High-A Out Percentage Leaders

September 27, 2009

All Levels: AAA/AA/A+/A

2009 High-A Out Percentage Leaders
Rk. Name Pos. O%* K% BB% Age TBF League Team
1 Adalberto Flores RHP 0.720 30.5% 8.8% 22.8 239 Calif Bakersfield
2 Jeremy McBryde RHP 0.714 26.1% 6.1% 22.4 314 Calif Lake Elsinore
3 Michael Montgomery LHP 0.712 21.7% 5.7% 20.2 212 Caro Wilmington
4 Kyle Drabek RHP 0.710 29.7% 7.6% 21.7 249 FSL Clearwater
5 Scott Barnes LHP 0.707 24.7% 7.2% 22.0 401 Calif San Jose
6 Steven Hensley RHP 0.702 23.0% 6.4% 22.7 469 Calif High Desert
7 Ben Hornbeck LHP 0.702 33.8% 9.8% 22.1 328 Calif Stockton
8 Tim Collins LHP 0.700 36.7% 10.4% 20.0 270 FSL Dunedin
9 Daniel Duffy LHP 0.700 24.2% 7.9% 20.7 516 Caro Wilmington
10 Michael Cisco RHP 0.699 17.1% 5.0% 22.3 298 FSL Clearwater
11 Tanner Roark RHP 0.696 25.7% 7.6% 22.9 354 Calif Bakersfield
12 Trevor Harden RHP 0.695 15.4% 5.6% 22.0 408 Calif Visalia
13 Brian Matusz LHP 0.694 26.8% 7.6% 22.6 276 Caro Frederick
14 D.J. Mitchell RHP 0.694 22.8% 6.4% 22.3 202 FSL Tampa
15 Anthony Capra LHP 0.694 30.9% 9.7% 22.4 217 Calif Stockton
16 Christopher Withrow RHP 0.693 34.0% 11.3% 20.4 212 Calif Inland Empire
17 Brett Jacobson RHP 0.693 19.0% 7.4% 22.8 231 FSL Lakeland
18 Steven Johnson RHP 0.691 24.6% 10.1% 22.0 414 Calif Inland Empire
19 Michael Colla RHP 0.689 18.4% 6.7% 22.7 282 Caro Lynchburg
20 Lester Oliveros RHP 0.688 25.0% 7.2% 21.3 236 FSL Lakeland
21 Paolo Espino RHP 0.685 21.1% 7.1% 22.7 478 Caro Kinston
22 Bryan Shaw RHP 0.685 23.0% 7.8% 21.8 230 Calif Visalia
23 Ryan Brasier RHP 0.684 22.0% 7.6% 22.0 422 Calif Rancho Cucamonga
24 Blake Beavan RHP 0.683 16.5% 5.2% 20.6 310 Calif Bakersfield
25 Jeremy Bleich LHP 0.683 16.9% 6.6% 22.2 332 FSL Tampa
26 Carlos Hernandez LHP 0.683 19.2% 7.7% 22.5 468 Calif Stockton
27 Edgar Osuna LHP 0.682 17.6% 4.4% 21.8 319 Caro Myrtle Beach
28 Stephen Fife RHP 0.682 23.2% 4.5% 22.9 220 Caro Salem
29 Edward Paredes LHP 0.681 21.4% 7.1% 22.9 294 Calif High Desert
30 Ethan Hollingsworth RHP 0.681 20.9% 6.0% 22.3 268 Calif Modesto
31 Jenrry Mejia RHP 0.681 21.1% 7.7% 19.9 209 FSL St. Lucie
32 Christopher Hicks RHP 0.681 17.1% 6.5% 22.6 603 Calif Lancaster
33 Bryan Price RHP 0.680 23.9% 8.0% 22.8 238 Caro Salem
34 Chen Lee RHP 0.679 27.7% 8.0% 22.9 350 Caro Kinston
35 Leandro Cespedes RHP 0.677 19.6% 8.8% 22.4 592 Calif Lancaster
36 Christian Friedrich LHP 0.676 29.8% 9.0% 22.2 312 Calif Modesto
37 Timothy Sexton RHP 0.674 14.8% 5.0% 22.2 676 Calif Inland Empire
38 Richard Sullivan LHP 0.674 20.4% 6.5% 22.4 201 Caro Myrtle Beach
39 Richard Zagone LHP 0.673 20.9% 7.8% 22.9 282 Caro Frederick
40 Zachary Britton LHP 0.673 21.9% 9.2% 21.7 599 Caro Frederick
41 William Atwood LHP 0.673 20.2% 6.9% 22.6 583 Caro Potomac
42 Steven Geltz RHP 0.673 26.8% 11.8% 21.8 272 Calif Rancho Cucamonga
43 Ronald Uviedo RHP 0.673 18.5% 6.6% 22.9 426 Caro Lynchburg
44 Richard Bleier LHP 0.672 17.4% 3.2% 22.4 622 Calif Bakersfield
45 Tom Milone LHP 0.672 17.3% 5.9% 22.6 611 Caro Potomac
46 Clayton Tanner LHP 0.672 24.6% 6.2% 21.8 337 Calif San Jose
47 Jacob Rasner RHP 0.672 18.6% 8.0% 22.8 527 Caro Winston-Salem
48 Thomas Palica LHP 0.672 26.5% 9.4% 22.1 223 Caro Myrtle Beach
49 Tyson Ross RHP 0.669 21.7% 8.7% 22.4 378 Calif Stockton
50 Eddie McKiernan LHP 0.669 20.6% 8.7% 20.5 253 Caro Myrtle Beach
* O% stands for Out Percentage, which is explained below.    

 

I've had multiple requests for 2009 Dominance Factor (DF) lists, but I'm hoping this data will be even more valuable. Before you go shaking your head about another new, funky stat, hear me out.

Out percentage is meant to be a simple, production-based stat to help people create pitcher watch lists. The stat is designed to churn out production scores for pitchers that are largely unaffected by park and league. I'd be surprised if it has much predictive value. And it's meant to identify talent more than rank it. I calculate Out Percentage using the formula below:

O% = (K + .72GB + .79FB + .26LD) / (BB + IBB + K + sac hits + HBP + GB + bunts + LD + FB)

The average Out Percentage among my sample High-A 2009 population was 0.657. The value, which factors in strikeouts as well as ball-in-play predictions, is essentially the reciprocal of on-base percentage against.

The coefficients assigned to each of the four outcomes in the numerator above are the percent chance each occurance will turn into an out, as researched in this article. Though not all strikeouts turn into outs, I've utilized a coefficient of one for strikeouts, opposed to something like 0.99.

Important!

I set an age maximum of 22.9 years old as of September 1st, 2009, and a total batters faced minimum of 200 for this list.

While I tried to make corrections when I saw errors, I did come across some data from the database I drew from being labeled as season total, opposed to home or road total. There may be some lines above that are only home or road samples.

This list is not our rankings of the pitchers above. Not only did quite a few relief pitchers face enough batters to qualify for it, like Flores and Collins, but I wouldn't take any of the guys on this list over Brian Matusz. That's crazy. But I would suggest giving Jeremy McBryde and Ben Hornbeck close looks, if you haven't already.

Lastly, note that I have seen a fair amount of fluxuation in this stat, both at home versus on the road and from level to level. Be careful with guys who have small sample sizes.

 

Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.