Top 30 Pitching Prospects

February 18, 2009

 

All Positions: C / 1B / 2B / SS / 3B / CF / OF / P

Top 30 Pitching Prospects
No. Player Pos. Comments Age Org Lvl
1 David Price LHP From 2007's No. 1 pick to MLB in 15 months; 7.2% BB, 24.3% K in '08, lots of GBs (appx. 54%) 23.1 TB MLB
2 Madison Bumgarner LHP Nearly flawless pro debut (29.4% K, 4.0% BB, 2.14 FIP) as the 4th-youngest SP in Low-A 19.2 SF A
3 Brett Anderson LHP Dominated A+/AA last year (6.2% BB, 26.3% K, 57+% GB); Ks rose by 4.7% from A+ to AA 20.7 OAK AA
4 Rick Porcello RHP Top paid '07 prep arm managed 6.3% BB, 13.7% K, and 65% GB as 5th-youngest player in A+ 19.8 DET A+
5 Derek Holland LHP One of biggest breakout arms in '08; 27.6% K, 6.8% BB (A/A+/AA); Juco signee in '06 ($100 K) 22.0 TEX AA
6 Neftali Feliz RHP Posted awesome 32.7% K in A (25.4 in AA), but BB% rose from 8.6 to 12.4 (324 TBF vs. 185) 20.5 TEX AA
7 Jarrod Parker RHP K% doesn't wow you? Notice that Ks rose steadily from 19.4% in April to 30.6% in August 19.9 ARI A
8 Trevor Cahill RHP Stellar strikeout/ground-ball pitcher; command will determine if he peaks as a No. 1 or No. 3-4 20.6 OAK AA
9 Brian Matusz LHP The best NCAA pitcher in the '08 draft class; 40.8% K, 6.4% BB during his final college season 21.7 BAL NCAA
10 Tommy Hanson RHP Power arm who had mediocre '08 walk/ground ball rates (27.8% K, 10.0% BB in AA; 410 TBF) 22.1 ATL AA
11 Chris Tillman RHP Another power arm w/ mediocre '08 BB/ground ball rates (26.6% K, 11.2% BB in AA; 580 TBF) 20.5 BAL AA
12 Tim Alderson RHP Started, finished w/ poor K% (27.1 in July); great command (5.9% BB); 4th-youngest SP in A+ 19.9 SF A+
13 Jordan Zimmermann RHP Adjusted well to AA after mediocre first 2 months (27.7% K, 6.3% BB in 2nd half); 2.54 A+ FIP 22.4 WAS AA
14 Jhoulys Chacin RHP Like Holland, broke out in '08; not a huge K guy; 23.5% K, 4.5% BB, 60% GB in 264 A+ TBF 20.8 COL A+
15 Brett Cecil LHP Great GB pitcher had good K and BB rates in A+/AA; BB rise in AAA; pitched 118.2 '08 innings 22.3 TOR AAA
16 Carlos Carrasco RHP 2nd-youngest pitcher in AAA last year; K% rose by 5.7, BB% dropped by 1.3 from AA to AAA 21.6 PHI AAA
17 Jeremy Hellickson RHP FSL stud (28.05 K, 2.58 FIP) to AA launching pad (12% HR/Air); great command (3.3% '08 BB) 21.5 TB AA
18 Michael Inoa RHP "He is a very polished pitcher with three above-average pitches" - Billy Beane told ESPN last Jul. 17.1 OAK n/a
19 Michael Bowden RHP Owned AA, decent in AAA (3.1% BB, 18.0% K, 161 TBF); 5th-youngest SP in AAA last year 22.0 BOS MLB
20 Wade Davis RHP Going to be a MLB starter, but his K and BB% lead us to believe he won't be more than a No. 3 23.1 TB AAA
21 Gio Gonzalez LHP Reverted to '06 K and BB% in '08 (AAA): 24.4% K, 11.6% BB, 4.23 FIP; was in PCL, though 23.1 OAK MLB
22 Michael Main RHP Fractured ribs limited him to 58.2 '08 IP; great K% (27.1) could help him break out w/ healthy '09 19.8 TEX A
23 Jack McGeary LHP Signed for 1st-round money in '07; pro career stalled by academics; stellar '08 GCL numbers 19.6 WAS R
24 Dellin Betances RHP High K% pitcher made huge command progress in July/August; healthy '09 could mean breakout 20.6 NYY A
25 Aaron Poreda LHP Solid bet to reach bigs (3.24 AA FIP); upside will hinge on K rate improving, GB staying solid 22.0 CHW AA
26 Jeff Samardzija RHP Irregular development path, regular improvement; 23.6% K, 11.2% BB in 276 AAA/MLB TBF 23.7 CHC MLB
27 Shairon Martis RHP Waiting for 2008's youngest AAA SP? Here's your guy (23.1% K, 9.3% BB, 30% GB, 3.24 FIP). 21.5 WAS MLB
28 Jon Niese LHP Good combo of GB% (52), K% (21.5), BB% (8.4) in AA; Ks declined 2.3% in AAA (4.42 FIP) 22.0 NYM MLB
29 Jeremy Jeffress RHP Huge ceiling, low floor; 29.9% last season in A+ to go with 12.4% BB; only totaled 94.0 '08 IP 21.1 MIL AA
30 Carlos Gutierrez RHP Missed '07 with TJ; 41.4% K, 11.5% BB last year in NCAA (174 TBF); 27th overall pick of '08 22.1 MIN A+
Honorables: Christian Friedrich (COL), James Simmons (OAK), Jordan Walden (LAA), Kasey Kiker (TEX), and Nick Adenhart (LAA).
* Our rankings combine a player's ceiling with the odds that he'll reach it and favor recent production
** Ages are as of November 1st, 2008
*** Level is the highest level the player has reached
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Questions about this list can be directed toward Adam Foster at .