB
20   Wade Davis   RHP   Going to be a MLB starter, but his K and BB% lead us to believe he won't be more than a No. 3   23.1   TB   AAA
21   Gio Gonzalez   LHP   Reverted to '06 K and BB% in '08 (AAA): 24.4% K, 11.6% BB, 4.23 FIP; was in PCL, though   23.1   OAK   MLB
22   Michael Main   RHP   Fractured ribs limited him to 58.2 '08 IP; great K% (27.1) could help him break out w/ healthy '09   19.8   TEX   A
23   Jack McGeary   LHP   Signed for 1st-round money in '07; pro career stalled by academics; stellar '08 GCL numbers   19.6   WAS   R
24   Dellin Betances   RHP   High K% pitcher made huge command progress in July/August; healthy '09 could mean breakout   20.6   NYY   A
25   Aaron Poreda   LHP   Solid bet to reach bigs (3.24 AA FIP); upside will hinge on K rate improving, GB staying solid   22.0   CHW   AA
26   Jeff Samardzija   RHP   Irregular development path, regular improvement; 23.6% K, 11.2% BB in 276 AAA/MLB TBF   23.7   CHC   MLB
27   Shairon Martis   RHP   Waiting for 2008's youngest AAA SP? Here's your guy (23.1% K, 9.3% BB, 30% GB, 3.24 FIP).    21.5   WAS   MLB
28   Jon Niese   LHP   Good combo of GB% (52), K% (21.5), BB% (8.4) in AA; Ks declined 2.3% in AAA (4.42 FIP)   22.0   NYM   MLB
29   Jeremy Jeffress   RHP   Huge ceiling, low floor; 29.9% last season in A+ to go with 12.4% BB; only totaled 94.0 '08 IP   21.1   MIL   AA
30   Carlos Gutierrez   RHP   Missed '07 with TJ; 41.4% K, 11.5% BB last year in NCAA (174 TBF); 27th overall pick of '08   22.1   MIN   A+
Honorables: Christian Friedrich (COL), James Simmons (OAK), Jordan Walden (LAA), Kasey Kiker (TEX), and Nick Adenhart (LAA).        
* Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production            
** Ages are as of November 1st, 2008            
*** Level is the highest level the player has reached            
                         
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Questions about this list can be directed toward Adam Foster at adamf@projectprospect.com.