Low-A Out Percentage Leaders

September 27, 2009

All Levels: AAA/AA/A+/A

2009 Low-A Out Percentage Leaders
Rk. Name Pos. O%* K% BB% Age TBF League Team
1 Christopher Huseby RHP 0.725 32.9% 4.6% 21.7 219 Midw Peoria
2 Henderson Alvarez RHP 0.709 17.9% 3.7% 19.4 515 Midw Lansing
3 Simon Castro RHP 0.702 27.4% 6.4% 21.4 574 Midw Fort Wayne
4 Rudy Owens LHP 0.697 23.3% 3.8% 21.7 391 SAL West Virginia
5 Bradley Tippett RHP 0.694 18.0% 4.4% 21.6 593 Midw Beloit
6 Liam Hendriks RHP 0.693 21.8% 5.3% 20.6 284 Midw Beloit
7 William Smith LHP 0.692 20.1% 5.1% 20.2 473 Midw Cedar Rapids
8 Mauricio Robles LHP 0.690 30.2% 11.5% 20.5 235 Midw West Michigan
9 Brock Huntzinger RHP 0.690 19.3% 6.1% 21.2 528 SAL Greenville
10 Brett DeVall LHP 0.689 18.3% 6.3% 19.7 224 SAL Rome
11 Joseph Cruz RHP 0.688 23.2% 6.1% 21.1 427 SAL Bowling Green
12 Dimaster Delgado LHP 0.688 25.2% 6.3% 20.5 413 SAL Rome
13 Justin De Fratus RHP 0.687 22.2% 3.5% 21.9 454 SAL Lakewood
14 Isaiah Froneberger LHP 0.686 26.8% 10.9% 20.2 265 SAL Asheville
15 Dan Meadows LHP 0.686 22.0% 6.5% 21.8 492 Midw Wisconsin
16 Hunter Strickland RHP 0.684 14.8% 3.8% 21.0 344 SAL Greenville
17 Manuel Banuelos LHP 0.684 23.5% 6.3% 18.5 442 SAL Charleston
18 John Anderson LHP 0.684 16.8% 6.6% 20.8 453 Midw Lansing
19 Ezekiel Spruill RHP 0.682 19.2% 4.8% 20.0 496 SAL Rome
20 Jesus Sanchez RHP 0.680 21.1% 7.4% 22.0 569 SAL Lakewood
21 Jordan Lyles RHP 0.676 27.8% 6.3% 18.9 601 SAL Lexington
22 Casey Crosby LHP 0.675 27.9% 11.5% 21.0 419 Midw West Michigan
23 Stolmy Pimentel RHP 0.675 20.4% 5.7% 19.6 505 SAL Greenville
24 Alexander Perez RHP 0.674 22.6% 7.1% 20.1 337 SAL Lake County
25 Trevor May RHP 0.673 29.4% 13.3% 20.0 323 SAL Lakewood
26 Matthew Moore LHP 0.673 33.7% 13.4% 20.2 522 SAL Bowling Green
27 Ezequiel Infante LHP 0.672 21.7% 4.2% 21.0 212 Midw Dayton
28 Jorge Rondon RHP 0.672 16.2% 5.7% 21.0 228 Midw Quad Cities
29 Arquimedes Nieto RHP 0.671 21.2% 6.0% 20.4 416 Midw Quad Cities
30 Chris Scholl RHP 0.671 25.6% 10.5% 21.9 351 Midw Cedar Rapids
31 Robert Bono RHP 0.670 11.0% 3.2% 20.7 601 SAL Lexington
32 Anvioris Ramirez LHP 0.670 15.1% 5.0% 21.5 219 Midw Kane County
33 Anthony Bass RHP 0.669 18.7% 6.8% 21.8 369 Midw Fort Wayne
34 Kyle McPherson RHP 0.667 15.2% 2.9% 21.8 210 SAL West Virginia
35 Jeurys Familia RHP 0.666 19.5% 8.2% 19.9 558 SAL Savannah
36 Timothy Melville RHP 0.665 23.0% 10.3% 19.9 417 Midw Burlington
37 Caleb Clay RHP 0.665 14.6% 8.3% 21.6 458 SAL Greenville
38 Robert Carson LHP 0.665 15.7% 7.8% 20.6 575 SAL Savannah
39 Parker Frazier RHP 0.664 17.1% 5.8% 20.8 572 SAL Asheville
40 Dustin Antolin RHP 0.664 19.0% 9.5% 20.1 211 Midw Lansing
41 Efrain Nieves LHP 0.663 20.2% 8.2% 19.8 425 Midw Wisconsin
42 Jason Knapp RHP 0.663 30.9% 10.9% 19.0 359 SAL Lakewood
43 Nick Barnese RHP 0.663 19.7% 8.0% 20.7 314 SAL Bowling Green
44 Randall Delgado RHP 0.662 26.0% 9.0% 19.6 542 SAL Rome
45 Adam Veres RHP 0.662 20.7% 9.2% 21.5 368 Midw Quad Cities
46 Marcos Frias RHP 0.662 20.9% 5.6% 20.7 535 SAL Hagerstown
47 Fabian Williamson LHP 0.661 23.9% 12.2% 20.9 435 SAL Greenville
48 Nicholas Tyson RHP 0.660 16.2% 6.4% 21.6 265 Midw Wisconsin
49 Wily Peralta RHP 0.659 26.5% 10.3% 20.3 446 Midw Wisconsin
50 William Kelly RHP 0.659 21.8% 2.9% 21.9 307 SAL West Virginia
* O% stands for Out Percentage, which is explained below.    

I've had multiple requests for 2009 Dominance Factor (DF) lists, but I'm hoping this data will be even more valuable. Before you go shaking your head about another new, funky stat, hear me out.

Out percentage is meant to be a simple, production-based stat to help people create pitcher watch lists. The stat is designed to churn out production scores for pitchers that are largely unaffected by park and league. I'd be surprised if it has much predictive value. And it's meant to identify talent more than rank it. I calculate Out Percentage using the formula below:

O% = (K + .72GB + .79FB + .26LD) / (BB + IBB + K + sac hits + HBP + GB + bunts + LD + FB)

The average Out Percentage among my sample Low-A 2009 population was 0.656 -- High-A was 0.657. The value, which factors in strikeouts as well as ball-in-play predictions, is essentially the reciprocal of on-base percentage against.

The coefficients assigned to each of the four outcomes in the numerator above are the percent chance each occurance will turn into an out, as researched in this article. Though not all strikeouts turn into outs, I've utilized a coefficient of one for strikeouts, opposed to something like 0.99.

Important!

I set an age maximum of 22.0 years old as of September 1st, 2009, and a total batters faced minimum of 200 for this list.

While I tried to make corrections when I saw errors, I did come across some data from the database I drew from being labeled as season total, opposed to home or road total. There may be some lines above that are only home or road samples.

This list is not our rankings of the pitchers above. Not only did quite a few relief pitchers face enough batters to qualify for it, like Huseby. Henderson Alvarez is defintely worth giving a close look, though.

Lastly, note that I have seen a fair amount of fluxuation in this stat, both at home versus on the road and from level to level. Be careful with guys who have small sample sizes.

 

Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.