Battle of the 2010 Top 100s | ||||||||
Rk | Publisher | aWAR | Comments | Primary Voice(s) | ||||
1 | Baseball America | 458.2 | Nailed sleepers in Stubbs & Blackburn; Cahill was only big omission | Callis, Lingo, Manuel | ||||
2 | Baseball Prospectus | 442.7 | Conservative list with Revere as its best sleeper and no big omissions | Kevin Goldstein | ||||
3 | Project Prospect | 416.3 | Had Jesus Montero & Bumgarner as sleepers; big miss in Scherzer | Adam Foster | ||||
4 | ESPN | 401.8 | Omissions have detracted more value than he gained with sleepers | Keith Law | ||||
* aWAR is an adjusted WAR value (see methodology below for more info) | ||||||||
Methodology: Each list was given weighted WAR values based on how high or low it ranked players (starting at 150% for | ||||||||
its No. 1 prospect and dropping to 51% for its No. 100. Players who appeared on only one list gained an added 50% WAR | ||||||||
multiplier. Players who appeared on every list but one had their value (with an added 50% WAR multiplier) subtracted | ||||||||
from that list's total value. Email adamf@projectprospect.com for a copy of my spreadsheet with the data used. | ||||||||
Most Valuable Sleeper Picks to Date | ||||||||
Rk | Player | WAR | Comments | Ranked soley by | ||||
1 | Tommy Hanson | 8.7 | Community college late-rounder had big pro debut; not a ton of hype | ESPN | ||||
2 | Drew Stubbs | 8.0 | High strikeouts in Low-A weren't a good sign for toolsy college player | Baseball America | ||||
3 | Madison Bumgarner | 7.3 | We scouting him in HS & loved what we saw; didn't have a SL then | Project Prospect | ||||
4 | Nick Blackburn | 6.6 | Low walk/strikeout upper minors SP who fooled big leaguers for 2 yrs. | Baseball America | ||||
5 | Matt Harrison | 5.5 | Was the same pitcher (numbers-wise) in AA as he's been in the bigs | Project Prospect | ||||
6 | Jeff Niemann | 5.3 | Had health problems & was getting a little old for the minors by 2007 | Baseball America | ||||
7 | Jordan Zimmermann | 4.9 | 2nd rounder from D-III tore up short-season in 2007; not a ton of hype | ESPN | ||||
8 | Felipe Paulino | 4.1 | Hard-thrower reached the bigs in in '07 on the heels of good AA year | ESPN | ||||
9 | Brett Cecil | 3.4 | 2007's 38th overall pick (University of Maryland); owned short-season | ESPN | ||||
10 | Aaron Laffey | 3.3 | Elite GB% & low K% in '07; had a good '09; hasn't done much since | Project Prospect | ||||
Biggest Omissions to Date | ||||||||
Rk | Player | WAR | Comments | Omitted soley by | ||||
1 | Max Scherzer | 10.9 | 11th overall pick ('06, Missouri) was awesome in A+ & good in AA | Project Prospect | ||||
2 | Jair Jurrjens | 10.5 | Very good in AA as 21-yr-old; reached bigs in '07 & K'd only 10.7% | ESPN | ||||
3 | Brett Anderson | 7.5 | Good command lefty was in A+ at age 19; didn't throw very hard then | ESPN | ||||
4 | Gio Gonzalez | 7.3 | 21-yr-old AA lefty with tons of Ks; his command wasn't the greatest | ESPN | ||||
5 | Trevor Cahill | 5.3 | 2006 2nd rounder had elite K% and insane GB numbers in Low-A | Baseball America | ||||
6 | Neil Walker | 4.7 | Good contact hitter with patience & power did well as 21-yr-old in AA | Project Prospect | ||||
7 | Carlos Carrasco | 1.7 | Pitched well for 20-yr-old in A+; performance took a steep drop in AA | Project Prospect | ||||
8 | Taylor Teagarden | 1.7 | Excellent power, terrible K-rate; didn't have much MLB value in '10-'11 | Project Prospect | ||||
9 | Ryan Kalish | 0.6 | Teenager who had yet to play a game in full-season ball as of 2007 | ESPN | ||||
10 | Sean Gallagher | 0.5 | Had success as 21-yr-old in AAA then struggled for 14 IP in the bigs | Baseball Prospectus | ||||
Highest Ranked Prospects Who Have 0 WAR | ||||||||
Rk | Player | Ave. Rk | Comments | Ranked highest by | ||||
1 | Jake McGee | 22.3 | Was coming off dominant A+ stint at age 21; high BB% in AA promo | Project Prospect (8) | ||||
2 | Fernando Martinez | 25.3 | Played in AA as an 18-yr-old but didn't hit for power; had injury probs | ESPN (10) | ||||
3 | Jordan Schafer | 27.3 | CF cruised through A & A+ showing power, patience and raw speed | Baseball Prospectus (17) | ||||
4 | Angel Villalona | 27.8 | Showed some power and contact ability as 17-yr-old in rookie ball | ESPN (20) | ||||
5 | Brandon Wood | 27.8 | Solid line in AAA, except for 24.6% K; 12 K in 33 PA in MLB debut | Baseball America (16) | ||||
6 | Matt LaPorta | 29.8 | Surprise 7th overall pick in '07 played hurt after signing; good AFL | Baseball America (23) | ||||
7 | Chris Marrero | 34.3 | Started slow in Low-A before finding power & totalling 23 HR (A/A+) | Project Prospect (18) | ||||
8 | Josh Vitters | 34.3 | 3rd overall pick in '07 was thought of as an excellent pure hitter | ESPN (17) | ||||
9 | Jeff Clement | 37.5 | 24-yr-old catcher had caught up to AAA pitching in 2nd full season | Project Prospect (31) | ||||
10 | Chin-lung Hu | 45.7 | Good contact bat; showed some pop but no BB as 23-yr-old in AAA | Baseball Prospectus (32) | ||||
Top Performers by WAR | ||||||||
Rk | Player | WAR | Comments | Ranked highest by | ||||
1 | Evan Longoria | 26.9 | Ranked 1st (ESPN), 2nd (BA), 3rd (PP/BP); 3B with pwr & patience | ESPN | ||||
2 | Joey Votto | 22.8 | Ranked 21st (PP/BP), 44th (BA), 56th (ESPN); upside questioned | Tied between PP and BP | ||||
3 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 17.3 | Ranked 13th (BA), 16th (BP), 19th (ESPN) and 22nd (PP) | Baseball America | ||||
4 | Clayton Kershaw | 17.1 | Ranked 5th (BP), 6th (PP/ESPN), 7th (BA); near flawless P prospect | Baseball Prospectus | ||||
5 | Carlos Gonzalez | 13.8 | Ranked 22nd (BA), 26th (BP), 38th (PP) and 42nd (ESPN) | Baseball America | ||||
6 | Andrew McCutchen | 12.9 | Ranked 12th (ESPN), 14th (BA), 24th (PP/BP); speedy CF w/ pop | ESPN | ||||
7 | Jay Bruce | 11.3 | Ranked 1st (PP/BA/BP) and 2nd (ESPN); from A+ to AAA at age 20 | Tied between BA and BP | ||||
8 | Max Scherzer | 10.9 | Ranked 66th (BA), 81st (ESPN), 90th (BP); good upsite & A+ #s | Baseball America | ||||
9 | Geovany Soto | 10.8 | Ranked 32nd (ESPN), 37th BP, 47th (BA) and 56th (PP) | ESPN | ||||
10 | Justin Masterson | 10.6 | Ranked 53rd (BP), 57th (PP), 58th (ESPN) and 64th (BA) | Baseball Prospectus |
... 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010