Double-A Out Percentage Leaders

September 27, 2009

All Levels: AAA/AA/A+/A

2009 Double-A Out Percentage Leaders
Rk. Name Pos. O%* K% BB% Age TBF League Team
1 Daniel Hudson RHP 0.721 29.8% 4.7% 22.5 215 Sou Birmingham
2 Hector Rondon RHP 0.714 25.4% 5.6% 21.5 287 East Akron
3 Jake Arrieta RHP 0.711 28.7% 9.4% 23.5 244 East Bowie
4 Brad Lincoln RHP 0.710 21.8% 6.0% 24.3 298 East Altoona
5 Jeremy Hellickson RHP 0.706 27.4% 6.2% 22.4 226 Sou Montgomery
6 Josh Judy RHP 0.701 31.3% 9.0% 23.6 201 East Akron
7 Junichi Tazawa RHP 0.696 22.3% 6.6% 23.3 394 East Portland
8 Troy Patton LHP 0.693 18.1% 6.9% 24.0 260 East Bowie
9 Esmil Rogers RHP 0.691 21.6% 4.9% 24.1 384 Tex Tulsa
10 Evan Scribner RHP 0.691 26.4% 6.9% 24.1 288 Tex San Antonio
11 Zach Putnam RHP 0.687 23.3% 7.3% 22.2 245 East Akron
12 Luis Marte RHP 0.686 18.9% 6.3% 23.0 445 East Erie
13 Zachary Simons RHP 0.682 23.6% 9.9% 24.3 212 East Erie
14 Deolis Guerra RHP 0.682 18.4% 6.4% 20.4 266 East New Britain
15 Luis Atilano RHP 0.681 12.2% 5.4% 24.3 499 East Harrisburg
16 Edgar Estanga LHP 0.680 23.3% 11.3% 23.9 275 East New Hampshire
17 Zachary McAllister RHP 0.677 19.5% 6.7% 21.7 493 East Trenton
18 Jose Ortegano LHP 0.677 20.7% 7.4% 22.1 203 Sou Mississippi
19 Alex Burnett RHP 0.676 23.9% 8.7% 22.1 218 East New Britain
20 Jeanmar Gomez RHP 0.675 20.9% 7.7% 20.9 521 East Akron
21 Tim Alderson RHP 0.674 14.9% 4.5% 20.8 308 East Connecticut
22 Donovan Hand RHP 0.673 12.5% 5.1% 23.4 409 Sou Huntsville
23 Jeff Mandel RHP 0.671 17.0% 5.8% 24.4 206 East Harrisburg
24 Travis Wood LHP 0.670 22.4% 8.0% 22.6 460 Sou Carolina
25 Amalio Diaz RHP 0.669 17.4% 6.9% 23.0 476 Tex Arkansas
26 Joshua Lindblom RHP 0.669 18.9% 5.8% 22.2 243 Sou Chattanooga
27 Robert Bramhall LHP 0.668 21.1% 11.1% 24.2 432 Sou Huntsville
28 Madison Bumgarner LHP 0.667 16.4% 7.1% 20.1 421 East Connecticut
29 Kyle Drabek RHP 0.664 18.8% 7.7% 21.7 405 East Reading
30 Michael Antonini LHP 0.664 17.0% 6.7% 24.1 505 East Binghamton
31 Michael Dunn LHP 0.664 33.0% 13.9% 24.3 230 East Trenton
32 Sean West LHP 0.664 22.2% 9.9% 23.2 284 Sou Jacksonville
33 Scott Elbert LHP 0.663 31.5% 10.9% 24.1 276 Sou Chattanooga
34 Reidier Gonzalez RHP 0.663 17.4% 6.5% 23.8 384 East New Hampshire
35 John Ely RHP 0.663 19.6% 7.8% 23.3 638 Sou Birmingham
36 Kanekoa Texeira RHP 0.662 20.0% 10.1% 23.6 424 East Trenton
37 Ryan Pope RHP 0.660 17.3% 5.6% 23.3 611 East Trenton
38 Rayner Oliveros RHP 0.660 18.7% 6.6% 24.0 273 Sou Montgomery
39 Tommy Mendoza RHP 0.658 15.8% 5.7% 22.1 544 Tex Arkansas
40 Mike McClendon RHP 0.658 16.1% 5.6% 24.4 354 Sou Huntsville
41 Cole Devries RHP 0.657 14.7% 7.5% 24.5 613 East New Britain
42 Marc Rzepczynski LHP 0.657 25.6% 10.5% 24.0 344 East New Hampshire
43 Trevor Bell RHP 0.656 18.1% 7.1% 22.9 281 Tex Arkansas
44 Felix Doubront LHP 0.655 18.8% 9.7% 21.9 536 East Portland
45 Tim Kiely RHP 0.654 12.0% 4.5% 24.0 399 Tex Arkansas
46 Jhoulys Chacin RHP 0.654 20.0% 8.1% 21.7 431 Tex Tulsa
47 Michael Stutes RHP 0.654 17.2% 9.2% 23.0 632 East Reading
48 Kyle McCulloch RHP 0.654 9.9% 5.0% 24.5 646 Sou Birmingham
49 Chad Thall LHP 0.653 21.2% 10.8% 24.1 259 East Bowie
50 Wilkins De La Rosa LHP 0.653 22.2% 11.8% 24.5 347 East Trenton
* O% stands for Out Percentage, which is explained below.    

I've had multiple requests for 2009 Dominance Factor (DF) lists, but I'm hoping this data will be even more valuable. Before you go shaking your head about another new, funky stat, hear me out.

Out percentage is meant to be a simple, production-based stat to help people create pitcher watch lists. The stat is designed to churn out production scores for pitchers that are largely unaffected by park and league. I'd be surprised if it has much predictive value. And it's meant to identify talent more than rank it. I calculate Out Percentage using the formula below:

O% = (K + .72GB + .79FB + .26LD) / (BB + IBB + K + sac hits + HBP + GB + bunts + LD + FB)

The average Out Percentage among my sample Double-A 2009 population was 0.641 -- it was 0.657 in High-A. The value, which factors in strikeouts as well as ball-in-play predictions, is essentially the reciprocal of on-base percentage against.

The coefficients assigned to each of the four outcomes in the numerator above are the percent chance each occurance will turn into an out, as researched in this article. Though not all strikeouts turn into outs, I've utilized a coefficient of one for strikeouts, opposed to something like 0.99.

Important!

I set an age maximum of 24.5 years old as of September 1st, 2009, and a total batters faced minimum of 200 for this list.

While I tried to make corrections when I saw errors, I did come across some data from the database I drew from being labeled as season total, opposed to home or road total. There may be some lines above that are only home or road samples.

This list is not our rankings of the pitchers above. Some of the top pitchers on this list are relievers who barely qualified, like Judy and Scribner.

Lastly, note that I have seen a fair amount of fluxuation in this stat, both at home versus on the road and from level to level. Be careful with guys who have small sample sizes. Kyle Drabek's Out Percentage dropped by a decent amount from High-A to Double-A (0.710 to 0.664).

 

Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.