Triple-A Out Percentage Leaders

September 28, 2009

All Levels: AAA/AA/A+/A

2009 Triple-A Out Percentage Leaders
Rk. Name Pos. O%* K% BB% Age TBF League Team
1 Jeremy Hellickson RHP 0.731 31.8% 6.8% 22.4 220 IL Durham
2 Thomas Hanson RHP 0.720 35.0% 6.6% 23.0 257 IL Gwinnett Co
3 David Hernandez RHP 0.716 34.1% 7.8% 24.3 232 IL Norfolk
4 Mark Melancon RHP 0.710 26.0% 5.3% 24.4 208 IL Scranton/WB
5 Rick Vanden Hurk RHP 0.695 21.2% 6.6% 24.3 241 PCL New Orleans
6 Hector Rondon RHP 0.692 20.4% 4.1% 21.5 314 IL Columbus
7 Lucas French LHP 0.684 22.0% 6.1% 24.0 328 IL Toledo
8 Christopher Tillman RHP 0.681 24.8% 6.5% 21.4 399 IL Norfolk
9 Trevor Bell RHP 0.680 13.3% 5.2% 22.9 286 PCL Salt Lake
10 Vincent Mazzaro RHP 0.675 19.1% 7.4% 22.9 230 PCL Sacramento
11 Sean O'Sullivan RHP 0.675 15.9% 6.6% 22.0 301 PCL Salt Lake
12 Clayton Mortensen RHP 0.674 18.5% 7.7% 24.4 443 PCL Memphis
13 Shairon Martis RHP 0.672 12.4% 5.6% 22.4 323 IL Syracuse
14 Gio Gonzalez LHP 0.672 27.7% 13.3% 24.0 256 PCL Sacramento
15 Homer Bailey RHP 0.670 21.6% 7.1% 23.3 379 IL Louisville
16 Mitch Atkins RHP 0.668 19.4% 7.9% 23.9 656 PCL Iowa
17 Jonathon Niese LHP 0.667 20.5% 6.5% 22.9 400 IL Buffalo
18 George Kontos RHP 0.666 17.9% 9.6% 24.2 218 IL Scranton/WB
19 Ross Detwiler LHP 0.666 19.1% 9.1% 23.5 220 IL Syracuse
20 P.J. Walters RHP 0.666 21.0% 8.2% 24.5 539 PCL Memphis
21 Collin Balester RHP 0.665 15.0% 7.8% 23.3 474 IL Syracuse
22 Cesar Valdez RHP 0.665 14.3% 7.2% 24.5 419 PCL Reno
23 Brad Lincoln RHP 0.664 16.3% 3.9% 24.3 257 IL Indianapolis
24 Andrew Carpenter RHP 0.664 18.3% 7.2% 24.3 655 IL Lehigh Valley
25 Neftali Feliz RHP 0.663 23.2% 9.3% 21.3 323 PCL Oklahoma
26 Brett Cecil LHP 0.660 14.6% 8.7% 23.2 219 PCL Las Vegas
27 Wade Davis RHP 0.660 20.8% 8.9% 24.0 673 IL Durham
28 Kevin Mulvey RHP 0.658 17.5% 8.4% 24.3 644 IL Rochester
29 Dillon Gee RHP 0.658 20.1% 7.7% 23.4 209 IL Buffalo
30 Bud Norris RHP 0.657 22.0% 10.4% 24.5 509 PCL Round Rock
31 Jose Ascanio RHP 0.655 21.5% 8.2% 24.4 219 PCL Iowa
32 James Russell LHP 0.655 16.0% 6.6% 23.7 287 PCL Iowa
33 Brandon Hynick RHP 0.655 14.0% 7.3% 24.5 656 PCL Colorado Springs
34 Gabriel Hernandez RHP 0.654 15.3% 7.5% 23.3 641 PCL Tacoma
35 Blake Parker RHP 0.653 26.6% 12.4% 24.2 218 PCL Iowa
36 Michael Bowden RHP 0.652 17.0% 9.1% 23.0 517 IL Pawtucket
37 Carlos Carrasco RHP 0.652 22.4% 7.6% 22.5 501 IL Lehigh Valley
38 Bradley Mills LHP 0.650 19.9% 9.7% 24.5 362 PCL Las Vegas
39 Ryan Webb RHP 0.647 19.2% 7.4% 23.6 203 PCL Sacramento
40 James Simmons RHP 0.645 14.9% 8.7% 22.9 542 PCL Sacramento
41 Anthony Swarzak RHP 0.644 13.6% 6.4% 24.0 330 IL Rochester
42 Chuck Lofgren LHP 0.643 14.7% 7.8% 23.6 423 IL Columbus
43 Todd Redmond RHP 0.643 16.7% 7.4% 24.3 635 IL Gwinnett Co
44 Jake Arrieta RHP 0.640 19.5% 8.2% 23.5 401 IL Norfolk
45 Henry Alberto Rodriguez RHP 0.639 34.3% 18.4% 22.5 207 PCL Sacramento
46 William Inman RHP 0.635 14.2% 8.7% 22.6 289 PCL Portland
47 Tommy Hunter RHP 0.633 16.7% 7.6% 23.2 210 PCL Oklahoma
48 Esmil Rogers RHP 0.633 16.0% 12.2% 24.1 287 PCL Colorado Springs
49 Adam Ottavino RHP 0.629 18.5% 12.8% 23.8 642 PCL Memphis
50 Ivan Nova RHP 0.625 14.7% 9.6% 22.7 292 IL Scranton/WB
* O% stands for Out Percentage, which is explained below.    

I've had multiple requests for 2009 Dominance Factor (DF) lists, but I'm hoping this data will be even more valuable. Before you go shaking your head about another new, funky stat, hear me out.

Out percentage is meant to be a simple, production-based stat to help people create pitcher watch lists. The stat is designed to churn out production scores for pitchers that are largely unaffected by park and league. I'd be surprised if it has much predictive value. And it's meant to identify talent more than rank it. I calculate Out Percentage using the formula below:

O% = (K + .72GB + .79FB + .26LD) / (BB + IBB + K + sac hits + HBP + GB + bunts + LD + FB)

The average Out Percentage among my sample Triple-A 2009 population was 0.660 -- it was 0.641 in Double-A. The value, which factors in strikeouts as well as ball-in-play predictions, is essentially the reciprocal of on-base percentage against.

The coefficients assigned to each of the four outcomes in the numerator above are the percent chance each occurance will turn into an out, as researched in this article. Though not all strikeouts turn into outs, I've utilized a coefficient of one for strikeouts, opposed to something like 0.99.

Important!

I set an age maximum of 24.5 years old as of September 1st, 2009, and a total batters faced minimum of 200 for this list.

While I tried to make corrections when I saw errors, I did come across some data from the database I drew from being labeled as season total, opposed to home or road total. There may be some lines above that are only home or road samples.

This list is not our rankings of the pitchers above. Some of the top pitchers on this list are relievers who barely qualified, like Melancon.

Lastly, note that I have seen a fair amount of fluxuation in this stat, both at home versus on the road and from level to level. Be careful with guys who have small sample sizes. Jeremy Hellickson's Triple-A performance was better than his Double-A, which may be due to small samples.

 

Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.