Top 10 Double-A Pitching Prospects by Production

November 13, 2011
. . . . . .Rookie / Short-Season / Low-A / High-A / Double-A / Triple-A / Hitters
@AdamWFoster's 2011 Offseason Prospect Rankings
Rk   Player   Pos   Comments   Age   Org
1   Robert Erlin (eBay)   LHP   K% went from 31% in A+ to 24% in AA; maintained elite walk rate   20.9   SD
2   Shelby Miller (eBay)   RHP   Big jump in GB% from A+ to AA (35% to 42%); Ks dropped by 12%   20.7   STL
3   Matt Moore (eBay)   LHP   AA success translated to AAA; could surface as a No. 1-2 in 2012   22.0   TB
4   Tyler Skaggs (eBay)   LHP   Dropped BB% from 8.2% (A+) to 6.6% (AA); his GB% in A+ >> AA   20.0   ARI
5   Martin Perez (eBay)   LHP   Made progress in AA from '10 to '11; carried some success to AAA   20.2   TEX
6   Erasmo Ramirez (eBay)   RHP   Youngster w/ thick build; doesn't get lots of Ks; solid all around   21.2   SEA
7   Jeurys Familia (eBay)   RHP   Breakout season; also would have ranked 7th on A+ list if eligible   21.7   NYM
8   Nathan Eovaldi (eBay)   RHP   Inconsistent AA performer finished year in MLB & pitched OK   21.4   LAD
9   Randall Delgado (eBay)   RHP   Walk rate fluctuated a lot; will nibble but has stuff to be a No. 2-3 21.4   ATL
10   Jacob Turner (eBay)   RHP   Ks steadily dropped in AA; great in AAA (17.1 IP) & reached bigs   20.1   DET
Best of the Rest
    Manny Banuelos (eBay)   LHP   Only being held back by his command; has top-of-rotation upside 20.3   NYY
    Juan Oramas (eBay)   LHP   Fly-ball pitcher who had a studly 2nd half; 26% K in July-Sept.   21.1   SD
    Henderson Alvarez (eBay)   RHP   Very good GB pitcher who doesn't walk many & has power stuff   21.2   TOR
    Allen Webster (eBay)   RHP   K% dropped by 9.3% from A+ to AA; GB% went up (49% vs. 53%)   21.4   LAD
    Joseph Wieland (eBay)   RHP   BB% rose after only issuing 4 BB in 85.2 A+ IP; was strong in AA   21.4   SD
    Casey Kelly (eBay)   RHP   Outstanding GB rate 2nd time around in AA; K% dropped, though   21.7   SD
    Trey McNutt (eBay)   RHP   Throws hard and has a good breaking ball; not a lot of Ks in AA   21.9   CHC
    Dallas Beeler (eBay)   RHP   Elite GB pitcher who missed time w/ shoulder & oblique injuries   22.1   CHC
    Matt Harvey (eBay)   RHP   Got lots of GB in A+ & AA while racking up Ks & not too many BB   22.3   NYM
    Brad Peacock (eBay)   RHP   Big K% drop from AA to AAA isn't a good sign for a pitcher his age   23.4   WAS
* Ages are as of July 1, 2011            
** Minimum 50 innings pitched        
*** If eligible, James Paxton would have ranked 7th on this list        

Warning: These rankings were created without utilizing scouting information. The list was assembled as a conversation starter/watch list by way of a relatively simple, objective prospect finding system. After weighing in scouting information, our rankings of players will change.

Methodology: Only players who were a deviation below level-average age were considered for the list above. The average High-A pitcher age in 2011 was approximately 25, with a standard deviation of approximately 2. Players were ranked based simply on deviations from level-average age, strikeout percentage, walk percentage and ground-ball percentage.