| Battle of the 2010 Top 100s | ||||||||
| Rk | Publisher | aWAR | Comments | Primary Voice(s) | ||||
| 1 | Project Prospect | 174.8 | Only list with Alex Avila; strayed from pack and had solid picks | Carter, Foster, Hamilton | ||||
| 2 | AOL | 154.0 | Did an excellent job in top 20; got sleepers in Minor & Kimbrel | Frankie Piliere | ||||
| 3 | Baseball America | 132.2 | Low risk/reward list didn't identify any sleepers but was solid | Callis, Lingo, Manuel | ||||
| 4 | Baseball Prospectus | 130.9 | Best pick was Walden; emphasis on young arms is a handicap | Kevin Goldstein | ||||
| 5 | ESPN | 126.1 | Sleeper call on Hosmer could put Law ahead of BP next year | Keith Law | ||||
| * aWAR is an adjusted WAR value (see methodology below for more info) | ||||||||
| Methodology: Each list was given weighted WAR values based on how high or low it ranked players (starting at 150% for | ||||||||
| its No. 1 prospect and dropping to 51% for its No. 100. Players who appeared on only one list gained an added 50% WAR | ||||||||
| multiplier. Players who appeared on every list but one had their value (with an added 50% WAR multiplier) subtracted | ||||||||
| from that list's total value. Email adamf@projectprospect.com for a copy of my spreadsheet with the data used. | ||||||||
| Most Valuable Sleeper Picks to Date | ||||||||
| Rk | Player | WAR | Comments | Ranked solely by | ||||
| 1 | Alex Avila | 7.1 | Had breakout year (.383 wOBA) while playing passable D at C | Project Prospect | ||||
| 2 | Jon Niese | 5.1 | Only 157.0 IP in 2011 but he was quality No. 2 when healthy | Project Prospect | ||||
| 3 | Danny Espinosa | 4.1 | Hit a little & played average defense as a 24-year-old regular | Project Prospect | ||||
| 4 | Craig Kimbrel | 3.7 | Easily led all MLB relievers in 2011 with 127 K (and in 77.0 IP) | Frankie Piliere | ||||
| 5 | Ian Desmond | 3.2 | Has been slightly better than replacement level in 1,000+ PA | Project Prospect | ||||
| 6 | Jonathan Lucroy | 2.8 | Started hot, finished cold; may be a platoon catcher long-term | Project Prospect | ||||
| 7 | Jordan Walden | 2.1 | Tied for 12th among rookie RP in Ks with 67; 2nd in saves | Baseball Prospectus | ||||
| 8 | Jemile Weeks | 2.0 | Inconsistent defender w/ gap power who made lots of contact | Project Prospect | ||||
| 9 | Mike Minor | 2.0 | 4th-lowest FIP among rookie SP; split year between AAA/MLB | Frankie Piliere | ||||
| 10 | Carlos Carrasco | 1.7 | Made fewer mistake pitches in '11 than '10 but Ks dropped | Project Prospect | ||||
| Biggest Omissions to Date | ||||||||
| Rk | Player | WAR | Comments | Omitted solely by | ||||
| 1 | Daniel Hudson | 7.2 | Pitched like a No. 1/2 SP; not a big K guy; excellent command | ESPN | ||||
| 2 | Jhoulys Chacin | 5.6 | GB artist with swing-through stuff & ace upside but high BB% | Baseball Prospectus | ||||
| 3 | Jose Tabata | 3.1 | Broken hand ended lackluster season early; limited power | Baseball America | ||||
| 4 | Ben Revere | 1.8 | 80 Speed CF has 20 power but elite contact skills and defense | Project Prospect | ||||
| 5 | Ryan Kalish | 0.6 | A shoulder injury kept him out for most of the 2011 season | Baseball America | ||||
| Highest Ranked Prospects Who Have 0 WAR | ||||||||
| Rk | Player | Ave. Rk | Comments | Ranked highest by | ||||
| 1 | Martin Perez | 14.8 | Finshed '11 in AAA, where his K% steadily climbed over 49.0 IP | ESPN (7) | ||||
| 2 | Chris Carter | 24.6 | Stock has taken a huge hit; poor defensive 1B who Ks too much | Baseball Prospectus (11) | ||||
| 3 | Michael Taylor | 24.8 | Stock has taken a huge hit; poor defensive OF w/ limited pow. | Project Prospect (13) | ||||
| 4 | Casey Kelly | 26.2 | Logged solid AA season & will almost certainly be in bigs in '12 | ESPN (18) | ||||
| 5 | Ryan Westmoreland | 26.6 | Cavernous brain malformation has kept him out of live action | Baseball Prospectus (14) | ||||
| 6 | Aaron Hicks | 30.8 | Keeps walking, hitting for limited power and playing a good CF | ESPN/BA (19) | ||||
| 7 | Derek Norris | 32.6 | Fresh off a big power season; good chance to reach bigs in '12 | Baseball Prospectus (28) | ||||
| 8 | Christian Friedrich | 38.2 | Elbow injury in 2010 & poor 2nd half in 2011; best bet as a RP? | Frankie Piliere (12) | ||||
| 9 | Josh Bell | 39.0 | K prone 3B has played OK defense but he hasn't hit in the bigs | Project Prospect (16) | ||||
| 10 | Tyler Matzek | 43.0 | Finally started finding his command in August after brutal year | ESPN (22) | ||||
... 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010